Presented at: The Agricultural Economics Society's 81st Annual Conference, University of Reading, UK 2nd to 4th April 200 Calories, Obesity and Health in OECD Countries Mario Mazzocchi and W Bruce Traill University of Bologna,, Univ of Reading, Dept of Agric & Food Economics, Reading RG6 6AR wbtraill@readingacuk Abstract Theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet, weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximisation framework In this paper, we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed-effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system, with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption, obesity and health in OECD countries and the large differences among countries The empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet-related diseases, despite rising obesity rates While the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation, results are affected by data limitations Keywords: food consumption, obesity, overweight, health JEL classification: I12, C33 1
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*$ 2)34/// Calories /cap/day Fat % of energy from Sugar % of energy from Fruit and Vegetable grams/cap/day 1980 2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 Australia 305 3053 336 38 14 139 436 509 Austria 3353 363 395 388 128 115 5 61 Belgium/Luxembourg 3300 3584 380 401 10 142 436 526 Canada 2946 3589 34 36 14 155 584 686 Czech Republic na 311 na 335 na 126 na 389 Denmark 312 3439 396 365 145 134 316 68 Finland 3124 3100 38 35 118 103 340 45 France 336 3654 394 421 95 102 489 652 Germany 3340 3496 36 3 124 120 41 565 Greece 3216 321 349 369 8 85 995 1130 Hungary 3494 3483 33 380 125 12 448 483 Iceland 3252 3249 388 362 162 15 23 460 Ireland 3661 3656 358 326 128 10 380 501 Italy 3590 361 323 388 94 81 1 3 Japan 221 261 22 26 118 100 484 446 Korea 291 3058 111 22 49 110 595 56 Mexico 3123 3145 22 250 14 152 34 46 Netherlands 301 3362 383 386 142 140 481 626 New Zealand 3123 3219 365 322 140 15 490 694 Norway 3350 3484 399 36 125 123 402 500 Poland 359 335 292 301 122 130 390 404 Portugal 286 341 2 336 94 84 43 859 Slovakia na 2889 na 34 na 106 na 341 Spain 3063 331 330 403 96 9 29 29 Sweden 2992 3185 32 355 144 141 351 511 Switzerland 3491 3526 413 399 124 153 644 518 Turkey 3281 335 230 246 1 2 852 898 United Kingdom 3159 3412 390 366 134 11 39 519 United States 3155 34 362 33 14 15 580 652 B=+ ## 22
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* Calories Obesity Diabetes Heart Disease PRICEF -0065 (-2319) INC 0143 (694) FAT 0011 (0349) SUGAR 0036 (2686) FRV -0005 (-048) AGE -004 (-1528) CAL 0196 (152) URB 2180 (1681) 2415 (1949) -1531 (-1419) SMOKE 0010 (0521) -0033 (-1552) OBESE 00 (1125) -0035 (-1191) SATF 000 (0543) -0052 (-094) HEXP -0145 (-5313) -0100 (-2462) TREND -011 (-0539) -132 (-3981) Sample 195-2002 1990-2002 1990-2002 1990-2002 Obs 62 321 284 311 R 2 083 084 052 092 AR(1) 0844 (38606) 0880 (3534) 004 (18268) 0885 (33855) DW (mean) 208 152 248 222 Note: Student-t ratios between brackets Values significant at 005 sl are reported in bold, values significant at 010 sl in italics 24
*% 81 5 Dependent variable (log of fixed effects) Explanatory variable (logs) Calories Obesity Diabetes Heart disease Constant 665 (42401) -11328 (-3934) -3338 (-3008) 14082 (15550) Uncertainty Avoidance 009 (2081) Power Distance Masculinity Individualism -099 (-2940) 03 (3486) Adj R2 011 022 029 25
!66$&9:% 8 Fixed Effect Estimates Country Calories Obesity Diabetes Ischaemic Heart Disease Australia 690 (256) -51 (546) -16 (496) 166 (423) Austria 05 (2613) -6 (503) -635 (458) 138 (386) Belgium 05 (2624) -866 (548) -54 (506) 148 (428) Canada 695 (253) -88 (526) -653 (481) 142 (40) Czech Republic 01 (2612) -1 (516) -1 (43) 161 (398) Denmark 696 (2588) -82 (535) -685 (491) 139 (414) Finland 691 (252) -53 (494) -64 (449) 140 (38) France 06 (2636) -806 (522) -04 (45) 1656 (402) Germany 03 (2620) -84 (539) -69 (493) 182 (41) Greece 13 (21) -83 (492) -03 (44) 166 (38) Hungary 12 (228) -29 (499) -626 (455) 180 (385) Ireland 08 (2680) -4 (490) -635 (444) 135 (3) Italy 08 (2656) -810 (505) -609 (461) 164 (389) Japan 681 (2604) -935 (503) -689 (458) 159 (38) Korea, Rep 690 (264) -98 (528) -586 (484) 163 (411) Mexico 01 (2803) -49 (51) -492 (44) 146 (401) Netherlands 694 (2566) -93 (502) -605 (454) 1681 (38) Norway 695 (262) -9 (534) -680 (490) 186 (415) New Zealand 695 (250) -815 (524) -06 (45) 132 (404) Poland 08 (292) -52 (495) -646 (450) 131 (381) Portugal 09 (219) -14 (482) -523 (431) 1632 (30) Slovak Republic 695 (2584) -04 (484) -605 (440) 195 (31) Spain 01 (2611) -95 (520) -666 (46) 1685 (402) Sweden 691 (2565) -832 (532) -13 (48) 154 (411) Switzerland 69 (2555) -851 (504) -62 (462) 105 (389) Turkey 1 (2948) -68 (503) -13 (455) 1651 (390) United Kingdom 698 (2604) -69 (539) -1 (495) 19 (418) United States 00 (25) -28 (526) -631 (480) 183 (408) Note: Student-t ratios between brackets 26