METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING IN AFRICA L.A.OGALLO IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) Formerly known as Drought Monitoring Centre - Nairobi (DMCN)
INTRODUCTION DROUGHT IS A SLOW ONSET HAZARD YET ITS IMPACTS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN RAPID ONSET HAZARDS eg floods IN MANY COUNTRIES OF AFRICA STILL THREATENS THE BASIC LIVELIHOOD OF THE SOCIETY; NATIONAL / REGIONAL POVERTY REDUCTION / SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS IN AFRICA
DROUGHT CHARATERISTICS IN AFRICA Droughts are very common No month or year continent is drought free Risk and Vulnerability of the society to drought is increasing in Africa YEAR AFTER YEAR NEED FOR SPECIFIC statement on drought form the conference
CLIMATE EXTREMES:
THE CROPS DRIED UP IN RWANDA
NOMADS MOVE ANIMALS TO CITIES, PRIVATE LAND, etc
FLOODS PRECEDE / FOLLOW MANY DROUGHTS
CLIMATE EXTREMES:
EXPERINCES OF THE AFRICAN REGIONAL DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRES, and the (NMHSs)-NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL and HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES MAJOR AFRICAN CLIMATE CENTRES 30 20 30 NIAMEY, ACMAD 10 20 0 ACMAD, NIAMEY 10-10 0-20 -10-30 ATLANTIC OCEAN ATLANTIC INDIAN OCEAN DMCN, Nairobi, ICPAC, Nairobi, -20-30 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 OCEAN DMCH- Harare INDIAN OCEAN -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 DMCH- Harare
EXPERIENCES OF ICPAC AND OTHER AFRICAN REGIONAL CENTRES ICPAC WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1989 BY THE MEMBER COUNTRIES THROUGH WMO / UNDP CURRENTLY HAVE 10 MEMBER COUNTRIES CURRECT MAJOR FUNDING OF IGAD / ICPAC is by USAID / OFDA and REDSO, NOAA / OGP (demonstration projects); implemented by WMO, major collaborator by IRI
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT MONITORING PRODUCTS AT THE AFRICAN CENTRES
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT products for monitoring, prediction and early warning Products of Regional Centres and NMHSs/ WMO History of Past droughts from Met data archives for risk zoning and building of scenarios Causes of drought Drought characteristics: onset, end, duration, severity, hot spots, etc Real time / Current and near real time information Future expectation Prediction and early warning
OMM WMO / NMHSs observation network WMO
OMM SPACE BASED OBSERVATION WMO
OMM NEW OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEMS WMO Argo floats
CUASES OF THE AFRICAN DROUGHTS Understanding of the science of the African droughts improving African droughts are largely associated with precipitation deficits that components of the global / regional climate variability Rainfall anomalies in Africa have been linked to global / regional general circulation anomalies including those associated with El Nino / La Nina events
SEASONAL RAINFALL IN GHA AND ENSO PHASES a RAINFALL SEASONALITY ENSO PHASE- ONSET; PEAK OR CESSATION PHASE ROLES OF TOPOGRAPHY; INDIAN /ATLANTIC; INLAND LAKES; b c d
32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00 40.00 42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00 40.00 42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 16.00 The most Common analogue years 16.00 14.00 1972 14.00 1986 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00 40.00 42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 4.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00 40.00 42.00 44.00 46.00 48.00 16.00 14.00 1976 16.00 14.00 1990 12.00 12.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 4.00 4.00
Cumulative rainfall performance
Drought Severity Index for June 2004
NOAA Satellite vegetation imagery showing rainfall performance over the GHA
DROUGHT PREDICTION AND ERALY WARNING SIMPLE EMPIRICAL METHODS DYNAMICAL METHODS
Annual cycle during 1979-1999 obs rainfall in mm/dy 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months ccm3 ecm3 ecm4 nsip ncep giss3 giss4 col2 col3
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 The ECHAM4.5 model simulation of Interannual variability during the season October to December over Eastern Africa. Years ec45mean ec45m15 CRU_OBS ST_OBS Rain Index
Climate Outlook for September to December 2004
METEROLOGICAL MONITORING, PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNING DOROUGHT Creeps in very slowly ; IT IS very difficult to QUANTIFY ALL DROGHTS WITH MET. DEFINATION Integrated Drought Early Warning systems still lacking in most African countries NEED FOR multidisciplinary variables / indices
WEATHER / CLIMATE INFORMATION & PREDICTION PRODUCTS WATER TH SECTOR AGRICUL TURE SECTOR HEALTH SECTOR ENERGY SECTOR Intergraded MANAGEMENT
RECOMMENDATIONS Need for SPECIAL RESOLUTION addressing drought challenges in Africa from the conference: Recognize the coming UNDP drought meeting NEED FOR Sustainable drought Early warning funding Availability of some locally based multi disciplinary drought indices / tools that could capture the complex cumulative slow onset drought impacts- eg UNDP drought project in Kenya. Skilled multi disciplinary human resources Strengthening of regional / national capacities to observe, receive, interpret and process basic data including remotely sensed data Improvement of the current communication systems for timely information dissemination / feedback
Enhance community awareness and education Need to integrate some of the good traditional practices Many African countries have had traditional drought coping strategies that have been used to cope with droughts for several generations- UNEP Project Development of national, sub-regional and regional drought / disaster management policies Such policies should be integral component of regional / national poverty reduction / sustainable development strategies Strengthen linkages with Regional/ International centres
GLOBAL / REGIONAL CLIMATE MONITORING GLOBAL CLIMATE CETRES NMHSs /WMO and REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES (e.g. ICPAC) Networking, regional climate models, Computing facilities, Human capacity building GLOBAL CLIMATE PRODUCTS INCLUDING SSTs AND ENSO OUTLOOKS
Web page:www.dmcn.org E-mail:logallo@meteo.go.ke Phone:254-20-578340 FAX:254-20-578343