From Vulnerability to Resilience And the Tools to Get There Out of Harm s Way Partnership for the Delaware Estuary August 1, 2012
Today s Presentation Tour of New Jersey Challenges Definitions so we re all on the same page Tools developed by the NJ Coastal Management Office NOAA CZM Grant Coastal Community Vulnerability Assessment Mapping Protocol (Cook Book) Getting to Resilience Questionnaire Partnering to get these tools out
Challenges: Coastal Hazards Risks Shallow Coastal Flooding Nor easters Tropical Storms Hurricanes Storm Surge Sea Level Rise Erosion Wind October 1991 Storm Photo Courtesy of NJDEP Coastal Engineering
Sea Level Rise (SLR) New Jersey SLR Trend: ~ 4 mm/year (~15.8 in/century) 1 Delaware Estuary SLR Projections: ~ 19.7 59.1 in x 2100 2 IPCC Global SLR Projections: 7.1 23.2 in x 2100 3 Global projections Underestimate local rates of sea level rise! 1. NOAA. 2010. Sea Level Rise Trends. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ 2. Partnership for the Delaware Estuary. 2010. Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary. P. 6 3. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report 8
Historic Storm Tracks 1850-2008 GIS Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center 9
However, Many People Don t Realize What s Vulnerable Today! 1893 Hurricane, Asbury Park Atlantic City Press Nor Ida, Wildwood, NJ Asbury Park Press Nor Ida, Seaside Park NJ Coastal Management 1944 Hurricane, LBI NJ State Police Museum Storm of 62, Sea Isle City State of New Jersey 10
RISK VULNERABILITY RESILIENCE Definitions Risk -- the type and severity of a hazard and its frequency of occurrence. [1] Vulnerability the degree to which a human or natural system is unable to cope with adverse effects. [2] Resilience -- the ability of a system to respond and recover from disasters. [3] [1] US Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. 2007. How Resilient is Your Coastal Community? [2] Worldwatch Institute. 2009. State of the World. [3] S. Cutter (2009)
Characterizing Vulnerability Geographic Vulnerability Risk Social Vulnerability Infrastructure Vulnerability Built Social Vulnerability Environment Ecosystem Environmental Vulnerability Integrity Total Vulnerability Total Vulnerability Images: NJ.com, NY Times, NYC Audobon
Characterizing Geographic Vulnerability Soil Runoff Flood Frequency Soil Drainage Storm Surge (SLOSH Model) Elevation LiDAR (2ft Contours) Geomorphic Region
Coastal Vulnerability Index Identifying Susceptible Land Areas Environmental Constraint Model Classifies Variation in Natural Vulnerability Scalable to Municipal, County, State Utilizes Existing Data Sources Building upon Existing Methodologies 14
Coastal Ecosystem Services Flood Regulation Freshwater Supply Waste Filtration (N, P, pathogens) Nutrient Cycling (N fixing, decomposition) Aesthetic & Recreation Gas Regulation Habitat Soil Formation Pollination
Coastal Ecosystem Services
Infrastructure Vulnerability Roads & Bridges Police Stations Water Treatment & Transport Hospitals Fire Stations Schools Power Generation Railroads
Characterizing Social Vulnerability Population Sq. Mile per Housing Units per Sq. Mile Households without English Fluency Individuals without a High School Education Individuals Below 5 Years of Age Individuals Above 65 Years of Age Disabled Individuals Below the Poverty Level Single Mothers as Head of Household RANK EACH PARAMETER BY RELATIVE RISK UNION LAYERS CUMULATIVE GEOGRAPHIC REPRESENTATION OF PHYSICAL RISK
Social Vulnerability Index
Coastal Vulnerability Mapping
Putting it all together
Present Coastal Vulnerability 22
Present Storm Surge Models 23
Flood Insurance Coverage & Potential Storm Surge Inundation NFIP DFIRM 100-YEAR FLOOD 500-YEAR FLOOD FLOODWAY 24
Coastal Vulnerability + 0.5 Meter SLR 25
Coastal Vulnerability + 1.0 Meter SLR 26
Coastal Vulnerability + 1.5 Meters SLR 27
Getting to Resilience Questionnaire To provide a forum for local leaders to discuss existing and future opportunities to improve hazard resiliency. To identify local government education and technical needs. To emphasize the existing mechanisms that can reduce vulnerability and improve resilience. 28
Getting to Resilience Questionnaire Five Sections Risk and Vulnerability Assessments Public Engagement Planning Integration Disaster Preparedness and Recovery Hazard Mitigation and Implementation Zoning Map Municipal Master Plan All-Hazards Plan Stormwater Management Flood Mitigation Plan Emergency Operations Evacuation Plans Land/Open Space Conservation Wetland Restoration Post-Storm Redevelopment Plan Capital Improvements Plan Local Ordinances 29
Getting to Resilience Questionnaire Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative (CCCAI) Plan, Ordinance, and Code Checklist Municipal Master Plan Hazard Mitigation Plan Floodplain Management Plan Open Space Plan Stormwater Management Plan Emergency Operation Plan Continuity of Operations Plan Evacuation Plan Disaster Recovery Plan Capital Improvements Plan Economic Development Plan/Strategy Historic Preservation Plan Restoration Project Information Zoning Ordinance Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance Subdivision Ordinance Post-Disaster Redevelopment Ordinance or Plan Building Code. Other: Note: Your community may not have all of the listed documents or they may be elements in other listed plans. The project team already has access to the checked off plans or information
GIS Vulnerability Mapping Considerations Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative (CCCAI) Social Vulnerability (Census Data by Block or Block Group) Infrastructure Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability Population Density per sq. mile Evacuation Routes Wetlands Housing Units per sq. mile Roads and Bridges Forestlands % Elderly, Age 65+ Railroads Farmland % Youth, Age 5 and under Emergency Shelters Environmentally Sensitive Lands % Youth, Age 17 and under Police & Fire Conservation Easements* % Minorities Nursing Homes* Blue Acres Land* % Individuals Below the Poverty Level Municipal Buildings* Green Acres Land* % Households without English Fluency Public Works* Brownfield Sites % Individuals Without a High School Education Schools Manufacturing Sites % Disabled Individuals Houses of Worship* Landfills % Single Parent, Head of Household Community Center(s) or Meeting Halls* Drycleaners % Single Mothers, Head of Household Shopping Centers* Gas Stations % Properties Built Prior to the NFIP Libraries, Museums* Point Source Pollution Surface Water Discharge % of Housing that are Mobile Homes Business District* Known Contamination Sites Other: Historic Homes* Other: Parks* Landmarks* Dams and Levees Stormwater Discharge
Getting to Resilience Questionnaire PLANS, CODES, & ZONING Municipal Master Plan All-Hazards Plan Stormwater Management Flood Mitigation Plan Emergency Operations Evacuation Plans Land/Open Space Conservation Wetland Restoration Post-Storm Redevelopment Plan Capital Improvement Plan Local Ordinances New Jersey Coastal Management Office Coastal Community Climate Adaptation Initiative 2010-2011
Coastal Management and Partner Products Inundation and Vulnerability GIS Data (Pilot Studies Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties and northern Monmouth County) Cookbook of the Mapping Protocol Getting to Resilience Questionnaire Online GTR CMO,JCNERR, BBP, SJ 33
Questions? Thank you Special thanks to Leigh Wood, CSC Fellow to NJCZM Office 2009-2011 And to NOAA, NOS, OCRM for federal funding through CZMA section 309 Contact Information: Dorina Frizzera Environmental Scientist I Dorina.Frizzera@dep.state.nj.us 609-777-3251 http://www.nj.gov/dep/cmp 36