The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in Puget Sound

The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in Puget Sound Christopher Krembs, Marine Monitoring Unit, EAP, Ecology The Drought The Blob El Niño

Warmest first four months since 1981, (Source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space)

The snow has melted early or came down as rain April 2010 March 2015 Feb 2013 Photo by Bill Baccus, Olympic National Park June 2015 Hurricane Ridge: winter snow is gone. Low snow has only occurred twice since 1960 (1977 & 2005).

Many rivers and streams are much below normal By June 1, 2015, most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile Most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile in greater Puget Sound Basin Several western regions are experiencing record low flows

The Fraser River has been running very high. The freshet is much earlier in 2015 Fraser River is the largest freshwater source of Salish Sea affecting estuarine circulation Higher than normal Lower than normal Expected

The Blob + El Niño invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts 2013-2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, 29 January 2014 Sea Surface Anomalies Persistent mass of warm water affects: ocean currents, marine ecosystems inland weather One week mean sea surface temperature anomaly 8-14 March 2015.

The Blob in 2014, (NOAA)

The Blob hits Washington shores! Timing of coastal winds is important! Upwelling index (NOAA) YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2014-17 -72-34 -14 2 24 34 35-1 -62-49 -88 2015-49 -27-18

Until September 2014 upwelled water keeps warm water offshore spring-neap cycle snowpack Coastal Upwelling Victoria Fraser San Juan Islands Seattle Skagit upwelled water low DO, high nutrients estuarine circulation tidal mixing over the sill Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

After September 2014 downwelling starts and brings in warm water spring-neap cycle snowpack Downwelling Victoria Fraser San Juan Islands Seattle Skagit downwelled warmer, lower nutrients, lower salinity, LOWER DO estuarine circulation tidal mixing over the sill Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Ecology s Marine Monitoring Stations Sampled by a great team to full depth every month Carol Maloy Julianne Ruffner Suzan Pool Mya Keyzers Christopher Krembs Laura Friedenberg Julia Bos Brooke McIntyre Skip Albertson

Eyes Over Puget Sound Marine Long-Term Monitoring Program Conditions were dominated by warm water associated with the NE Pacific Ocean warm surface anomaly. Starting in October, temperatures are the highest on our record since 1989. Oxygen and salinities are becoming lower. Higher Temperature! Lower Salinity Lower Oxygen Apr. 2015: Red boxes show that the water measured is warmer than any of our measurements since 1989.

Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma) Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months

Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma) Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months

Ferry monitoring observations 6-8-2015 Surface water (3m) in places already >15 C In spatial context: In temporal context: Pockets of sea surface temperatures are now reaching >15 C near Kingston. Temperature are favorable for harmful algae species to bloom. The Victoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The sensors allow us to get surface transects of temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical measurements between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.

What will the summer of 2015 bring?

The Blob is still offshore! (NOAA) 2014 May 2015 June 2015 Blob is ~500 km offshore

Will upwelled water in 2015 stay offshore? spring-neap cycle reduced snowpack Coastal Upwelling Victoria Fraser San Juan Islands Seattle Rivers estuarine circulation tidal mixing over the sill Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Will an El Niño deepen the nutrient rich water? spring-neap cycle reduced snowpack Coastal Upwelling Victoria Fraser San Juan Islands Seattle Rivers dense water too deep estuarine circulation tidal mixing over the sill Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Will summer squalls import more warm water? spring-neap cycle reduced snowpack Downwelling Victoria Fraser San Juan Islands Seattle Rivers estuarine circulation tidal mixing over the sill Upwelling Snow-fed rivers Rain-fed rivers Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Speculating about the summer 2015 No matter in what direction the coastal wind will blow, we can expect a reduced renewal of water in Puget Sound. Puget Sound water will stay warm leading to potentially more regional water quality issues. Expect very different growth conditions for marine species.

The marine food web is responding (the news is coming in ) Energy-rich northern zooplankton species were replaced by southern copepods at end of 2014. Peter Chandler (Canada), San Diego meeting The Blob, May 2015) Much more gelatinous zooplankton, 'Crunchies' vs. 'Squishies, (John Dower, UVIC, CBC NES 6/8 here). A record high 96% diversion of returning Fraser River sockey salmon via northern Vancouver Island (LaPointe et al. 2015 report, in prep). Largest toxic algae bloom stretching from Central California to British Columbia. NOAA (Seattle Times 6/16 here). First time PSP, DSP and domoic acid in Washington at the same time. DOH (Seattle Times 6/16 here).

Leveraging our flight time Empty transit flights Seattle - Olympia with camera on board Document blooms, debris, animal aggregations, oil sheens, water boundaries Unique perspective, minimal extra cost

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams A. 3:11 PM B. 2:22 PM (6-4-2015) jellyfish boat jellyfish jellyfish jellyfish jellyfish jellyfish Bloom jellyfish jellyfish jellyfish Large patches of jellyfish forming in finger inlets of South Sound. Location: A. Eld Inlet; B. Budd Inlet on 6-4-2015 (South Sound).

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams A. B. Debris Debris Debris Large ribbons and patches of organic debris in many places of South Sound. Location: A. North of McNeil Island, B. Nisqually Reach (South Sound), 3:16 PM.

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams boat Bloom Plume Internal waves Sediment plume of Puyallup River with internal waves meandering into Bay and mixing with a bloom. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:28 PM.

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams boat ship Bloom Debris Large Noctiluca bloom surfacing and gathering in large quantities at tidal front. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams Debris Bloom Large Noctiluca bloom held back front off Maury Island Marine Park and Saltwater State Park. Location: East of Vashon Island (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams boat Debris Large Noctiluca bloom has surfaced near northeast Bainbridge Island across Discovery Park, Seattle. Location: Bainbridge Island (Central Sound), 3:45 PM.

Eyes Over Puget Sound (EOPS), 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams boat Debris barge Debris Debris Noctiluca bloom starting to surface and getting washed onto beaches. Location: Port Madison (Central Sound), 3:47 PM.

Will the situation become bigger with El Niño? What will the future look like?