Africa-EU Partnership MONITORING FOR ENVIRONMENT AND SECURITY IN AFRICA From Earth Observation to Policy Making Advancing Sustainable Development in Africa CONTINENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN September 2016 HIGHLIGHTS From May to September 2016 Long dry spells at the end of June and early July, causing farmers to re-sow rainfed crops in limited areas of Northern Burkina Faso and Niger. Delays in the start of the rainy season in limited areas of Senegal and The Gambia. 6 2 3 1 4 Overall favourable conditions prevailing, giving good prospects for crops and rangelands in western Africa. Northern part of eastern Africa recovering from drought. 10 7 Vegetation growth conditions Very bad 3 5 11 Warmer than usual sea surface temperature could possibly reduce fish production to the north of Mauritius, in Equatorial Atlantic, the Canary Current and the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystems. Bad Very good Fish abundance Potential reduction Potential increase Water Basins Good recharge 8 12 9 Colder than usual sea surface temperature with higher chlorophyll concentration along the coast of Kenya, Tanzania and the Mozambique Channel creating optimal conditions for fish growth. Intensification of upwelling has created optimal conditions for fish growth in the Gulf of Guinea. x Content Crop growing areas (JRC-MARS crop mask) Area number, referred to in the text Figure 1: Map of highlights Climate overview and outlook Continental development of vegetation Protected areas Agriculture: Crops and rangeland Fishing resources Water resources About MESA Good recharge in the Niger and Lake Chad basins, and in the north of the Congo Basin.
CLIMATE OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK An early start of the African monsoon season was observed over much of the Sahel. Well above average precipitation was observed over much of western Africa, with exceptional precipitation leading to floods in Niger and Mali during May to July 2016. PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT During May and July 2016 below average to well below average precipitation has been observed over Gabon, southern Congo, southwestern DRC, Rwanda, southern Uganda and southern Kenya with significant deficit precipitation over eastern Tanzania (figure 2). Western Africa, Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia recorded between 125 and 175 percent of the average precipitation with a peak of above 175 percent of average over south-eastern Sudan, Guinea and Sierra Leone. Near average SSTs were observed over central and eastern parts of the Indian ocean. An evolution towards above average over the western tropical Indian Ocean and persistence in the eastern parts are more likely during the coming three to four months (figure 3 and 4). PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK Figure 3: Seasonal Precipitation forecast for September-October- November 2016 (issued on 31 August 2016) 1 2 Figure 2: Precipitation as % of long term average (1981-2010) for May TEMPERATURE ASSESSMENT (near surface) From April to July 2016 temperature anomalies of more than +2 C were recorded over the Sahara, the Sahel and part of southern Africa with a peak of more than + 3 C in the east of Egypt and South Africa. RECENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK 3 2 Pacific Ocean: Near average sea surface temperature (SSTs) were observed in the ENSO region since June 2016 evolving towards weak La Niña in July 2016. Most model outputs and expert assessments indicate a neutral to weak la Nina during the northern Hemisphere autumn and persisting through winter 2016/17. 4 Atlantic Ocean The equatorial Atlantic SSTs were near average during the past few months. However, near to below average SSTs characterised much of the Gulf of Guinea coast. Most models and expert assessments are favourable for a persistence of these patterns during coming months. The tropical south Atlantic was characterised by near to above average SSTs during the past months. Most models and expert assessments are favourable for persistence during coming months including current above average SSTs along the coasts of central Africa. The tropical North Atlantic SSTs were near to above average during the past few months. The persistence of this pattern is more likely during the coming few months. Indian Ocean: The western tropical Indian Ocean SSTs have been near average during the past month. 1: Near to below average precipitation very likely. 2: Near to above average precipitation very likely. 3: Above average precipitation very likely with disruption in precipitation distribution. Normal to late cessation of precipitation season. 4: Below average precipitation very likely. Normal to late onset of precipitation season with disruption in precipitation distribution. Figure 4: Significant weather and climate events expected for September-October-November 2016 (issued on 31 August 2016) 2 MESA Continental Environmental Bulletin
CONTINENTAL DEVELOPMENT OF VEGETATION Medium and low resolution satellites produce a lot of data due to the high frequency revisiting period at continental level. Statistical methods like cluster classification can be applied to NDVI time series, to get an overview of the patterns of vegetation evolution within the period of interest. It can then be used to reduce the field of analysis by excluding desert areas and focusing on areas where agricultural monitoring is relevant. Figure 5 below shows on the right the 8 cluster classes over Africa and on the left the corresponding average NDVI profiles, using the same colour schemes, grouped by colours into similar profiles. It depicts mainly: - the desert area (cluster 8), areas with little NDVI variation highlighting the arid areas with low vegetation production (cluster 7), the perennial vegetation zone (cluster 1 mainly in Central Africa), the ongoing season from March with different starting dates and vegetation activities levels (blues for clusters 6, 4 and 2) mainly over the Sudan-Sahelian zone, the out of season area (purples for clusters 5 and 3) mainly over the southern area. The algorithm is assigning each pixel to the most similar cluster according to statistical proximity factors. Each cluster is characterised by a specific profile depicting the evolution of the NDVI during the period. It gives an overview of the main vegetation growth pattern over space and time. Figure 5: Cluster classification of the 10 day NDVI from February to August 2016 The same method can be applied to the NDVI anomalies (Relative difference= [Current NDVI Average NDVI]/Average NDVI) to identify problem areas, when they started, how long they last and how important is the vegetation growth anomaly compared to the average. Figure 6 below shows: - in dark green (cluster 1), areas characterised by a much higher NDVI level (up to +0.7) indicating a higher vegetation production compared to the usual values at that period of the year; in light green (cluster 2), the NDVI has constantly increased compared to the average value, showing an overall good vegetation development; in brown (cluster 3), only the southern area shows negative anomalies (-0.1) with a slight improvement towards August. It should mean that in that area, vegetation conditions were below normal mostly during the last phase of the crop and grass cycle. Figure 6: Cluster classification of the 10 day NDVI anomaly from February to August 2016 September 2016 3
PROTECTED AREAS SUMMARY IN AFRICA: Good rains are observed in major parts of eastern and western Africa and good forage production expected. The maps below (figures 7 and 8) show the vegetation and rainfall anomalies for protected areas in Africa. The reporting period for this bulletin corresponds to wetter conditions in western Africa and the northern part of eastern Africa, and to drier conditions in southern Africa and the southern part of eastern Africa. Southern Africa is still recovering from the drought from the previous reporting period and presents average to below average conditions, while western Africa and eastern Africa present average to above average conditions. Figure 7: Rainfall anomaly on protected areas for May to August 2016 Figure 8: Vegetation anomaly on protected areas for May to August 2016 EASTERN AFRICA: Protected areas from the northern countries of eastern Africa recovering from the drought from the previous period. Rest of eastern Africa protected areas received average to above average rainfall and good forage production expected. Most of the protected areas received average to above average rainfall, which favoured vegetation development and subsequently lead to better forage available for wildlife in the protected areas (figure 9). Figure 10 shows that three (3) consecutive seasons were below average for both rainfall and vegetation, and vegetation is slowly recovering for this season, offering a relief for the area. This relief might be for a short period as the seasonal forecast for September to December (ICPAC Aug 2016) for most parts of the northern and southern sectors indicates average to below average rainfall. The rest of eastern Africa is expected to have better conditions. Figure 9: Vegetation and rainfall over the Southern National Park in South Sudan The northern part of eastern Africa suffered during previous seasons from drought, due to the failure of rains caused by El Niño. The area is now recovering and average to above average rainfall is observed, leading to better vegetation development (figure 10). Figure 10 : Vegetation and rainfall over Awash National Park, Ethiopia 4 MESA Continental Environmental Bulletin
PROTECTED AREAS SOUTHERN AFRICA: Protected areas not yet recovered from the drought. Less fire activity over the southern part of the region. Drought conditions continue over most protected areas especially over the southern half of the region, due to the below normal rainfall induced by El Niño during the 2015/16 season. Consequently, most protected areas have limited forage available to support wildlife. The situation is more severe in Manjirenji park, Zimbabwe where vegetation is below normal (figure 11). Figure 13: Fire and Vegetation over Limpopo National Park, Mozambique While vegetation growth has generally been poor in most protected areas, those in the northern part of southern Africa show favourable vegetation conditions providing more fuel load and consequently more fires have been detected, for example in Salonga National Park, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (figure 14). Figure 11 : Vegetation Matrix for Manjirenji Protected area, Zimbabwe Due to the below average vegetation development during the previous season the fire fuel load has been reduced across many parks with Central Kalahari Game reserve in Botswana and Limpopo National Park, Mozambique (figures 12 and 13) experiencing less fire activity. Figure 14: Fire and Vegetation over Salonga National Park in Democratic Republic of Congo Figure 12: Fire and Vegetation over Central Kalahari Game Reserve, Botswana The seasonal forecasts for the upcoming season (October to April) indicate normal to above normal rainfall. This will help to favour vegetation recovery in most protected areas which are currently experiencing drought conditions. WESTERN AFRICA: Good forage production for wildlife and livestock expected in the region In western Africa, this reporting period corresponds to the major rain season (May to October) and is still ongoing. This season is progressing well and in general average to above average rainfall is observed over most of the protected areas, consequently vegetation development is also progressing well, reaching in some protected areas the long term maximum (figure 15). The seasonal forecast for the rest of the season indicates that the region will generally receive average to above average rainfall. Therefore, good forage production within and around the protected areas is expected for wildlife and livestock respectively. Figure 15: Vegetation and rainfall over Kongossambougou Faunal Reserve, Mali September 2016 5
AGRICULTURE CROPS AND RANGELAND The reporting period of this bulletin is from May to August 2016. This period coincides with the growing season for western Africa and the northern part of eastern Africa. SOUTHERN AFRICA: In the southern African region, the period covered by this bulletin is the dry season except for the Cape province of South Africa. The region normally receives rain between October and April. An overall increase in rainfall compared to last year is expected over most parts of the Southern African region. The seasonal rainfall outlook for the coming season shows that the rainfall performance is going to be better compared to last year due to the expected weak La Niña conditions. Most of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2016, and for January to March (JFM) 2017 (SARCOF 2016). However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) northern Angola, most of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the islands states of Seychelles and eastern-most Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the season. Close monitoring of the evolution of the season in the areas predicted to receive normal to below-normal rainfall is needed. Currently, the vegetation performance over rangeland areas is below normal across many parts of the SADC region due to the poor performance of the 2015/16 rainfall season which led to poor vegetation growth. While the rainfall in February and March favoured vegetation recovery, the rangeland over most parts of the Southern half of the region are currently not able to sustain livestock, as grazing conditions continue to deteriorate over various parts of the region. The situation is more severe in southern parts of Zimbabwe and Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi, Angola and Madagascar which had severe drought for the last two consecutive years. In places which had accumulated above average biomass, most of the pastures have been destroyed by wildfires due to the rapid drying up of vegetation (figure 16). Figure 16 : Fire and Vegetation over Menabe, Madagascar WESTERN AFRICA (Figure 1, areas 1, 2 and 3): Overall favourable conditions for crops and rangelands. In the southern parts of Guinea Gulf countries: late onset, but normal completion of the 2016 long rainy season. In the guinea savanna, sudanian and sahelian zones: early start in general, with delays and/or long dry spells resulting in reseeding of crops in some areas. Some extreme rainfall events causing flooding, property damage and loss of life in several areas. Overall good spatial and temporal distribution of rains after mid-july, suggesting good prospects for crops and rangelands. Western Africa is characterised by a northern zone with a monomodal rainfall regime (from May to October) and a southern zone along the Gulf of Guinea with a bimodal rainfall regime (from March to mid-august and from September to November-December). The 2016 long rainy season, after a relatively late start, ended in generally good conditions in the southern parts of Guinea Gulf countries. As for the single rainy season of the northern parts of these countries and other countries in western Africa, it started in April-May and was marked in general by extreme rainfall events that caused some flooding with extensive damage (including to crops) and even loss of life (figure 17). For example, North-central Burkina Faso, most regions of Mali, Agadez and Diffa regions in Niger, Boke region in Guinea and northern Sierra Leone all recorded excess rainfall in early July (figure 17 and area 3). The Kaolack and Kaffrine regions in Senegal went from a situation of rainfall deficit early in the season to record rainfall of more than 70 mm, against 50 mm on average, during the 3rd dekad of July (figure 18 and area 2). Figure 18 : Vegetation and rainfall time series over Kaolack, Senegal Figure 17 : Vegetation and rainfall time series over Sikasso,, Mali The start of the season has been normal to early overall, with vegetation index profiles similar to or above the average (figures 17 and 19). 6 MESA Continental Environmental Bulletin
AGRICULTURE CROPS AND RANGELAND WESTERN AFRICA: Continued However, dry spells that occurred in June and early July led to delays and/or reseeding of crops in some areas, particularly in the groundnut basin of Senegal, northern Burkina Faso and Niger (figure 18 and area 1). Since mid-july, the good spatial and temporal distribution of the rain has led to an overall satisfactory water-supply condition for crops, auguring normal to above average crop yields. The same holds for rangelands that had a good level of growth as at August 31, with areas where the start was delayed beginning to catch-up to the normal (figure 17, 18 and 19). This results in good fodder availability and good drinking conditions for livestock, except in extreme north-eastern Chad, the North of the Tahoua region in Niger, some areas in the Tombouctou and Gao regions in Mali, and the Oualata and Ouad Naga willayas in Mauritania where some rainfall deficits were observed. Figure 19 : Vegetation and rainfall time series over Assaba, Mauritania EASTERN AFRICA (Figure 1, area 4): Recovery from the El Nino impacts in the northern sector of the East Africa is observed during this period with expected good harvests. Good rains and vegetation development observed in equatorial and southern sectors of eastern Africa. In eastern Africa, the reporting period of this bulletin (May August 2016) falls within the main rainy season for the northern and central sectors (May to November), and the start of the short rain season for the equatorial and southern sectors. In the northern sector, the area suffered in the previous reporting period (September April) with a drought caused by the failure of the rains due to El Niño. This led to below average vegetation development for crops and pasture (figure 20). Figure 21 : Vegetation and rainfall time series over Jonglei, South Sudan Figure 20: Vegetation and rainfall time series over Amhara in Ethiopia For this period, the ongoing rainy season has started in good time and is progressing well with near average to above average rainfall (figure 21 and area 4). Good crop and pasture production is expected for this region in October/November. In the equatorial sector of eastern Africa, the main rain season is progressing (March to November) and good rainfall has been observed which translated into good vegetation development (figure 21). In the equatorial sector of eastern Africa, the season came to an end in May and the second rain season is yet to start in September/October. As reported in the previous bulletin, the season was characterised by a delay in the start of the season but recovered, and good rains were observed which subsequently favoured good vegetation development. This is expected to have produced good crop and pasture production. For the coming rain season (September December), the rainfall forecast for the region indicates increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over the western equatorial sector (southern Sudan, South Sudan, western and southern Uganda and western Ethiopia). The rest of the region is likely to have below normal rainfall (ICPAC, August 2016). September 2016 7
FISHING RESOURCES CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW: Warmer than usual conditions in the South West Indian Ocean and some parts of the eastern Atlantic except west of Seychelles, south of Mauritius, the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem and the Gulf of Guinea. Sea surface temperatures over much of the Indian Ocean have been above average from March to August 2016 except regions west of Seychelles and to the south of Mauritius (figure 22). Chlorophyll concentration was above the climatological average close to the African coast for the same period and close to normal Chl-a concentration in the zone surrounding Mauritius (figure 23). In the eastern Atlantic, sea surface temperature from March to August 2016 was warmer compared to the long term average for the same period. This may have contributed to the negative Chla anomalies off the western coast. Figure 22: Sea Surface Temperature anomaly from March to August 2016 Figure 23: Chlorophyll Concentration anomaly from from March to August 2016 EASTERN ATLANTIC: Moderate upwelling associated with increased primary production in the Gulf of Guinea and Equatorial regions. Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem and Gulf of Guinea (figure1, areas 6 and 10) In the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (LME), upwelling on the continental shelves of Mauritania to the southern coast of Guinea Bissau was not intense, which may have resulted in a low biological production in the Canary Current LME (figures 24 and 25). Negative sea surface temperature anomalies observed off the upwelling region were weak and short-lived (figure 24). The intense warming that occurred in February and March may have contributed to the weak upwelling resulting in low primary production. This is expected to potentially result in low fish abundance which will affect fishing activities in the region. In the coming few months, sea surface temperature is expected to decrease slightly and this may not improve biological production. Figure 24: Time series analysis for Gulf of Guinea The Gulf of Guinea was relatively productive from March to August. Warmer than average SST between March and April (figure 24) contributed to low biological production (low Chl-a concentrations and negative Chl-a anomalies). However, in the period between June and August there was an increase in Chl-a concentrations which suggests an increased food availability for fish. This may have increased activity for the thriving fisheries industry especially in Ghana and Cote D Ivoire. Figure 25: Time series analysis for Canary region Equatorial Atlantic and Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (figure1, areas 7 and 8) In the equatorial Atlantic and Benguela Current LME, the negative Chla concentration anomalies suggest decreased biological production when compared to the long-term average. However, biological production between June and August increased slightly which may have been as a result of the seasonal upwelling (figure 26). It is expected that the industrial fishing fleets which target high value commercial species such as tuna may have had good catches during the period. In the Benguela Current LME, SST was generally warmer from March to August which may have contributed to low Chl-a concentration (Figure 27). Beginning from June, Chl-a concentration began to increase which can be attributed to upwelling off the coast of Namibia and Angola. This is expected improve fish abundance in the coastal regions where artisanal fishing is intense. In the coming few months, it is anticipated that SST will steadily decrease, which may improve phytoplankton growth. 8 MESA Continental Environmental Bulletin
FISHING RESOURCES EASTERN ATLANTIC: continued Figure 26: Time series analysis for Equatorial Atlantic region Figure 27: Time series analysis for Benguela region SOUTH WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN: Sea surface temperature higher than usual. The Mozambique Channel (figure 1, area 12) Chl-a concentration was generally above the long-term average within the Mozambique Channel. However, surface temperature was warm except between May to July which was slightly low (figure 28). Along the Tanzania and Kenya coasts, Chl-a concentration was relatively high though surface temperatures were above average for the most part of the period until July when SST was cool (figure 29). These observations give an indication of increased phytoplankton growth. This suggests fish abundance could have increased which positively support the artisanal fisheries which operate mainly in coastal waters. Figure 28: Time series analysis for Mozambique Channel Figure 29: Time series analysis for Kenya Tanzania coastal zone Mauritius (figure 1, area 9) and Seychelles EEZ (figure 1, area 11) The negative SST anomalies observed West of Seychelles during March and April was a clear indication of intense stratification which contributed to low Chl-a concentration during the same period (figure 30). However, a dip in SST from April may have resulted in favourable conditions to promote biological production. Positive anomalies in Chl-a for the period suggest upwelling in the region was intense and have resulted in increased fish abundance. It is expected that the industrial fishing fleets which target high value commercial species such as tuna, might have good catch during this period. In the Indian Ocean, surface water was cooler except for the Mauritian zone where high surface temperatures were recorded (figure 31). In the Mauritian region, positive anomalies in Chl-a for the period suggest increased biological production to support fish growth and abundance. However, in the coming few months it is anticipated that SST will gradually increase, which will directly reduce phytoplankton growth. This is expected to reduce fishing activities in the region. Figure 30: Time series analysis for Mauritius region Figure 31: Time series analysis for Seychelles region September 2016 9
WATER RESOURCES This section deals with parts of the hydrological balance from Earth Observation data (source: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF). The objective is to produce the simplified depth of runoff per river basin (Congo, Lake Chad, Niger and Zambezi) which is only based on the analysis of precipitation and cumulative evapotranspiration (WATER BALANCE = RAIN-ETP) for 2 periods: January to April and May to August. The water sub basin boundaries are from the HYDROSHEDS data. OVERVIEW : Good water supply in the Niger, Lake Chad and Congo basins. January to April 2016 There is a seasonal decrease in the hydrological balance across the Niger, Lake Chad and northern Congo basins with a negative water balance (figure 32). The opposite is true for the Zambezi basin and the southern part of the Congo basin where rainfall above the seasonal average has been recorded, with a positive hydrological balance of 100 to 300 mm. May to August 2016 During this period the north of the Niger and Lake Chad basins, the southern Congo basin and the Zambezi basin have negative water balances (figure 33). Only the north of the Congo basin, and the south of the Niger and Lake Chad basins have benefited from the northerly movement of the precipitation front, and show a positive water balance. Lake Chad Basin Lake Chad Basin Congo Basin Congo Basin Niger Basin Zambezi Basin Niger Basin Zambezi Basin Figure 32: Niger, Congo, Lake Chad and Zambezi basins Cumulative depth of runoff from January to April 2016 Figure 33: Niger, Congo, Lake Chad and Zambezi basins Cumulative depth of runoff from May to August 2016 CONGO BASIN: Drier than normal dry season in the south during May to August. Two zones can be described in the basin. The northern zone is subject to the rainy season with cumulative precipitation above 800 mm. The water balance is positive between 10 and 300 mm, allowing normal navigation on the Oubangui and Sangha rivers (figure 34). The seasonal forecast for September to December predicts lower than average precipitation which could have an impact on navigability. Due to the dry season, cumulative precipitation in the order of 200 mm has been recorded in the southern zone of the basin, leading to a seasonal reduction in the water balance (-50 to -400 mm) leading to a reduction in navigability on the Kasai river (figure 35). The seasonal forecast for September to December predicts higher than average precipitation which could lead to good navigability. Figure 34: ECMWF Rainfall and ETP over the Congo Basin Sub basin n 648 Figure 35: ECMWF Rainfall and ETP over the Congo Basin Sub basin n 616 10 MESA Continental Environmental Bulletin
WATER RESOURCES LAKE CHAD BASIN: Wetter than normal rainy season in the south of the basin, during May to August. Most of the basin has received exceptionally high precipitation, especially in July and August 2016: 75% above the average (figure 36). In the south of the basin cumulative precipitation of 100 to 600 mm above seasonal averages have been recorded, with values reaching 800 mm in the Central African Republic. As a consequence, the water balance is positive leading to increasing water levels in Lake Chad, which is being fed in particular from the region to the south of the lake. Figure 36: ECMWF Rainfall and ETP over the lake Chad Basin Sub basin n 42 ZAMBEZI BASIN: Normal dry season during May to August across the basin. There was a seasonal decrease in precipitation in the Zambezi basin with values less than 10 mm, except in the west of the basin where precipitation has been recorded up to 50 mm. The water balance is negative during this season due to the lack of precipitation, which is normal (figure 37). Figure 371: ECMWF Rainfall and ETP over the Zambezi Basin Sub basin n 436 NIGER BASIN: Significant precipitation during May to August. There are two major zones in the basin, northern and southern. The northern zone recorded normally low rainfall varying between 10 and 100 mm. In the southern zone the rainy season started late, followed by a recovery in precipitation from June with above average values as high as 600 mm. Values as high as 900 mm were observed in the higher part of the basin around Fouta-Djalon. The water balance is therefore above average, in particular for the first small rise of the water level ( la petite crue ) of the Niger river in August. The seasonal forecast predicts a probability of precipitation above average, suggesting that the second rise in water level on the Niger in December will be good (figure 38). Figure 38: ECMWF Rainfall and ETP over the Niger Basin Sub basin n 829 EXPLANATION OF THE GRAPH LEGENDS IN THE BULLETIN 10d Filtered NDVI linear x2 10 day NDVI filtered by smoothing (2 linear passes) Anomaly Difference from a long term mean Chirps dekad rainfall estimate CHIRPS is a source of rainfall estimation, see http://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/data/chirps/ dekad 10 day period ETP TS / LT MEAN EvapoTranspiration Time Series / Long Term Mean LTA Long Term Average mean value over the reference period; for NDVI 1999-2014, for RFE 2000-2014 LTA-MEAN / LT AVG Long Term Average Mean LTA-MIN / LTA-MAX Long Term Average Minimum / Long Term Average - Maximum NDVI The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an indicator of greenness. RAIN TS / LT MEAN Rainfall Time Series, using CHIRPS / Long Term Mean, using CHIRPS RFE RainFall Estimate, using CHIRPS SST Sea Surface Temperature The administrative units used to produce the graphs for Protected Areas and Agriculture are Level 1 or Level 2 from the FAO GAUL database September 2016 11
Africa-EU Partnership THE MESA PROGRAMME MESA uses space-based and in-situ data to enable an improved management of the environment and food security at continental, regional and national levels in Africa. MESA consolidates and widens the operational environmental services developed in the AMESD (African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development) programme, and is a contribution to the GMES-Africa initiative of the EU-Africa Joint Strategy. The purpose of the MESA programme is to increase the capacity in information management, decision making and planning of African continental, regional and national institutions mandated for environment, climate and food security. This will be achieved by enhancing access to reliable, timely and accurate land, marine and climate data and information for Africa. MESA is exploiting Earth Observation (EO) data and technologies to promote socio-economic progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. USING EARTH OBSERVATION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS This bulletin is based on the analysis of environmental indicators derived from satellite imagery, allowing cost effective monitoring of the environmental situation at the continental level. These indicators include NDVI and other vegetation indicators (http://land.copernicus.eu/global); RFE Rainfall products (http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews); active fire products (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/earth-observation-data/near-real-time/firms) and chlorophyll-a and SST products (http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov). These Earth Observation indicators are complemented by seasonal climate forecasts and other sources of information. The bulletin is produced twice a year. The EUMETCast system provided by EUMETSAT routinely distributes Earth Observation data by satellite broadcasting, thus addressing the issue of data reception in areas with poor internet connectivity. The retrieving of Earth Observation data from the EUMETCast receiving station, and the computation of the environmental indicators is automatically performed by the Environmental Station, or estation, software developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The estation is comprehensive remote sensing software distributed to all sub-saharan African countries on the AMESD and MESA Stations, in the framework of the AMESD and MESA programmes. Acknowledgments: This bulletin is the result of cooperation between MESA Regional and Continental Implementation Centres (ACMAD, BDMS/SADC-CSC, CICOS, AGRHYMET, ICPAC, MOI, the University of Ghana), MESA Headquarters at the African Union Commission and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The MESA programme is funded by the 10th European Development Fund of the European Commission. For more information on this bulletin please contact info@hd-mesa.org or visit http://mesa.au.int/bulletin. Disclaimer: This bulletin has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this bulletin are the sole responsibility of MESA and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the African Union. AU-MESA Headquarters, African Union Commission, P.O.Box 3243, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Tel: (251) 11 5517700 ext 4473. Email: info@hd-mesa.org Website: http://mesa.au.int