NMME Progress and Plans Jin Huang NCEP Climate Test Bed (CTB) February 12, 2014 Acknowledgement CTB/SAB, NOAA/CPO, NCEP, NMME Team, and other US contributing agencies (NSF,DOE, and NASA) and Canada.
North American What is NMME? NMME Phase-I: An experimental system initiated as a Climate Test Bed (CTB) research project supported by NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) in FY11. NMME Phase-II: An improved experimental system as a FY12-FY13 MAPP/CTB research project with additional support from NSF, DOE and NASA. NMME Expansion Project in High Impact Weather Prediction Pilot (HIWPP) Project from Sandy Supplemental Fund All participating models strictly follow the same protocol and re-run hindcasts after each model upgrade
Model Hindcast Period Phrase-I NMME Forecast Providers No. of Member NCEP-CFSv2 1982-2010 24(20) GFDL-CM2.1 1982-2010 10 CMC1- CanCM3 CMC2- CanCM4 Current NMME Forecast Providers 1981-2010 10 1981-2010 10 Arrangement of Members 4 members (0,6,12,18Z) every 5th day All 1st of the month 0Z All 1st of the month 0Z All 1st of the month 0Z Lead (months) Model Resolution: Atmosphere 0-9 T126L64 0-11 2x2.5deg L24 0-11 0-11 CanAM3 T63L31 CanAM4 T63L35 Model Resolution: Ocean MOM4 L40 0.25 deg Eq Reference Saha et al. (2010) MOM4 L50 Delworth et 0.30 deg Eq al. (2006) CanOM4 L40 Merryfield 0.94 deg Eq et al. (2012) CanOM4 L40 Merryfield 0.94 deg Eq et al. (2012) NCAR- CCSM3.0 1982-2010 6 All 1st of the month 0-11 T85L26 POP L40 0.3 deg Eq Kirtman and Min (2009) NASA- GEOS5 1981-2010 11 4 members every 5th days; 7 members on the last day of the previous month 0-9 1x1.25deg L72 MOM4 L40 1/4 deg at Eq Rienecker et al. (2008) Upcoming new/upgraded models: NCAR-CCSM4: May 2014 GFDL-FLOR: March 2014 NCAR-CESM1: April 2014 3
www.nws.noaa.gov Home Site Map News Organization Search Go HOME > NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies Welcome to the National Multi-Model Ensemble home! Data and Current Forecasts NMME real time seasonal forecast since August 2011 following CPC operational schedule Monthly telecons to discuss research and operational topics 3-month mean spatial anomalies 1-month mean spatial anomalies Niño3.4 Plumes International MME Experimental: Probability forecasts NMME Realtime Forecasts Archive NMME Phase-I Hindcast Data About the NMME Description of the NMME Phase-I Forecast Models CTB Activities & Documents Join the NMME mailing list
NMME Data Available to Users 1. Realtime forecasts from CPC website http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/nmme/ 2. Phase I Reforecast data in IRI website available now Monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast 8 variables (P, T, SST, Z200, Tmax, Tmin Soil Moisture, Runoff ) http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/sources/.models/.nmme/ 3. Phase II Reforecast data in NCAR Complete monthly Mean of 30 year reforecast Comprehensive daily reforecast data of selected (189 ) variables https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search.html?project=nmme
Comparison of CFSv2 skill vs NMME July 1 start DJF SST forecast Ranked Probability Skill Score based on 30-year NMME hindcast data NMME (B. Kirtman et al.) CFSv2
NMME Increases Forecast Reliability T2m October Starts JFM Verification
Skills of NINO3.4 hindcasts come more from more models than more members (T. Delsole) Testing the hypothesis that single-model skill equals multimodel skill of NINO3.4 hindcasts
CCSM3 Benefits NMME Complementary Correlations All Others (24 Member Ensemble) vs. CCSM3 NMME Benefits CCSM3 Ensemble CFSv1(1)+IRIa(1)+IRId(1)+CM2.1(1)+GEOS5(1)+CFSv1(1) vs. CCSM3(6) 9
Real-time forecast since Aug. 2011 RT verification: CONUS NMME Forecast Skill Verification Year 1 Year 2 T2m Prate
RT verification: CONUS NMME Real-time Forecast Verification NMME precipitation forecast for Jan. 2014 is good Tforecast is not so good (Emily Becker)
Jan 2014 SPI3 NMME Drought Forecast Products Jan2014 SPI6 SPI Forecasts based on NMME 201401 Feb 2014 Feb 2014 12
Status and Impacts of Model Upgrades NCAR/CCSM4 (scheduled for CPC operation in May 2014) CCSM4 CCSM3 Hindcast Evolution of NINO3.4 in CCSM3 and CCSM4 based on 30 year (1981 2010) hindcasts GFDL FLOR for CPC operation in May,2014)
Testing NMME Sub-seasonal Forecast Protocol Experimental Protocol 45-day Reforecasts 1999-2012, November-only Initializations (every 5 days) on 2nd, 7th, 12th, 17th, 22th, 27 th At least 3 ensemble members (perturbations decided by individual modeling groups) Limited set of variables: SST, U200, U850, OLR, Precip, MSLP, Z200 Participating Models a)ncep-cfsv2 b)nasa-gmao c)rsmas/ncar-ccsm4 d)ncep-emc GEFS e)canada? Goal: To demonstrate the potential benefit of a subseasonal NMME in a retrospective context To provide a framework for a future real-time subseasonal NMME (After Kathy Pegion)
NMME Near Term Plans Sustain and improve the experimental NMME seasonal forecast system Documents on Operationalize NMME and Vision and 5-Year Plan for NMME are developed New/upgraded models; optimizing the system; application products Community efforts to analyze the NMME Phase-II data A CMIP type data for ISI time scales (available in July 2014) Develop NMME sub-seasonal forecast capability Linkage/contribution to S2S project A community-wide NMME workshop (possibly 2015) for planning NMME Phase-III
NMME Benefits and integrates Research and Operations Improved operational prediction capabilities by leveraging model development and expertise from the research community Research Topics Research Topics AO NCEP AO Co-PI NCEP LOI Co-PI Proposal LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Reanalysis / Earth Reforecasts System Modeling Earth System Tropical Modeling oscillations Tropical Model oscillations physics Model Etc. physics Etc. Research Research Climate Forecast Climate Products Forecast MME Products MME CFS Improvements CFS Improvements R2O R2O O2R O2R Operations Operations Improved products Improved and services products and services Research R2O O2R Operations Openly distributed hindcast and real time data following strict protocol Operational setting for o model diagnosis and evaluations o climate predictability and prediction research