Public Disclosure Authorized AFRICA Zambia Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice Recipient Executed Activities Investment Project Financing FY 2013 Seq No: 9 ARCHIVED on 27-Dec-2017 ISR30903 Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance, Government of Republic of Zambia, Ministry of National Development Planning Public Disclosure Authorized Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:09-May-2013 Planned Mid Term Review Date:31-Dec-2015 Original Closing Date:31-Dec-2019 Project Development Objectives Effectiveness Date:12-Sep-2013 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:05-Oct-2015 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2019 Public Disclosure Authorized Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the project is to strengthen Zambia's institutional framework for climate resilience and improve the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities in the Barotse sub-basin. The project involves three components: 1. Strategic NationalProgram Support, aiming to strengthen the national institutional and financial framework for climate resilience, by (a) providing institutional support to the national climate change program; and (b) strengthening climate information. 2. Support to ParticipatoryAdaptation, through strengthening of the adaptive capacity of vulnerable rural communities in the Barotse sub-basin. 3. Pilot Participatory Adaptation, through the funding of actual participatory adaptation investments in the Barotse sub-basin, including (a) community adaptation sub-grants; (b) establishment and operation of an adaptation contingency fund; and (c) rehabilitation and strengthened management of traditional canals. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Public Disclosure Authorized Name Strategic National Programme Support:(Cost $9.60 M) Support to Participatory Adaptation:(Cost $5.60 M) Pilot Participatory Adaptation:(Cost $20.80 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 12/27/2017 Page 1 of 20
Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions Zambia continues to make significant progress in ensuring institutionalization of the climate change program. On the policy and planning side, the process for climate risk mainstreaming of the Integrated Development Plans for the fourteen project participating districts is completed and draft mainstreamed documents submitted for provincial approval by districts. Form the programmatic investment side, the country has formally requested for the PPCR model to be scaled up nationally. The first phase will be across three additional provinces. These are continued attestation to the government s commitment to ensuring that climate risk considerations are mainstreamed across sectors at all levels and are given priority. The mission noted that the project continued to fare well in terms of overall implementation and progress towards achievement of its PDO. This is evident from the following i.e. the number of direct beneficiaries amongst vulnerable communities continues to be considerably higher than expected (158,081, vis-à-vis 40,000 at appraisal). As at mission covered by tis ISR, 628 sub-project proposals for community projects had been approved by the Provincial Planning Sub-Committee (PPSC) for funding. All the previously delayed climate information activities are in progress. And the major canal rehabilitation works are scheduled for completion by next mission. To this end, the government is strongly supporting the scaling process to implement the current successful model for implementing climate adaptation measures. They are regularly on top of the new project preparation. This support is already paving a path toward a gradual move to national programmatic coverage for a Resilience Landscape program using a participatory adaptation approach. Amongst all project activities, there is continued solid progress in strengthened government capacity and coordination mechanisms for climate resilience, in the process of facilitation and community organization, and in the community-level, ward grants (especially on soft, hard adaptation subprojects and rehabilitation of priority canals). There are indications that point to improved implementation based on the 2017 Work Plan in the various project components The next implementation support mission is expected to take place in May 2018. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall -- Moderate Moderate Results 12/27/2017 Page 2 of 20
Project Development Objective Indicators Changes in the budget allocations to climate smart programs in national budgets (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 3,162,000.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2015 28-Jun-2019 The next value reporting for this indicator is next mission after 2017 fiscal budget analysis. However it is important to note that base don the project design indicator reporting, the next reporting is at the end of the project period Increase in national budget allocations to climate resilient programmes for climate vulnerable sectors: amount approved (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 2,529,600.00 0.00 0.00 3,162,000.00 Date 13-Sep-2013 15-Dec-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Increase in national budget allocations to climate resilient programmes for climate vulnerable sectors: amount disbursed (ZMW/yr) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 1,900,400.00 0.00 0.00 2,375,500.00 Date 13-Sep-2013 15-Dec-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Vulnerable districts, wards and communities use improved tools, information and instruments to respond to climate change and variability (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 36.00 36.00 70.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 30-Sep-2014 30-Sep-2014 29-Mar-2019 12/27/2017 Page 3 of 20
The next value reporting for this indicator is at the end of the project Percentage of targeted councils assessed as having developed incremental decision-making capacity and applied climate information to adapt to longer-term climate change and variability (%) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 70.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 -- 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Percentage of targeted wards assessed as having developed incremental decision-making capacity and applied climate information to adapt to longer-term climate change and variability (%) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 70.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 -- 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Percentage of targeted community groups assessed as having developed incremental decision-making capacity and applied climate information to adapt to longer-term climate change and variability (%) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 70.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 -- 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Canals with optimal average flows (Text, Custom) Value No engineering design and specification of canals in place before rehabilitation -- -- Designed slope and cross sections maintained to the engineering 12/27/2017 Page 4 of 20
standard. And functional use of canal by WUA and community Date 07-Mar-2014 -- -- 31-Dec-2019 The next value reporting for this indicator is at the end of project i.e year six Average flow velocity of targeted canal (m/s) (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value Engineering design and specification of canals in place before rehabilitation Rehabilitation work on four(4) major traditional priority canal have commenced. Two(2) rehabilitation work on Lubitamei and Muyowamo, have been completed. While work on Musiamo and Namitome are in progress with 25% completed No reporting expected on the indicator in year four Designed slope and cross sections maintained to the engineering standard. And functional use of canal by WUA and community Date 30-Oct-2014 15-Dec-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Average flow velocity of targeted canal (m/s) (Number, Custom Supplement) Value 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.48 Number of beneficiaries supported directly by the project to adapt to the effects of climate change (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 -- -- 0.00 12/27/2017 Page 5 of 20
Date 30-Oct-2013 -- -- 31-Oct-2019 Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative): total households (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 22,346.00 30,716.00 22,800.00 Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative): women-headed household (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 7,795.00 13,615.00 11,000.00 Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative): other vulnerable households (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 24,459.00 36,945.00 14,800.00 Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative): total number of people (Number, Custom Breakdown) 12/27/2017 Page 6 of 20
Value 0.00 111,110.00 152,902.00 130,000.00 Overall Intermediate Results Indicators Strengthened Government capacity to mainstream climate resilience (Text, Custom) Value Interim National Climate Change Secretariat (INCCS) established -- -- Council fully operational effectively coordinating climate change funding, programs and projects Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2018 The next value reporting for this indicator is at the end of project i.e year six National Climate Change and Development Council (or equivalent) established and fully operational, effectively coordinating climate change funding, programs and projects (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value Interim National Climate Change Secretariat (INCCS) established Based on the National Climate Change Policy was approved on April 26, 2016 by the Cabinet, the policy proposed a new Institutional arrangement for multi sectoral coordination of climate change program in the country. No reporting required for this period Council fully operational effectively coordinating climate change funding, programs and projects 12/27/2017 Page 7 of 20
The new proposal seeks to abolish the roles and responsibility of the current climate change secretariat and a set up of a new structure.progress with the establishment of a Climate change council based on this new development is likely to be slowed down and or even uncertain within the life time of the project. Strengthened institutional and financial mechanisms to ensure climate resilience (Yes/No, Custom) Value N -- N Y Date 30-Oct-2013 -- 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 The next value reporting for this indicator is at the end of project i.e year six Canal operation and maintenance (O&M) agreement adopted by provincial authority (Yes/No, Custom Breakdown) Value N -- Y Y Date 30-Oct-2013 -- 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 12/27/2017 Page 8 of 20
Climate resilient programs and policies in key vulnerable sectors screened for their impact (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 There is no reporting expected for this year. The next reporting is at the end of project. Number of sectoral screening guidelines for climate resilience programs and policies developed for key sectors (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 Climate responsive financial instruments developed and tested (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 The developed instrument is yet to be tested, the ministry of finance is engaged in the process of testing. For the second instrument required to be developed, the project end target date is the next reporting. 12/27/2017 Page 9 of 20
Number of climate risk financing instruments developed (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 Number of climate risk financing instruments tested (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Number of relevant climate information products/services made available for decision-making at various levels (Text, Custom) Value No information available -- -- Information Available Date 30-Oct-2013 -- -- 31-Oct-2019 1. Social Marketing- Target toward reporting about preliminary results to achieved. This is because implementation is behind schedule. Currently.development of material/creative works to be used for campaign ongoing. 2. Two-way early warning system (EWS) established and operational in targeted districts- The 50 % coverage in targeted districts is not archived because the initial pilot was delayed. The system is currently being refined for full roll out across districts. 3.Two-way early warning system (EWS) established and operational in targeted districts- the designed pilot is being tested and the next reporting for this indicator is at the end of project 12/27/2017 Page 10 of 20
Professional social marketing awarness campaign designed and implemented (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value No Baseline carried out and completed. Tailor made information tool being designed for different levels of stakeholders to be targeted. Not achieved Yes Date 30-Oct-2013 15-Dec-2016 15-Dec-2016 31-Oct-2019 Two-way early warning system (EWS) established and operational in targeted districts (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value SMS system piloted for hydro info, with limited coverage Pilot work still ongoing in Mbeta Island of Sioma district. Community based training already carried out. Creation of climate information centers ongoing. The first indicator reporting based on the project design happens next fiscal year. Target not achieved 70 % coverage in targeted districts Date 30-Jun-2014 15-Dec-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Two-way early warning system (EWS) established and operational in targeted districts (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value No No No Yes 12/27/2017 Page 11 of 20
Climate resilience mainstreaming in local area planning (Number, Custom) Value 24.00 -- -- 24.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 -- -- 31-Dec-2019 Despite delay, mainstreaming of ward and district IDPs have commenced in all the project targeted ward and districts. the figure reported at this mission are those completed the remaining wards and districts all have a draft in place to be completed. Based on the reporting as at this mission, the end project target will be reached by next mission. The Climate risk assessment for the Barotse sub-basin in progress and 70% almost completed. By next mission this would have been completed, and the process for applying to provincial-level planning will be started immediately Climate resilience considerations mainstreamed in local area plans of pilot districts and wards : district-level (IDPs) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 7.00 6.00 Climate resilience considerations mainstreamed in local area plans of pilot districts and wards: ward-level (ADPs)18 (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 6.00 18.00 12/27/2017 Page 12 of 20
Climate risk assessment completed for Barotse sub-basin, and incorporated into provincial-level planning (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 1.00 Strengthened institutional and financial mechanisms to ensure climate resilience (Text, Custom) Value No -- -- Yes Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 The Canal O&M Manual has been full adopted by the provincial administration and the BRE. However this remains to be adopted national for canal O&M across the nation. The Adaptation contingency fund is full established under the project, a criteria for piloting has been developed and the fund is currently being piloted with initial 8 projects already approved and funded. The evaluation of fund implementation and final Operational modalities developed for contingency fund has been delayed because piloting is just happening Provincial level agreement for optimal canal operation and maintenance (O&M) adopted and with BRE support (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value No Yes Yes Yes 12/27/2017 Page 13 of 20
Local adaptation contingency fund established (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value No No Yes Yes Number of sub-grants approved and completed (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 34.00 34.00 1,324.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 Value were below target value four because of delay experienced. Grants at district and ward level required a mainstreamed IDP before project approval. However post the mission period, large number of projects have been identified and being approved. This will be reflected in the next mission and ISR Number of sub-grants approved: district-level (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 0.00 2.00 24.00 Number of sub-grants approved: ward-level (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 4.00 5.00 72.00 12/27/2017 Page 14 of 20
Number of sub-grants approved: community-level (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 412.00 626.00 1,150.00 Number of sub-grants approved : individual champion (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 2.00 20.00 78.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 08-Dec-2017 31-Oct-2019 Number of sub-grants approved: individual champion female (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 3.00 7.00 23.00 Areas with access to reliable canal water (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 -- -- 400.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 -- -- 31-Oct-2019 12/27/2017 Page 15 of 20
Incremental area under climate resilient crops in the vicinity of seven (7) targeted priority canals and secondary/ ancilliary canals (ha) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 355.20 355.20 400.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 15-Dec-2016 15-Dec-2016 31-Oct-2019 Targeted priority and secindary/ancilliary canals rehabilitated and maintained (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 471.10 642.00 220.00 Incremental labor generated through cash-for-works (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 -- -- 3,250.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 25-May-2015 25-May-2015 31-Oct-2019 Person-days of labor generated (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 46,620.00 48,000.00 3,250.00 12/27/2017 Page 16 of 20
Person-days of labor generated : women (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 22,140.00 23,400.00 1,625.00 Households considered very vulnerable in target districts (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 Household considered with diversification into alternative sources of livelihood income away from climate-sensitive activites/income sources (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 Average number of alternative sources of livelihood income per sampled beneficiary household: Female-headed HHs (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 1.36 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 31-Oct-2019 12/27/2017 Page 17 of 20
Average number of alternative sources of livelihood income per sampled beneficiary household: Male-headed HHs (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 1.57 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 30-Oct-2019 Physical assets in targetted dsitricts clasified as highly vulnerabile in targetted disctricts (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 30-Oct-2019 Proportion of key floodplain canals operating at near optimum flow (Text, Custom) Value No canal has any viable technical maintenance design nor has been rehabilitated or maintained in the past 20years -- -- O&M plan and design in place and adhered to. Date 30-Oct-2013 -- -- 31-Oct-2019 Proportion of key floodplain canals operating at near optimum flow (inside and outside of project area) (Text, Custom Breakdown) Value No canal has any viable technical maintenance design nor has been rehabilitated or maintained in the past 20years Seven Priority targeted canals now have a maintenance technical design in place. In addition 7 community level canal now have district level maintaining technical design and have been rehabilitated Seven Priority targeted canals now have a maintenance technical design in place. In addition 7 community level canal now have district level maintaining technical design and have been rehabilitated O&M plan and design in place and adhered to. Date 30-Oct-2013 18-Jun-2016 18-Jun-2016 30-Oct-2019 12/27/2017 Page 18 of 20
Overall Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P127254 TF-14573 Effective USD 5.00 5.00 0.00 4.09 0.91 82% P127254 TF-14588 Effective USD 31.00 31.00 0.00 13.62 17.38 44% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P127254 TF-14573 Effective 09-May-2013 14-Jun-2013 12-Sep-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 P127254 TF-14588 Effective 14-Jun-2013 14-Jun-2013 12-Sep-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Cumulative Disbursements 12/27/2017 Page 19 of 20
Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 01-Sep-2017 Related Project(s) P165442-Additional Financing for Zambia Strengthening Climate Resilience (PPCR Phase II) 12/27/2017 Page 20 of 20