Weather guidance overnight continued to tick demand expectations higher even after some very impressive afternoon guidance yesterday. We still see weather as extremely supportive for natural gas prices, with models homing in on the cold shot around the 15 th and 16 th that should deliver the final major heating demand spike of the year across the country. In the long-range guidance indicated cold may linger just slightly longer, though we are less impressed by the kind of demand cold after the 17 th or 18 th will be able to deliver, as it seasonally falls off quite significantly. Still, there is not much evidence of warmth in the long-range that would pull heating demand back below average, with an expectation that into the final week of April we see heating demand slightly above average each day besides a temporarily blip lower in the next few days with warmth across the East. Overnight Changes BESPOKEWeather Services Tuesday Morning Update: SLIGHTLY BEARISH May natural gas prices are bouncing following their recovery yesterday, with the strip looking a bit more supportive as well. This comes with increased nuclear outages as we approach peak maintenance season and weather forecasts that are about as bullish as possible for the time of year. Yet cash prices were quite weak yesterday, a trend that is possible again today as we price in extremely lackluster demand the next few days. With some short-term bullish catalysts and a more supportive strip (as well as expectations of a more supportive draw next week) prices have tested our $2 resistance level. Any move up towards $5 short-term continues to remain a great shorting opportunity with limited upside, keeping our sentiment slightly bearish with a bearish Thursday EIA print. That said, there are a couple bullish short-term catalysts that indicate a test of $5 is possible before an expected re-test of $5 through the week. Forecast Confidence: 5/1 May Nat Gas Daily Change: +.8% Most Recent Cash Mid-Point: $1 May 218 Contract Natural Gas GEFS/GFS CMC Ensembles ECMWF Ensembles Teleconnections Climate Models Week 3 Changes Expected 12z GWDDs 4/1 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/2 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 Total BWS Forecast 19 16.5 13 12 13.5 19 2 18.5 16.5 16 15 14.5 14 14 13 234.5 Old Forecast 19 17 13.5 12 13.5 19 2 18.5 16.5 15.5 15 14 13.5 13 1 23 217 8 9 9 11 11 8 7 8 9 1 9 12 13 11 11 146. 5-yr Avg 13 12.4 12.4 12.4 1 1 11.8 1.4 1 1.2 1.4 11.2 11.6 1 1 176.6 1981-21 Avg 15.8 15. 14.6 14.4 13.7 1 1 1 1 12.2 11.6 11.8 12.4 12.1 11.4 196.1 April 1, 218 1 1 1 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted 217-1-5 217-11-3 217-12-5 218-1-5 218-2-6 218-3-8 /18 Preliminary EIA Forecasts 6-Apr 13-Apr 2-Apr 27-Apr Storage Change (bcf) -16-15 21 58 5-yr Storage Change (bcf) 9 38 6 69 Forecast/Observed TDDs 146 131.5 118.5 93.5 5-yr Avg TDDs 114 94 78 84 Climo 113 18 89 81
bcf BESPOKEWeather Services Weather-Driven Demand Forecasts 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 Morning GWDD Forecasts BWS Forecast Old Forecast 217 5-yr Avg 1981-21 Avg 3 25 2 GWDDs 1981-217 218 Forecast 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 25 Forecast Next 4 EIA Prints 6-Apr 13-Apr 2-Apr 27-Apr Storage Change (bcf) 5-yr Storage Change (bcf) 15-Day GWDD Forecasts 6 1.5 4/1 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/2 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 Overnight GWDD Change 15 2 15 1.5 1 1981-217 Avg 1 5 -.5-1 4/1 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/2 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 April 1, 218 5 4/1 4/12 4/14 4/16 4/18 4/2 4/22 4/24 2 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted BWS Forecast Old Forecast 217 5-yr Avg 1981-21 Avg
Natural Gas Forward Strip.5 Natural Gas Contract Movement Over Time 4 3.8 Natural Gas Future Strip 3.6 3.4 3 -.5 -.1 -.15 2.4 218 219 22 221 222 223 Most Recent Settle Month Ago 3 Months Ago 6 Months Ago 1 Year Ago 2 Years Ago Natural Gas Calendar Prices 3 -.2 -.25 219 22 221 222 223 1/5/217 /217 /217 /218 /218 /218 Daily Move Weekly Move Monthly Move 6 Month Move Cal 18 Cal 19 Cal 2 Cal 21 Cal 22 Cal 23 April 1, 218 3 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted /218
Energy Commodity, Spread, And Range Rundown 3.9 3.7 3.5 Heating Oil vs. Natural Gas HO NG 4/7 6/7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 7 65 6 55 5 45 Natural Gas vs. WTI Crude WTI NG 4 4/11 6/11 8/11 1/11 12/11 2/11 3.9 3.7 3.5 5-Day Average Natural Gas Daily Range As Percent Of Price D-187 5-Year Average This Year D-145 D-13 D-61 D-19 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% D+22.45.4.35.3 Future H/J -.2 -.22 -.24 -.26 -.28 -.3 -.32 Future V/F.2 -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 Future J/V.25 -.34 -.36 -.1 -.12.2 4/6 6/6 8/6 1/6 1 4/6 April 1, 218 H9/J9 H/J H1/J1 -.38 4/6 6/6 8/6 1/6 1 4/6 V8/F9 V9/F V/F1 4 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted -.14 4/6 6/6 8/6 1/6 1 4/6 J9/V9 J/V J1/V1
Front Six Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts May 218 June 218 July 218 2.4 August 218 September 218 October 218 5 April 1, 218 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted
7-12 Month Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts November 218 December 218 3.4 January 219 February 219 March 219 April 219 6 April 1, 218 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted
13-18 Month Natural Gas Contract Daily Charts May 219 June 219 July 219 August 219 September 219 October 219 April 1, 218 7 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted
April 1, 218 8 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted BESPOKEWeather Services Morning Update Disclaimer and Key Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Key: z GFS/GEFS: Overnight American Weather Model Guidance 6z GFS/GEFS: Early Morning American Weather Model Guidance z ECMWFens: Overnight European Weather Model Guidance z CMCens: Overnight Canadian Weather Model Guidance Teleconnections: Atmospheric indices that measure expected orientation both of upper and lower levels of the atmosphere (ie. MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc.) Bearish Bullish Current Analysis Yesterday s Analysis Climate Models: Models that look out at least one month in the future, focusing longer than the standard 1 to 15-day computer weather models GWDDs: Gas Weighted Degree Days (calculated by combining Population Weighted Cooling Degree Days (PWCDDs) with Utility Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (UGWHDDs)) EIA Forecasts: Our forecast for the weekly change in natural gas stockpiles, going out four weeks Expected 12z: Our preliminary take on how we expected 12z afternoon model guidance to differ from morning output Note: All above information is part of this informational key, and is not updated daily. For more terms, definitions, and explanations, see our subscriber-only glossary here.