IDB s Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative. Challenges and lessons learnt

IDB s Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative Challenges and lessons learnt

1. Introduction 2. Quick example: Joao Pessoa 3. Challenges and Lessons learnt

Introduction Idom s expertise IDOM is working with the IDB in several cities in Latin America, providing technical assistance for three basic studies within the diagnosis phase. Metropolitan Area of Asunción (Paraguay), Cuenca (Ecuador), Paraná (Argentina), Valdivia (Chile), Tegucigalpa (Honduras) and Joao Pessoa, Palmas, Florianópolis and Vitória (Brazil)

Introduction The 3 Basic Studies The aim of the studies is to identify key measures that can be fed into the Action Plan in the field of GHG mitigation, vulnerability reduction and urban growth. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 1 2 a-ghg Diagnosis (including a GHG inventory) and business as usual projections for 2050 VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION a- Selection of key natural disasters within the area of study b- Roadmap to GHG reduction in a 2050 horizon: strategic framework and measures. b- Risk assessment, considering climate change (when applicable) 3 URBAN GROWTH STUDY a- Historical urban footprint b- Design of urban growth scenarios and urban footprint assessment in a 2050 horizon: business as usual, smart growth scenario, and intermediate scenario

Introduction Natural disasters The most common natural disaster is riverine flooding. Climate driven natural disasters Non climate driven natural disasters Riverine floods Landslides Coastal Hazards (erosion and coastal flooding) Droughts Seismic activity Asunción Cuenca Paraná Valdivia Joao Pessoa Cuenca Valdivia Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa Cuenca Cuenca Valdivia

1. Introduction 2. Quick example: Joao Pessoa 3. Challenges and Lessons learnt

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 TIRIRI PARAÍBA SANHAUÁ JAGUARIBE CUIÁ GRAMAME

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2 1930 9,54 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2 1930 9,54 km 2 1946 12,85 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2 1930 9,54 km 2 1946 12,85 km 2 1954 16,86 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2 1930 9,54 km 2 1946 12,85 km 2 1954 16,86 km 2 1972 25,74 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Joao Pessoa s historical growth Year Urban area 1634 0,38 km 2 1855 1,57 km 2 1889 1,78 km 2 1923 4,62 km 2 1930 9,54 km 2 1946 12,85 km 2 1954 16,86 km 2 1972 25,74 km 2 1978 34,39 km 2

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Limitations to future growth Current situation Historical protected sites

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Limitations to future growth + infrastructures: roads, airports, trainlines +Water bodies

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Limitations to future growth + swamps and marshes + natural risks prone areas

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Limitations to future growth + protected natural areas = areas not suitable for urban growth

Quick example: Joao Pessoa Scenarios Limitations for urban growth + Some recommendations from the mitigation study (green belt) Current Business as usual 2050 Smart growth 2050 POPULATION 1.034.615 + protected natural areas UURBAN AREA (mk2) 24.847 DENSITY 40 CIT/HA POPULATION 1.830.414 UURBAN AREA (mk2) 36.564 DENSITY 45 CIT/HA POPULATION 1.830.414 UURBAN AREA (mk2) 24.847 DENSITY 75 CIT/HA

1. Introduction 2. Quick example: Joao Pessoa 3. Challenges and Lessons learnt

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Introduction Learning by doing: IDOM has evolved in the way of developing the studios. We have faced challenges and we have learnt lessons that we would like to share: Internal interstudy coordination Definition of the area of study Stakeholder engagement Lack of information

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Internal interstudy coordination Internal interstudy coordination is key for a successful, integrated study. Studies 1 and 2 require some inputs from study 3. At the same time, the main outputs from studies 1 and 2, are an input to define the measures of the smart growth scenario of the study 3. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 1 2 VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Area of study Population (current and projections) Proposed measures Current urban features Past, current and projected land use Projected population density Area of study Population Urban features Risk maps Projected urban futures (specially in terms of buildings) Proposed measures 3 URBAN GROWTH STUDY

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Definition of the area of study Definition of the area of study must take place at the very early stages of the project. We recommend sharing the same area of study in the three studies to assure coherence. There is not a final solution, just choices that are better than others. The case of Asunción

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Definition of the area of study Definition of the area of study must take place at the very early stages of the project. The selection of the area of study must take into account how the city may grow by 2050, as well as some other key facts. The case of Asunción ESCI area La Gran Asunción 686 km2? 11 municipalities. All of them included in the ESCI. Insufficient for expected 2050 growth The basins are not considered as a whole

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Definition of the area of study Definition of the area of study must take place at the very early stages of the project. The selection of the area of study must take into account how the city may grow by 2050, as well as some other key facts. The case of Asunción ESCI area La Gran Asunción + the Ypacarí Basin? 1584 km2 (yellow line) 11 ESCI municipalities and about 7 more in the basin. Is the city growth going to be stopped by country boundaries? Still lacks some clear areas of future urban development

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Definition of the area of study Definition of the area of study must take place at the very early stages of the project. The selection of the area of study must take into account how the city may grow by 2050, as well as some other key facts. The case of Asunción ESCI area La Gran Asunción + the Ypacarí Basin+ transboundary areas (Argentina) + key areas for development? 2600 km2 (red line) 30 municipalities in Paraguay and about 3 in Argentina It is considered as the real relevant area for urban growth scenarios Difficulties to obtain data and coordinate stakeholders Administrative boundaries not respected

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Definition of the area of study Definition of the area of study must take place at the very early stages of the project. The selection of the area of study must take into account how the city may grow by 2050, as well as some other key facts. The case of Asunción ESCI area La Gran Asunción + the Ypacarí Basin + key areas for development+ administrative boundaries? 3146 km2 (orange line) SELECTED SCOPE 30 municipalities in Paraguay

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Stakeholder engagement Stakeholder engagement is crucial to deliver a realistic study. Stakeholder engagement is a complex process that is not always successful. Municipality Literature Review Field visits Stakeholder identification Stakeholder prioritization Multicriteria Matrix Municipality Consultants Contact with the stakeholders Stakeholder engagement Workshops Interviews Field visits

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Stakeholder engagement Stakeholder identification requires a systematic approach. The key sources of information are the municipality and the initial literature review.

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Stakeholder engagement The key tasks for stakeholder engagement are the workshops: 4 workshops per city delivered. final results presentation event, training on GHG inventories. 1 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION a-validation and improvement of the diagnosis. Data gaps identification. b- Strategic framework definition. Prioritization of GHG reduction measures Capacity building, GHG inventory results presentation and SWOT sectorial analysis Debate and multicriteria analysis VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 2 Stakeholder engagement in data collection Presentation of preliminary results, identification of data gaps, dialogue 3 Validation and imporvement of the the diagnosis URBAN GROWTH STUDY Presentation of preliminary diagnosis. SWOT analysis in terms of: Natural environmental and landscapes Urban management and urban planning Mobility and new expansion areas

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Stakeholder engagement Still some challenges to be adressed. Issues for discussion: How to assure that all the key stakeholders have been identified? How to maintain stakeholders engagement after the workshop? Some agents are key stakeholders in 2 or even in the 3 studies: are there to many workshops? What if a crucial stakeholder lives far?

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Lack of information In developing countries the lack of information is a key barrier. The three studies require a large set of information so as to achieve realistic results. 1 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 2 VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Fuel use data Urban solid waste and wastewater data Land use and land features data Animal husbandry and agricultural data Environmental and urban planning Others for a qualitative diagnosis Digital Terrain Model and satellital information Land use, litological and geomorphological data Past data related to natural disasters Emergency plans and existing studies on natural disasters Key features to define vulnerability Climate change projections... 3 URBAN GROWTH STUDY Urban plans Cadaster Digital Terrain Model and satellital information Population and population projections Information on infrastructures Information on soil and property value

Challenges and Lessons Learnt Lack of information Some questions to address before trying to obtain the information Does the information exist? How can I access the information? Is there a procedure? How long is it going to take to obtain the information? How many resoruces is it goint to take to obtain the information? What can we do if there is no information?

Danke schön! Thank you very much! Iñigo Aizpuru inigo.aizpuru@idom.com