Induced Seismicity: Can it Happen in Kentucky Too? Seth Carpenter Seismologist Geologic Hazards Section 2015 KGS Annual Seminar
Outline - What s the problem? - Earthquake magnitude - Types of induced seismic events - Cases of earthquakes induced by fluid-injection - What KGS is doing to address this issue
What s the problem? (http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/04/heartland-danger-zones-emerge-new-u-s-earthquake-hazard-map)
What s the problem? http://www.courier-journal.com/story/watchdog-earth/2015/04/25/usgs-more-convinced-oil-and-gas-drillingproduces-earthquakes-as-kentucky-makes-fracking-move/26355365/
Earthquake: Magnitude How does magnitude relate to experienced effects? (http://www.iris.edu/hq/files/publications/brochures_onepagers/doc/en_onepager3.pdf)
fracking Earthquake: Magnitude How does fault size relate to magnitude? M 7.8 ~9,300 km 2 M 7.3 ~660 km 2 M 5 ~10 km 2 M 4 ~1 km 2 M 2 ~0.04 km 2 (~0.015 mi 2 ) M 1 ~0.01 km 2 (~0.004 mi 2 ) M -1 ~0.001 km 2 (~0.0004 mi 2 ) M -2 ~1-9 m 2 (~100 ft 2 )
Types of induced-seismic events: The study of anthropogenic seismicity began when earthquakes were felt in Johannesburg in 1894. Cause: gold production that began in 1886. Earthquakes can be induced* by (anthropogenic) activities related to: - Mines - Quarries - Reservoir loading - Fluid injection (fracking/wastewater) - Fluid extraction - Enhanced geothermal production (McGarr et al., 2002) * - induced, or triggered
Types of induced-seismic events: Mine Blasts and Roof Falls Kentucky has had plenty of experience with induced seismicity. HZKY HZKY (Street et al., 2002) M 2.4 M 2.5 M 2.6
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Extraction Oil production from 1993 1995, Clinton Co., Kentucky > 3,500 micro-earthquakes (M -2.5 to 0.9) (Rutledge et al., 1998)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction To induce an earthquake with fluid injection (or extraction), we need the right ingredients: - Injected fluids: fracking and wastewater - Pre-existing faults, oriented for failure in the tectonic stress conditions - Pathway from injection location to faults - Enough time and volume for pressure to overcome fault strength There are 100,000s of wastewater injection wells operating; very few have been associated with seismicity (Hornback et al., 2015) unfavorable condition
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Central and eastern U.S. earthquake rate increased rapidly at a time corresponding with the shale-gas boom M 3.0 Quakes 1970 2007 (From Ellsworth, 2013, Science)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Central and eastern U.S. earthquake rate increased rapidly at a time corresponding with the shale-gas boom 2008 M 3.0 Quakes 1970 2007 2008 2014 (From Ellsworth, 2013, Science)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Felt-cases of probable and unambiguous injectioninduced-seismicity reported in the literature: Fracking Waste-water injection 2008 M 3.0 Quakes 1970 2007 2008 2014 (From Ellsworth, 2013, Science) 2001 Ashtabula, OH M 3.9 2010 Braxton Co., WV M 3.4 2014 S. KS / N. OK M 4.9 2013 Azle, TX M 3.4 1997 AL / KY M 4.9
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Felt-cases of probable and unambiguous injectioninduced-seismicity reported in the literature: Fracking Waste-water injection 2008 M 3.0 Quakes 1970 2007 2008 2014 (From Ellsworth, 2013, Science) 2001 Ashtabula, OH M 3.9 2010 Braxton Co., WV M 3.4 2014 S. KS / N. OK M 4.9 2013 Azle, TX M 3.4 1997 AL / KY M 4.9
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction 2010-2011 Arkansas (M 4.7) = wastewater injection well = induced earthquakes Cross Section View (Horton, 2012)
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky: Can Induced Seismicity Happen in Kentucky? Well, yes* * - Mining-related - Microseismicity (e.g. Clinton Co. example) Will Kentucky have a problem (felt, or damaging events)?
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky: - KGS has begun a collaborative project to study this issue in eastern Kentucky - - Purpose: collect new data Establish background levels of natural, small-magnitude earthquakes Determine if oil- and gas-development and wastewater-injection activities in the state cause low-level seismicity to occur Identify characteristics that discriminate between natural and manmade seismic events. - Collaborators: Nanometrics, Inc. - Instrumentation and research and 1:1 station match Earth and Environmental Science Dept. Oil and Gas industry?
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky:
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky:
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky:
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky:
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky Project Status - Purchased seven seismic stations from Nanometrics - Established project participation: - Nanometrics (at least 1:1 station match) - Earth and Environmental Science Dept. - Sited locations for all 14 stations - Continue to seek industry partners
Can induced seismicity happen in Kentucky? Yes: - Thank You - - Kentucky is no stranger to induced seismicity - By definition, fracking induces (micro) earthquakes But: - Increased oil and gas production and wastewater injection could increase the likelihood of felt-events Need the right ingredients! KGS is investigating this issue by collecting new data to: Establish background levels of natural micro-earthquakes Monitor low-level induced seismicity Discriminate between the natural and manmade events.
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Felt-cases of probable and unambiguous injectioninduced-seismicity reported in the literature: Fracking Waste-water injection 2008 M 3.0 Quakes 1970 2007 2008 2014 (From Ellsworth, 2013, Science) 2001 Ashtabula, OH M 3.9 2010 Braxton Co., WV M 3.4 2014 S. KS / N. OK M 4.9 2013 Azle, TX M 3.4 1997 AL / KY M 4.9
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction 2011 Oklahoma M 5.6 http://www.newson6.com/story/15972590/earthquakedamages-historic-building-at-university-in-shawnee http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/manmade-earthquakes/
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky: Typical station layout
Monitoring Microseismicity in Eastern Kentucky: Magnitude Threshold M < 1 in particular regions Preliminary result for 9 stations (for illustration purposes only)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, 2010-2011 Rocky Mountain Arsenal, 1960s (Horton, 2012) (National Research Council, 2013)
Seismic Event: Magnitude How does magnitude relate to injection? (McGarr et al., 2014) (McGarr et al., 2002)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction Fracking and Induced Seismicity (Wessels et al., 2011)
Types of induced-seismic events: Which anthropogenic activities most frequently cause earthquakes and of what magnitude? Note: This figure presents only published results 1. Mining 2. Oil & Gas extraction 3. Reservoir impoundment 5. Waste disposal 8. Fracking (Davies et al., 2013)
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection
KRS 351.330: Requirements governing blasting operations In all blasting operations, except as hereinafter otherwise provided, the maximum peak particle velocity of the ground motion in any direction shall not exceed two (2) inches per second at the immediate location of any dwelling house, public building, school, church, commercial or institutional building, and the particle velocity at such location immediately after a period of one (1) second following the peak particle velocity produced by any charge shall not continuously exceed one-half (1/2) inch per second. This level of shaking (5 cm/s) is considered (MMI) Intensity V shaking
2 /s = 5 cm/s = (MMI) Intensity V: IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Heavy vibration, a sensation like a heavy truck striking building. Standing motorcars rocked noticeably. V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.
Types of induced-seismic events: Fluid Injection / Extraction (Davies et al., 2013)