9th US/Russian Space Surveillance Workshop Irkutsk, Russia 27-30 August 2012 Towards Solving the Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard Problem: Necessity of Implementation in the (Inter)National Space Situation Awareness System Boris Shustov Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences bshustov@inasan.ru
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Life and the human civilization on the Earth exist in the environment of cosmic threats. These are: space debris (everyday problem), space weather anomalies (one event in a few decades of years), asteroid/comet impact hazard (typical time interval - centuries), astrophysical catastrophes, biological invasions. 3
Small bodies in the Solar System Dust grains Meteoroids < ~ 1 mm < ~ 10 100 m Asteroids > ~ 10 100 m Comets - icy bodies of asteroidal size
Motions of minor bodies in the middle Solar System http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/animations/animations.html
Definitions: NEO, PHO, etc. Near Earth Objects (NEO)* asteroids and comets with orbits having q < 1.3 а.е. Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHO)* subclass of NEO. NEOs passing within less than 0.05 a.u. of Earth s orbit (MOID < 0.05 a.u. ) Threatening Objects still there exists no internationally accepted definition there exists. * NEA, PHA for asteroids.
Barringer Crater Winslow, Arizona Diameter 1240 m Depth 170 m Age ~ 50,000 yrs Impactor size - ~ 50 60 m Energy released - ~ 5-20 Mt fragments of Ni, Fe body found
Crater name Popigay (Попигай) Kara (Кара) Puchezh-Katun (Пучеж- Катун) Kamensky (Каменский) Logancha (Логанча) Elgygytgyn (Эльгыгытгын) Kaluzhsky (Калужский) Yanisyarvi (Янисъярви) Karlinsky (Карлинский) Large meteorite craters in Russia Coordinates latitude 71 38' 69 06' 56 58' 48 21' 65 31' 67 30' 54 30' 61 58' 54 55' longitude 111 11' 64 09' 43 o 43' 40 30' 95 56' 172 05' 36 12' 30 55' 48 02' Diameter km 100 65? 80 25 20 18 15 14 10 Age mln. years 35.7 ± 0.2 70.3 ± 2.2 167 ± 3 49.15 ±0.18 40 ±20 3.5 ± 0.5 380 700 ± 5 5 ± 1
Craters on the Earth and other celestial bodies 9
Frequencies and consequences of collisions Object Size of impactor Freq. (once per.. yrs) Crater size (km) Consequence of collision Dust grain D < 0.1cm - Meteoroid 0.1 см < D < 0.5 m - 0.5 m < D < 20-30 m > 30 m 250 no > 0.5 Could reach the Earth surface Tunguska like or Barringer crater Asteroid > 100 m 5 000 > 2 Regional catastrophe > 1 km 600 000 > 20 Global catastrophe 10 km 100 million 200 End of civilization
Hectometer size bodies are considered to be the most dangerous ones H Number of bodies of size D (log) most dangerous at time scale 10 5 yrs Time between collisions (log) At time scale of existence of homo sapiens (few 10 5 yrs) most dangerous are collisions with bodies of size: 50-100 m -air, ground Diameter D, km 100-200 m - water E, Mt TNT (log) Adapted from NASA s 2006 NEO Survey and Deflection Study
The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard (ACH) in comparison with other global threats Average number of victims per year is not higher than 1000 (A.Harris). This is much lower in compare to some technological, medical, social reasons. HOWEVER Collisions are rare but consequences can be very serious for the humankind. Quick growth of population, expansion of dangerous technologies make ACH factor more important.
The ACH as a global problem Being for many decades a very specific matter of fundamental research the ACH Problem is becoming a global issue.. The efficient approach to the problem implies the need of efficient international collaboration, i. e. cooperation of countries.
National NEO program is a practical way to the effective international cooperation The establishing of national NEO program seems to be a practical way to the real international cooperation. A good example of completed national NEO program is the Space Guard Survey (1998-2008) funded and controlled by NASA. The Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme (started in 2009) directly serves the strategic aims of the European Space Policy. We believe that for the effective participation of Russia in the international cooperation on the NEO problem we need to develop a comprehensive national (federal) program. 14
Arguments pro national (federal) program: in Russia 1. The NEO problem is a multi-problem. Various organizations are to be involved (coordinated); 2. The capabilities of research centers are not sufficient for implementation and support modern service of detection and monitoring of NEO, in particular those requiring space facilities; 3. The expensive technologies of preventing collisions and mitigation can be proposed but not be realized under the responsibility of research institutions; 4. Cooperation of countries on the NEO problem implies the involvement of Russia Government (or authorized body); 5. Regular funding. 15
Activity on the NEO problem in Russia is rising up Books on the NEO problem, published in Russia in 2010 16
Preparation of the national NEO program The draft concept of the long-term federal NEO (sub) program was prepared by the Expert Working Group on Space Threats by Space Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). he EWG includes representatives from the RAS, universities, industry, Roscosmos, EMERCOM, Rosatom as well as from other organizations interested in the problem. see for details http://www.inasan.ru/eng/asteroid_hazard/. In June 2010 a joint meeting of the heads of Roscosmos and the Space Council of the RAS was held. The draft concept was positively considered. Roscosmos and RAS expressed their wish to integrate issues of NEO and space debris in the Federal Program. Concrete steps were made in the direction in the period 2011 2012. 17
Concept scheme of the NEO (sub)program FEDERAL STRUCTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERAL NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION First priority tasks 18
Detection and monitoring (practical issues) Detection: Construction of new optical instruments for massive discovery of the NEOs. Monitoring: Organization of a coordinated network of existing astronomical instruments and/or construction of uniform series of instruments specially designed for monitoring. Data handling: Establishing the national information center responsible for collection, storage, analysis, etc. of observational data from Russia observatories and interaction with the MPC and other world centers. MPC is the only world (international) clearing house! 19
Comparision of NEO and space debris populations: to technical requirements for instruments 20
«Pan-STARRS four 1.8 m telescopes 3 degree field of view camera with 1.4 billion pixels. spatial sampling of the sky about 0.3 in survey mode will cover 6,000 deg2 per night. limiting magnitude of 24 (With exposure times up to 60 seconds) PS1 works! Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) 2016?
Wide-angle 1.6 m telescope АZТ-33VM Spectral range F focal ratio 400-1100 nm 5600 mm 1:3,5 2ω 2,8 0 2y 277 mm Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch of the RAS 23
Dome for the telescope АZТ-33VM October 2010 24
Project of space telescope for the detection NEOs 4 k 4k Quadro TSNII Elektron 25
2012.:...:.:.:. ;.;::..: :.:. N.:.:.:: E.::..: NEO THREAT DETECTION High Fidelity Data Processing, Exchange, Archive, Dissemination Observers Processing Archive Processing Interpretation Dissemination Roscosmos sponsored? Confidence Impact Predict Ratings U R Other MPC Capability III RKA N A O Shadow : :.: : : W S International Torino High.;.:.:..:. P. PHOs a :..:.:: Scale Confidence O NEO EU (ESA) n.:.:: Observers O Sponsored? ::..: P : Virtual Dynamics c B t Threat..: U :.. S NEO Site ESA i Level :;:.. Catalog :... PDS NEODyS o Information L Impact Obs Elsets n.:;..:. D A Predicts & NASA e to :... :.. Spacewatch T A Probabilities HQ d World : :... : T I Minor LINEAR PHOs Governm ts..:.. A P O.. NEO N :. Planet r B Center Catalina SS Palermo o U Program (NASA) Scale c S Office e PanSTARRS (IAU) (JPL) s SENTRY s US (NASA) Confidence Sponsored Ratings L.Johnson 2008
Characterization and Risk Assessment: Characterization: It is highly desirable to have full information on the threatening body. This information should include a lot of important data: precise and regularly updated orbital parameters, physical and chemical (mineralogical) properties, expected details of entry, etc. Risk Assessment : System for Reliable and timely risk assessment major outcome of the Program! We must act if risk is too high! I.e. much more frequently than real collisions occur. 27
Characterization of Potentially Hazardous Objects (practical issues) The Program includes establishing network for the follow-up observations of discovered NEOs and especially PHOs. Premises: Programs of observations of NEOs are being performed at Pulkovo Observatory (RAS), in the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (RAS), Special Astrophysical Observatory (RAS), Kazan University (with 150-cm telescope elevated in Turkey), Institute of Astronomy (RAS) with 2m telescope at Terskol observatory etc. + Observational networks: ISON (IAM RAS, for space debris), MASTER (MSU, for gamma bursts monitoring) etc. are suggested to be included in the national network. 28
Radar technology for NEOs (state of art in Russia and Ukraine) Evpatoria, Ukraine Ussuriisk, Russia The high level discussion on the use of 70-m radar in Ussuriisk for the study of PHO is going on. 29
Space mission Apophis The pre-phase A study of automated mission to an asteroid is completed. The Phase A will be completed in 2012. The major goals of the mission preliminary named Apophis are: - to carry out a study of physical and chemical properties of PHA - to put a special radio beacon into circum-asteroid orbit aimed to precise determination of the asteroid s orbital parameters. The period 2018-2022 seems to be the most reasonable window for the launch. The total mass of payload is about 800 kg. Both distant and contact (if a lander option will be included) modes of study are considered.
Preventing and mitigation R&D activity in Russia on the systems of preventing impact is going on These issues are politically sensitive ones. The internationally accepted strategy is highly desirable. The NEO Shield Project ( EC + USA and Russia) is an encouraging case!
International cooperation is vitally important!