Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Northern Colorado Business Innovations November 20, 2013 Loveland, Colorado So... How are we faring this ye
Our Climate is an essential natural resource Temperature Humidity Wind Sunshine Precipitation Storms Extremes Rapid changes
First -- A short background In 1973 the federal government abolished the State Climatologist program nationwide leaving Colorado without Later that same year, Colorado re-established the State Climate program with support through the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station at Colorado State University.
Colorado Climate Center Mission The Colorado Climate Center at CSU provides valuable climate expertise to the residents of the state through its threefold program of: 1) Climate Monitoring (data acquisition, analysis, and archiving), 2) Climate Research 3) Climate Services.(providing data, analysis, climate education and outreach)
Monitoring our Climate Elements: temperature, precipitation, snow, wind, solar, evaporation, soil temperatures, humidity, clouds, etc. Fort Collins Historic Weather Station. Continuous monitoring on CSU campus since the 1880s
There is good news -- The basics of our climate are not changing.
High elevation (highest state in the Union by far) Mid-Latitude location (lively seasonal changes) Interior Continental Location far from atmospheric moisture sources Complex Mountain topography Solar energy and seasonal cycles drive our climate
Colorado has and will continue to be a bright and sunny place most of the time and we ll not be too hot or too cold most of the time National Renewal Energy Laboratory: www.nrel.gov
Temperature (deg Fahrenheit) Winters will still be colder than summers 90 80 Average Monthly Temperature (9171-2000) for Selected Station Grand Junction Delta Palisade Collbran Vail Climax 70 60 50 http://www.youtube.com/cocorahs/ 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Actual daily temperatures will always be much more variable than the nice smooth monthly averages
We ll still get rain and snow but often not enough
Precipitation (inches) Precipitation in Colorado will still vary greatly from place to place with changing seasons Water Year Average Precipitation for Selected Stations 5.0 Grand Junction Vail Vail Pass Georgetown Denver Burlington 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Variability will drive us crazy and keep us humble No two years are ever the same
We ll think about paying good money for long-range forecasts, but those forecasts still won t be great El Nino periods La Nina periods 1950 2012
And sometimes Drought will just about put us under and make us really irritable Photo by Lyric Lucero 2013 Manzanola, CO
Impacts from drought may be perilous at time
If the basics of our climate are not changing much, is there a valid reason to still be concerned? My answer is YES
Here is our challenge
The changes we ve observed so far in our local climate are fairly modest and masked by year to year variations
We can tolerate warmer temperatures But only if our water supplies hold out
Lake Powell Historic Water Level
Lake Granby Historic Water Level
What comes next is sure to be very interesting
65 F Projected annual temperatures, 1950-2100 for northern Colorado, including Denver Ensemble of 16 GCMs (CMIP3), medium (A1B) emissions scenario (white line = ensemble median) 60 F 55 F 50 F +4ºF by 2050 vs. 1950-1999 Observed temp. 45 F 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 +7ºF by 2100 Source: Jeff Lukas, Western Water Assessment; Projections data available from http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/; Observed data available from PRISM, http://www.cefa.dri.edu/westmap/
How do our recent floods fit in? Credit: Henry Reges
1904 Poudre River Flood, Greeley, CO With or without climate change we ve had floods before Railroad tracks on N. College Ave. Credit: City of Fort Collins
Credit: Denver Public Library Digital Collections June 1921 Pueblo Flood
1935 Republican River Flood Credit: National Weather Service- Goodland, KS
September 1938 Flood in Eldorado Springs, CO Some Similarity to September 2013 Photo copyright by the Denver Public Library.
Credit: Colorado State University Library Flooding on Colorado State University Campus, 1938
1965 Flooding on South Platte River Credit: Denver Post
1976 Big Thompson Flood Credit: Denver Post
1997 Fort Collins Flood Credit: coloradoan.com
But what we just had was Big
Total Atmospheric Precipitable water over Denver from 1948-2012
September 11 12 Precipitation (inches)
Top 10 Years: 1. September 2013 2. May 1969 3. November 1946 4. April 1921 5. July/August 1976 6. March 2003 7. July 2012 8. June 1949 9. October 1923 10. April 1944
http://coflood2013.colostate.edu New content is still being added: Photos, resources and more Bookmark and share with friends!
September 2013 Colorado Floods Rainfall Report Coming Soon
Colorado Climate Center Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Nolan@atmos.Colostate.edu 970 491-3690