Greater Toronto Area/ Clean Air Council Air Quality Modeling Pilot Project Liveable Peel Conference February 10th, 2006 Anthony Ciccone, Ph.D., P.Eng. Principal Golder Associates Limited 2390 Argentia Road Mississauga, Ontario L5N 5Z7
Outline Introduction Why we model? How we are modelling Where we are modelling? What we will get out of the model?
Introduction Linkages between air quality and health Ontario s AQ is receiving greater attention Growing concern over general air quality Rising frequency of SMOG alerts Closing down of coal fired power plants Municipalities need to know what steps they can take and in what areas to improve the health of citizens
Levels of Government Federal policies are working at a sector level to reduce emissions Provinces are charged with permitting industrial sources and meeting Federal standards Municipal governments can develop air quality management plans
Drivers to Improve Air Quality Canada Wide Standards (PM2.5/O3) PM10 and precursors have been declared toxic under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) Underling theme is human health
Air Quality & Health Human Health Inhalation Exposure Air Quality Concentrations Atmospheric Process Air Emissions
Why do we model? Not enough air quality monitoring stations Peel only has two stations Measures historical changes in air quality Stations do not measure everything Find the best location for monitoring stations
Why do we model? Planning Ahead Avoid expenditures for poor designs Allows to defer expenditures when there is not an immediate need
Why do we model? Look into the future - Modelling allows us to answer those what if questions Increased capacity of roads New roadway make sense Cogeneration
Why Build New Roads?
The Modelling Process Emissions CALMET Predicted Wind Direction Frequency Wind Direction Frequency - ABTP OnSite 1996 N NNW 12% NNE 10% NW NE 8% 6% WNW ENE 4% 2% W 0% E WSW ESE SW SE SSW SSE S CALMET Predicted Wind S peed (m/s) by Direction N NNW 20 NNE NW 15 NE 10 WNW ENE 5 N 16% NNW NNE 14% NW 12% NE 10% 8% WNW 6% ENE 4% 2% W 0% E WSW ESE SW SE SSW SSE S Wind S peed (m/s) by Direction - ABTP OnS ite N NNW 20 NNE NW 15 NE 10 WNW ENE 5 Meteorology The Model Concentrations W 0 E W 0 E WSW ESE WSW ESE SW SE SW SSW SSE SE SSW SSE S S Average Maximum Average Maximum Receptors
Existing Toronto Air Quality Modelling System Based on CALPUFF/CALMET models CALMET meteorological data CALPUFF takes meteorological and emission data to determine ambient concentrations. AirTool Estimates emissions spatially using ArcGIS.
City of Toronto - Data Summary Meteorological Data 1996-2000 Receptors Nested grid 2 & 1 km Emission Data Point Reg127/NPRI for large emitters Area Developed AirTool based on MPAC property assessment Mobile Based on road network and level of traffic or forecast data.
Meteorological Stations 4880000 4860000 BUT N 4840000 TOR ISA Northing (m) 4820000 4800000 45139 LkOnt Meteorlogical Station Toronto Prov. Freeway 4780000 HAM STC 4760000 BUF Met Stations 560000 580000 600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000 Easting (m) Meteorological Station Locations Created by: LAB Figure: Scale: 1 : 25000 City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario NAD 83 UTM Date Created: May 12, 2004 AQIB
Nested Domains (Meteorological, Computational & Receptor) 4880000 4860000 BUT N 4840000 TOR ISA Northing (m) 4820000 4800000 45139 LkOnt Meteorlogical Station Toronto Prov. Freeway 4780000 HAM STC Meteorological Domain Computational Domain Receptor Domain 4760000 BUF Met Stations 560000 580000 600000 620000 640000 660000 680000 700000 Easting (m) Meteorological Station Locations Created by: LAB Figure: Scale: 1 : 25000 City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario NAD 83 UTM Date Created: May 12, 2004 AQIB
Nitrogen Oxides Concentrations 1 hr Predicted Levels 24 hr Predicted Levels 4858300 N 1200 4858300 N 300 4854300 4854300 1000 250 4850300 4850300 Northing (m) 4846300 4842300 800 600 Northing (m) 4846300 4842300 AAQC 200 150 100 4838300 AAQC 400 4838300 50 4834300 4834300 200 0 4830300 Monitoring Station 4830300 Monitoring Station Toronto Toronto 4826300 Major Arterial 4826300 Major Arterial 609500 613500 617500 621500 625500 629500 633500 637500 641500 645500 649500 Easting (m) Highways & Ramps 609500 613500 617500 621500 625500 629500 633500 637500 641500 645500 649500 Easting (m) Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( µ g/m ) Created by: LAB 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 µ g/m Scale: City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Date Created: NAD 83 UTM Figure: 1 : 25000 May 11, 2004 AQIB NO 24 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( µ g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 µ g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: 1 : 25000 May 11, 2004 AQIB
Pilot Project Expanding Domain Data Needs MPAC Information Traffic volume count Population count Information available from planning department What we have Meteorological Processing Programs Geographic Information AirTool Knowledge What Municipalities get Air quality at a street level resolution. Suitable for exposure and health estimates Capability to look at future What if Scenarios including Places to Grow
Phase One Started on the Phase 1 Expanded the computational domain Retrieving more detailed terrain data Expand the use of AirTool for forecasting Preparing the Base Case Scenario
Final Thought! If an activity pollutes, you must either do less of it, or make it cleaner to do. Gunnar Eskeland, World Bank