Chapter 1: Climate and the Atmosphere

ECC: 1.2.1 WARM-UP Students complete and discuss their responses to prompts in an Anticipation Guide. (10 min) Anticipation Guide. The expectation is that you will respond to the statements using what you know right now. You are not expected to know the right answers, and you will have a chance to revisit each statement from this guide later in the unit and change your thinking.

LW: 1.2.2 INTRODUCTION TO THE UNIT Students are introduced to the unit and the terms climate and climate change. (3 min) What causes climate change? Climate is the weather (temperature, rain, sun, wind) over a very long time. Climate change refers to ways the overall climate on Earth changes over long periods of time. You will learn a lot more about this as the unit progresses.

LW: 1.2.2 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATOLOGIST ROLE Students view a video about climate change and are introduced to the fictional organization for which they work. (7 min) You will learn about Climate Change issues by viewing a documentary video that shows professional climate scientists at work.

LW: 1.2.2 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATOLOGIST ROLE Students view a video about climate change and are introduced to the fictional organization for which they work. (7 min) You will be working as student climatologists / scientists who study Earth s climate.

LW: 1.2.2 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATOLOGIST ROLE Students view a video about climate change and are introduced to the fictional organization for which they work. (7 min) Your goal, by the end of the unit, will be to thoroughly answer the question of why the ice on Earth s surface is melting. To do this, you need to learn as much as you can about the Earth system so you can understand the changes we are currently seeing in Earth's climate.

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min) Your first task as student climatologists is to review data collected about ice melting, or decreasing, at the poles. Although there was evidence about climate change in the video, it is important to be skeptical and review data carefully.

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min) Some researchers did not initially agree with the claim that an increase in global average temperature caused ice to melt because at first glance, not all the evidence seemed to support this conclusion. You will look at the same data set the researchers looked at, with the goal of determining why all researchers did not initially agree.

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min) Some climate change data can help make strong arguments for what is occurring. Other data is weaker and less convincing. In this activity, you will learn to use the same criteria that scientists use when determining whether a set of data is strong enough to be convincing.

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min) The strongest evidence goes near the top (the darkest area). Less strong evidence goes lower, either in the middle or at the bottom of the gradient. Evidence of equal strength can be on the same level. You will work in pairs for this activity. Each pair will receive a set of Melting Ice Evidence Cards and one Evidence Gradient.

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min) The instructions say to analyze each card first. Before step 2 (deciding with a partner where on the Evidence Gradient each card belongs), You will need to carefully read each card and make sure you understand what the data is saying.

The title is an important feature on a graph. This tells us that this graph provides data about the amount of ice covering the Arctic Sea from the years 2002 to 2013, or 11 years. LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA

Take a look at the labels on each axis. The bottom label (xaxis) says Year, and the side label (y-axis) says Million square kilometers of ice. These labels tell you that I will be looking at how much ice there was in certain years, and that will help you understand this graph. LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA

With this information, you can begin to read the graph. I see the points, and the lines that connect the points, show that the amount of ice measured during the summer months changed a lot, since the graph moves up and down a lot. You will discuss with your partner what you think this means, as well as any other ideas you have about this data. LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA

You will work with your partner and analyzing Card A, as well as the other two cards. Analyzing the data in pairs they will then choose where to place each card on the Evidence Gradient. LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA

LW: 1.2.3 ANALYZING CLIMATE DATA Pairs of students analyze evidence that ice on Earth has decreased and discover that data trends offer stronger supporting evidence than fluctuations. (15 min)

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) This is another piece of climate data, but it also shows a pair of concepts that are important in earth science.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) It is important to have data from a long-enough time period to tell the difference between a trend (overall tendency in a set of data over time), and fluctuations (variations in a set of data). Look at the data to see if it shows an overall increase, decrease, or no overall change.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) "When looking at this graph that shows temperature changes since 1870, I see there are many fluctuations the temperature goes up and down a lot but the tendency, or overall change, is an increase in global average temperature. If you only looked at data from a shorter time, for example from 1945 to 1950, you might conclude that temperature decreased, but that is just a fluctuation. If you follow the larger trend, which you can see by following the blue line on the graph, you see it shows an overall increase in temperature."

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) This unit will focus on stability and change, an important concept in many science topics. Distinguishing fluctuations from trends will be an important part of telling whether something is changing or staying stable (unchanged over time).

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Determining whether something is a trend or a fluctuation is an important way that climate scientists determine the quality or strength of evidence. In this unit, you will focus on looking at data and deciding if it is a trend or a fluctuation. Doing this will help you to decide how strong and convincing a given piece of evidence is.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) When people only use data from a short time period as evidence in climate science, it might seem like one fluctuation refutes the claim. However, longer trends are much more powerful indicators of long-term changes, and they provide much stronger, more convincing evidence.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Data from a long-enough time period to show a trend offers stronger, more convincing evidence than data from a short time period that only shows fluctuations.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Remember, climate is the weather (temperature, rain, sun, wind) over a long period of time, and climate change refers to the ways that climates in regions on Earth change over long periods of time. Because climatologists are focused on long periods of time, they don t want to just look at the weather over a few days, months or even years. In order to explain something that is happening to Earth s climate, climatologists need to look at longer periods of time.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Trends show what is happening over long periods of time; fluctuations are just variations in the data. In future lessons we will continue to think about these differences and use this to determine whether the data we are examining is strong or not.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Revisit the evidence from the Melting Ice Evidence Cards. Consider the following questions: Which evidence graphs show a long-enough time period to tell if there is a trend? Which evidence graphs show such a short time period that all you see are fluctuations?

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Revisit the evidence from the Melting Ice Evidence Cards. Consider the following questions: Why did some scientists initially disagree that overall ice was decreasing? Scientists could have been looking at fluctuations by only looking at short periods of time, not looking at overall trends.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) If we hadn t analyzed this evidence to decide which cards provide evidence of the highest quality, Evidence Card A might have caused us to doubt the claim that ice is decreasing. Because Card A only covers 11 years, the fluctuations are big enough that we miss out on the trend of decreasing ice that we can see over longer periods of time.

LW: 1.2.4 TREND AND FLUCTUATION IN CLIMATE RESEARCH Students learn about the evidence criterion for data, long-term trends vs. short-term fluctuations, and determine which evidence card is more convincing. (10 min) Now that we have looked closely at the evidence, we can be more certain that ice and average global temperature have been changing, which leads us to this key concept, Although there are many fluctuations, there is a trend of rising temperature and decreasing ice on Earth since about 1880. Tomorrow we will investigate why that might be happening.

Students choose an article to read and annotate. Reading About the Effects of Climate Change Of the three articles in The Effects of Climate Change, select at least one to read. Choose from "Warming and Habitat Loss," "Warming and Sea Level Rise," or "Warming and Extreme Weather." Use your Active Reading skills as you read and annotate the article you chose. After reading, answer the question below the article, and then press HAND IN. LW: 1.2.5 HOMEWORK

LW: 3.6.3 PREPARING TO WRITE Students revisit a diagram from the Harvesting Sunlight article. (5 min) Answer Here Answer Here Answer Here Answer Here

LW: 3.6.5 HOMEWORK (SELF ASSESSMENT) Check Your Understanding This is a chance for you to reflect on your learning so far. This is not a test. Be open and truthful when you respond to the questions. Scientists investigate in order to figure things out. Am I getting closer to understanding why Australia s skin cancer rate is so high?