Research on Climate of Typhoons Affecting China Xu Ming Shanghai Typhoon Institute November,25
Outline 1. Introduction 2. Typhoon disasters in China 3. Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting China 4.Climate prediction of typhoon affecting China 5. Summary
The global average surface temperature has increased over the 2th century by about.6 C. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 C over the period 199 to 21. (From IPCC 21)
More frequent, persistent and intense warm episodes of ENSO since the mid-197s Global sea level rose by 1-2 cm during the 2th century. 1% decrease in snow cover since 196s (IPCC 21)
Climate Change and Tropical cyclones IPCC Report (21) 1. It is likely that peak wind intensities will increase by 5 to 1% and mean and peak precipitation intensities by 2 to 3% in some regions; 2. There is no direct evidence of changes in the frequency or areas of formation. No evidence for typhoon intensity increase over the past 4 yr (Chan and Liu 24) More major hurricanes since 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 21), multidecadal oscillation (Bell et al. 25) A South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone
Climate Change and Tropical cyclone Intensity Emanuel, K., 25, Nature, 436, 686-688 PDI= V 3 dt
Typhoon disasters in China
Natural Disasters Throughout human history, natural disasters have played a major role in the economic development and survival of humanity. The economic cost associated with all natural disasters has increased 14 fold since the 195s Deaths since the 195s increased 5 percent each decade, whereas the corresponding population growth rate was only 2 percent World wide, annual economic costs related to natural disasters have been estimated at about $ 5 to 1 billion. By the year 25 it is predicted that globally1, lives will be lost each year to natural disasters and the global cost could top $ 3 billion annually
Percentage of Total Number of People Reported Affected by Hydro- Meteorological Disasters by Region <1% 2% 6% 91% <1%
14 12 1 8 6 4 2 11561 578 4185 2278 2371 1398 286 2381 1292 268 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Economic losses of Tropical cyclone disaster (unit: million US$) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1815 143 95 564 27 36 32 347 217 259 115 6 179 231 212 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 Number of deaths of typhoon disasters Losses caused by typhoon disaster in China
Climatology and climate change of typhoon affecting China
3. 2.5 Monthly Distribution of TC Landing China Landfall TC TS STS TY 2. 1.5 1..5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Multi-Landfall TC TS STS TY. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12
Main Tracks of TC Affecting China
Number of TCS affecting China atcbtscty 25 Affecting TCs 2 15 1 5 25 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Affecting TSs 2 15 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 2 Affecting TYs 15 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
asouth ChinabEast China 16 14 Affecting TCs (South China) 12 1 8 6 4 2 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 16 14 Affecting TCs (East China) 12 1 8 6 4 2 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Affecting scope of typhoon precipitation atcbtscty 25 TCs Rainfll 2 15 1 5 25 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 TSs Rainfall 2 15 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 15 TYs Rainfall 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Affecting scope of typhoon wind power (a)tc (b)ts (c)ty 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Severe-Wind (TCs) 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Severe-Wind (TSs) 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Severe-Wind (TYs) 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Annual accumulated rainfall of typhoons achinabsouth ChinacEast China 4 Annual TC Rainfall 25 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Annual TC Rainfall (South China) 2 15 1 5 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Annual TC Rainfall (East China) 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Intensity of typhoon affecting wind power achinabsouth ChinacEast China 25 TC Distruction Potential 2 15 1 5 1 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 TDP (South China) 8 6 4 2 15 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 TDP (East China) 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
Number of typhoons landing China atcbtscty 18 Landfalling TCs 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 15 Landfalling TSs 1 5 15 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Landfalling TYs 1 5 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Landfalling TCs -- South China 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 6 Landfalling TSs -- South China 5 4 3 2 1 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Landfalling TCs -- East China 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 Landfalling TSs -- East China 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 14 12 Landfalling TYs -- South China 6 5 Landfalling TYs -- East China 1 4 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 195 1955 196 1965 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2
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Economical losses caused by typhoons in China(1 thousands Yuan) 1 8 6 4 2 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2
Typhoon affecting East China in historical times Reconstruct and analyze historical disaster records
Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation Trend of typhoon counts was deduced from the model simulation results based on the relationship between typhoons counts and atmospheric general circulation over western north Pacific ocean. Large-scale factors that influencing the generation of typhoon used in this research :upper level circulation, vertical shear of horizontal wind
Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation R3 Coupled Model of GFDL / NOAA Results integrated 1yrs IPCC SRES A2 IPCC SRES B2
Anomaly of 2 hpa diversity during JunSep over West North Pacific S -1 1-7 4 3 TC 1.9% More A2 Scenario 2 1-1 -2-3 21 2 3 4 5 6 TC11.6% Less 3 2 B2 Scenario 1-1 -2-3 -4 21 2 3 4 5 6 TC 1.4% Less
Projection of Typhoon Number Based on the IPCC-Scenario Simulation Under the assumption of IPCC A2, which means more emission of greenhouse gas,typhoon number will be above normal during 21-23, and typhoon number will be less than normal during 231-245. Under the assumption of IPCC B2, which means emission of greenhouse gas is controlled,typhoon number will be be less than normal during 21-245.
Climate prediction of typhoon affecting China
Climate prediction of number of typhoons affecting East China and Shanghai Predictands:5hPa HeightSST Methods: Regression, PP Prediction time : 2December,March
Climate prediction of typhoon affecting East China 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Fo re c a st Ob se rva tio n 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24
Climate prediction of number of typhoons over western North Pacific Ocean and number of typhoons landing China Method:RegressionAnalogue Predictands:5hPa HeightSLPVertical Shear of horizontal wind, SST Prediction results of 25: Below normal for typhoons over NW Pacific normal for typhoons landing China
Summary 1. Some progresses have been made in the field of climate of typhoon affecting China. 2.Mechanisms of long term and short term climate change of typhoon affecting China are still unclear. 3. The assessment of typhoon disaster impacts is underdeveloped
Tank You!