GEOG 671: WEATHER FORECASTING Tuesday- Thursday 11:10am - 12:30pm, Kingsbury 134N Dr. Mary Stampone Associate Professor & Chair Department of Geography Welcome to Weather Forecasting! There are few things in nature that impact our daily lives as significantly as weather. Knowing what the weather is like now and what it might be like a few hours or days from now has numerous practical applications in everyday life. There is a wealth of weather information available to the public but the ability to interpret and apply weather forecast information can give you a professional and/or personal advantage over the typical weather consumer. This course provides the scientific background on the processes that control our weather and the practice applying this knowledge to better understand the weather you encounter. Throughout the semester, you will learn where to look for weather information and how to use it to develop near- term weather forecasts for operational and/or practical applications. Topics include the basics of atmospheric science, weather system development and movement, and the techniques used to forecast temperature, precipitation and severe weather. The course is divided into three parts: (1) how weather is measured, observed, and monitored, (2) atmospheric motion and the development of weather systems, and (3) weather forecasting process and techniques. The first third of the semester will introduce how weather observations are made, displayed, and used in forecasting. This section will teach you how to access and use weather data for specific forecast applications (e.g. thunderstorm development, precipitation type). Knowing how to access and use weather data, the second section covers the physical laws that govern the formation and movement of weather systems. Here, you will learn how to analyze weather maps for weather system development and movement. For the remainder of the semester, we will use the concepts previously covered to produce local scale weather forecasts for precipitation, daily temperature, and severe weather. Concepts will be reinforced quantitatively through homework and in- class exercises using basic mathematical (+, -,, ), trigonometric (sine, cosine etc ), and algebraic (fractions and exponents) operations. Weather data will be analyzed graphically using graphs, tables, weather station models, and maps. I hope you enjoy this course and take with you a better understanding of the natural environment that surrounds you. Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments you may have about this course. Page - 1
BASICS Time & Place: TR 11:10AM to 12:30PM N134 Kingsbury Hall Instructor Info: Dr. Mary D. Stampone mary.stampone@unh.edu 102A Huddleston Hall (603) 862-3136 Office Hours: MW 1:30-2:30 pm Or by appointment TR 9:00-10:00 am Course Materials: There is no required textbook for this course. All course documents, including required readings, are posted on mycourses (https://mycourses.unh.edu) and are organized by lesson (one through nine). Required readings will be assigned from the following: (Reference) Lutgens, F.K. and E.J. Tarbuck, The Atmosphere, 12 th Edition (Recommended) Vasquez, T. (2011), Weather Analysis & Forecasting Handbook (Registration Required) The Comet Program, MetEd (https://www.meted.ucar.edu) We will also regularly refer to the following websites for weather observations and forecast information: National Weather Service http://www.weather.gov/current PSU E- Wall http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Wyoming Weather Web http://weather.uwyo.edu Additionally, homework assignments and in- class work will be hands on requiring the following: Battery- operated calculator with trigonometric functions (sin, cos, tan etc ) Colored pencils, No. 2 pencil with eraser, ruler with English and metric units PDF viewing (Adobe), word & data processing (Microsoft Office) software This classroom is equipped with desktop computers to be used for course related activities only. Personal use of hand- held digital devices or computers is not permitted in lecture by Faculty Senate rule. Personal use includes, but is not limited to: text, instant or email messaging, social media, and web browsing. Anyone caught engaging in such activity will be asked to leave immediately and will be given an unexcused absence. Page - 2
GRADING PROCEDURES I do not take off points. You earn them In other words, you start with zero points and earn your way to a grade. - Art Carden, Contributor, Forbes All coursework submitted for evaluation must represent each student s own, original work. All assignments and exams must be completed individually, without collaboration, in accordance with the standards of conduct outlined in Section 09: Academic Honesty of the UNH Students Rights, Rules and Responsibility (http://www.unh.edu/student- life/handbook/academic- honesty). Exams: There are 3 in- class exams, each worth 15% of the final grade. Course material is comprehensive however exam questions are drawn from the most recent lecture material and assignments. Exams are partially open resource the format includes calculations, short- answer, and essay questions. Assignments: There are 10 homework assignments together worth 40% of the final grade. Homework assignments are due at the beginning of, or before, class on the indicated due date. Assignments submitted after the due date will be accepted for half credit up to one week after the due date, after which a grade of 0 will be assigned. Participation: The remaining 15 % of the final grade will be based on the level of participation in lecture activities including discussion, example problems, and forecast demonstrations. In- class work must be submitted through the assignment page on mycourses at the end of lecture. Final Grades: Final grades will be determined based on the weighted scores on exams, assignments, and participation and assigned using the following grade distribution: A 93 % B+ 87 % C+ 77 % D+ 67 % A- 90 % B 83 % C 73 % D 63 % B- 80 % C- 70 % D- 60 % Exam grades may be curved depending upon class performance. Objective evaluation of effort, improvement and attendance may also be taken into account when determining individual final grades, however, no individual extra credit will be offered so don t ask. Page - 3
ATTENDANCE It has been shown that students who attend class regularly and avoid personal use of computers and hand- held digital devices during lecture perform better on exams and in class than those who do not. Students are responsible for obtaining any missed material and announcements due to an absence, tardiness or other distractions. Participation in class discussions is required and goes hand in hand with regular class attendance. Attendance: Formal attendance will not be taken during lecture but if you are absent, late or leave early, you are responsible for any missed material and announcements and will not receive participation credit for the class period. Both tardiness and early departure is disruptive, and may cause you, and your classmates, to miss important material. Excused Absences: To ensure that all students have an equal opportunity to demonstrate an understanding of course material, all coursework must be completed and submitted by the listed due dates/time. An exception may be granted for: 1.) absences due to participation in University sponsored organizations and activities. Documentation must be provided at least one week in advance of the absence. 2.) absences in which prior arrangements have been made. Such arrangements must be made at least one week in advance of the absence. 3.) absences due to serious illness or a medical emergency accompanied by a doctor s note. 4.) absences due to ongoing family or personal hardships in which a college approved absence has been granted. You must contact your college s Dean s office for a letter verifying your absence. In all cases, students are expected to make arrangements to complete missed work. In the case of an absence without prior arrangements, an excused absence must be arranged within 48 hours of the missed class period. I do not need the reason for the absence or the details relating to it, I simply need verification that the absence was unavoidable. Missed Work: Assignments are due at the beginning of, or prior to, the class period on the due date listed in the course schedule. Assignments submitted after the due date will be accepted for half credit up to one week after the due date, after which a grade of 0 will be assigned. There is no penalty for late work due to an excused absence. Page - 4
STUDENT RESPONSIBILITIES Being a student is your profession and you are expected to conduct yourself in a professional manner concerning all matters of this course. University Policies: All students should know and understand university policies and procedures regarding academic performance, including attendance and academic dishonesty. If you are unfamiliar with these policies, please refer to the University of New Hampshire Student Rights, Rules, and Responsibilities for details: http://www.unh.edu/student/rights/. To ensure a climate of learning for all, disruptive or inappropriate behavior (repeated outbursts, disrespect for the ideas of others, etc) may result in exclusion (removal) from this class. Class is not over until the instructor has completed the day s lecture so do not expect, nor prepare, to leave before class is dismissed. Additionally, all forms of communication directed toward the instructor(s) and classmates should be conducted in a professional manner. Emails should be addressed appropriately, contain your name and text should be written using proper English. Procedures, policies, and schedules may change during the course semester. Any changes will be announced in class and/or posted on mycourses. Announcements may also be distributed via email. It is your responsibility to check your university email account and the course homepage on mycourses regularly. Accessibility: The University is committed to providing students with documented disabilities equal access to all University programs and facilities. If you have a disability requiring accommodations, you must register with Disability Services for Students (DSS). Contact DSS at (603) 862-2607 or disability.office@unh.edu. If you have received Accommodation Letters for this course from DSS, please provide me with that information privately so that we can review those accommodations. Details at: http://www.unh.edu/disabilityservices/disabilityservices.html. Your academic success in this course is very important. If you find emotional or mental health issues are affecting that success, please contact the University s Counseling Center (http://www.unhcc.unh.edu; 3 rd floor, Smith Hall; 2-2090), for counseling appointments and other mental health services. Page - 5
CLASS SCHEDULE Week Topic Assignment Weather Data: Review: Keys to Meteorology (Handout) Aug 29 Lesson 1: Introduction to Atmospheric Variables Basic Measures & Scale (Vasquez: 1.1-7, 1.16; MetEd) Lesson 1: Introduction to Atmospheric Variables (cont ) Sep 5 Observation Networks & Reporting (Vasquez: 2) Chart Analysis (Vasquez: 5.1; MetEd) Lesson 2: Remote Sensing Sep 12 Radar & Satellite (Vasquez: 7 & 8; MetEd) Lesson 3: Vertical Variations in Temperature Sep 19 Adiabatic Processes & Stability (Vasquez: 3.1-4; MetEd) Stability Indices (Vasquez: 3.5-7) Sep 26 Exam One: Data Interpretation & Display - Thursday, September 29 Weather Processes: Lesson 4: Atmospheric Motion Oct 3 Physical Forces I (Vasquez: 1.8-10; Textbook Supplement) Global Circulation & Jets (Vasquez: 1.18, 4.6) Lesson 4: Atmospheric Motion (cont ) Physical Forces II (Vasquez: 1.11-12, 4.7; Textbook Supplement) Oct 10 Lesson 5: Upper- Level Airflow Waves & Pressure Systems (Vasquez: 4.1-3, 6.3-7) Lesson 5: Upper- Level Airflow (cont ) Oct 17 Divergence/Convergence (Vasquez: 4.4-5) Vertical Motion (Vasquez: 1.13, 4.11-13) Lesson 6: Surface Weather Systems Oct 24 Air Mass Movement (Vasquez: 4.8-9, 5.2-5) Frontal Weather Systems (Vasquez: 6.1-2; MetEd) Oct 31 Exam Two: Weather Processes - Thursday, November 3 Weather Forecasting: GEOG671: Syllabus Fall 2016 Ex 1: Due 9/13 Ex 2: Due 9/20 Ex 3: Due 9/27 Ex 4: Due 10/18 Ex 5: Due 10/21 Ex 6: Due 11/1 Lesson 7: Numerical Weather Prediction (Vasquez: 12.1-6) Ex 7: Due 11/15 Nov 7 The Forecast Funnel (Vasquez 10.1; MetEd) Guide to Computer Programs PROGS (Vasquez 10.2-5) Lesson 8: Temperature Forecasting Ex 8: Due 11/29 Nov 14 Model Output Statistics MOS (MetEd) Daily Maximum/Minimum Temperature Nov 21 No Class - Thanksgiving Lesson 9: Precipitation Forecasting Ex 9: Due 12/6 Nov 28 Probability of Precipitation PoP (MetEd) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast QPF (Vasquez: 6.8; MetEd) Dec 5 Broadcast Meteorology Ex 10: 12/8 Dec 12 Exam Three: Forecasting Tuesday, December 13 (3:30-5:30 pm) ***Note: Dates and topics may change. Any changes made to the schedule will be announced in class and posted online. It is your responsibility to be aware of these changes.