THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA MINISTRY OF WORKS, TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION TANZANIA METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TANZANIA MARCH MAY, 2018 MASIKA RAINFALL SEASON
Highlights for March May, 2018 Masika rainfall Season This statement gives evolution of the climate systems and outlook for the March to May, 2018 rainfall season, advisories and early warnings to various weather sensitive sectors such as, Agriculture and food security, Livestock and wildlife, Natural Resources and Tourism, Energy and water, Local Authorities, Health sector and Disaster Management. The Outlook for March to May 2018 Masika rainfall season indicates that: a) Outlook for March to May 2018 Masika rainfall season: For the period of March to May, 2018, Masika rains are likely to be mainly normal over most areas. However, there is likelihood of elevated periods of below normal rainfall over parts of Northern Tanga region. Meanwhile, the seasonal rains, which started in November, 2017 are expected to progress as forecasted in unimodal areas (Dodoma, Singida, Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Rukwa, Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Iringa, Ruvuma, Lindi, Mtwara regions and southern part of Morogoro region). The rains are likely to be normal to above normal.. Short periods of heavy rains are expected in Masika, 2018 rain season. The rains are expected to cease in the third week of May, 2018. Expected Impacts Incidences of heavy rainfall may results into floods and impacts in various sectors. Various sections in the country are advised to prepare and take necessary precaution so as to minimize the negative impact of the expect rainfall. 2
(I) SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARCH - MAY 2018 Based on current and expected climate systems (As indicated in part II of this statement), normal rains are expected over most parts of the country. However, pockets of above normal rains are likely over Lake Victoria basin and few areas of the Northern coast with the exception of northern parts of Tanga region. Meanwhile, the seasonal rains, which started in November, 2017 are expected to progress as forecasted in unimodal areas (Dodoma, Singida, Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Rukwa, Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Iringa, Ruvuma, Lindi, Mtwara and southern part of Morogoro regions). The rains are likely to be normal to above normal. Details of the rainfall season are as follows: 1. March to May Season rains (Masika) over Bimodal areas The March to May (MAM) rainfall season (Masika) is more significant for the areas over the northeastern highlands, northern coast including the Isles of Unguja and Pemba, Lake Victoria Basin and the northern parts of Kigoma and Morogoro regions. The Masika 2018 rains are expected to be normal to above normal over the eastern and western parts of the Lake Victoria Basin and mainly normal over the southern parts of the Lake Victoria basin, northern parts of Kigoma and northeastern highlands. The northern coast (Dar es salaam, Pwani and northern Morogoro together with Unguja and Pemba isles) are expected to feature normal to above normal rainfall while pockets of below normal rains are expected over Tanga region. 1.2 Lake Victoria Basin: (Kagera, Mara, Mwanza, Geita, Simiyu and Shinyanga regions): Rains are expected to start during the first week of March in Mwanza region and spread to other regions of Geita, Mara, Kagera, Simiyu and Shinyanga during the second to third week of March, 2018. The rains are expected to be normal to above normal over Kagera, Mara and northern parts of Geita, Mwanza and Simiyu which are closer to the Lake Victoria. Otherwise, Shinyanga region and the southern parts of Geita, Mwanza and Simiyu regions are expected to feature mainly normal with pockets of below normal rains. 3
1.3 Northern Coast areas and its Hinterlands: (Dar es Salaam, Tanga, and Coast regions, Islands of Unguja and Pemba and northern Morogoro areas): Rains are expected to commence in the first week of March, 2018. The rains are expected to be normal to above normal over Dar es Salaam and Pwani regions together with the isles of Unguja and Pemba, northern part of Morogoro and southern parts of Tanga regions. However, below normal rains are expected over northern parts of Tanga region. 1.4 North-Eastern Highlands: (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions): Rains are expected to start over most areas in the second week of March, 2018 and are likely to be mainly normal over most areas. 2. Seasonal Rainfall (November to April) over Unimodal areas: Seasonal rains, which started in November, 2017 are expected to progress as forecasted in unimodal areas (Dodoma, Singida, Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Rukwa, Mbeya, Songwe, Njombe, Iringa, Ruvuma, Lindi, Mtwara regions and southern part of Morogoro region). The rains are likely to be normal to above normal. Outlook for the coming rainfall season March to May 2018 Climatological long-term average (normal) rainfall for March to May It should be noted that events of heavy and short duration rainfall might occur even over areas with normal rainfall conditions. 4
(II) CLIMATE SYSTEMS OUTLOOK The observed gradual cooling over Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to persist through the season. Mostly neutral Sea Surface Temperature conditions are expected over much of Western Indian Ocean. However, there is an enhanced warming condition over South Western Indian Ocean during the season. As the March to May, 2018 rainfall season progresses, the warming over South-Western Indian Ocean is likely to enhance occurrence of tropical cyclones during the months of march to April 2018. Cooling over Southeast Atlantic Ocean near Angola coast is likely to enhance westerly wind flow from Congo Basin towards the country resulting into moisture influx into the country thus contributing to the enhancement of rainfall over the country. (III) LIKELY IMPACTS AND ADVISORY Agriculture, Food Security, Fisheries and Livestock Production Sufficient soil moisture condition is likely to feature over the northeastern highlands (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Manyara regions), Lake Victoria basin (Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, Shinyanga, and Simiyu regions) and northern coast (Morogoro (north), Dar es Salaam, Pwani and Tanga regions, islands of Unguja and Pemba). Farmers in these areas are advised to go for normal Masika cropping season. However, the northern part of Tanga region is expected to experience periods of moisture deficit and therefore farmers are advised to plant drought tolerant and early maturing crop varieties. Water and pastures conditions and food for fish are expected to improve due to the expected normal to above normal rainfall. However, for optimal use of this outlook, the farmers, fishers and livestock keepers are strongly advised to seek more advice from their relevant extension officers and also carry out rainwater harvesting for future use during dry periods. 5
Energy, Minerals and Water In areas where normal to above normal rainfall is expected, improvement of water level in dams is likely to occur. Farmers and livestock keepers are advised to harvest rain water for immediate and future use. As for those who are engaged in small-scale mining activities, safety precaution should be observed as excessive water in the soil may trigger landslides and cave-ins. However, over the northern parts of Tanga region where normal to below normal conditions are likely, water levels over the dams and rivers are likely to have insignificant improvement from the current levels, thus efficient use of water for various sectors including the power generation are highly advised. Energy mix is also highly encouraged to merge the expected energy gap from hydro power generation. Local Authorities Despite the anticipation that much of the country is likely to feature mainly normal rains, short periods of heavy rains may occur even in the areas which are likely to feature normal rains. Therefore, local authorities as well as the community are advised to clean water drainage systems so as to avoid possible water accumulation due to surface runoff and floods that may cause damage to houses, infrastructure and property leading to injury and loss of lives. Health sector The expected rains are likely to trigger the outbreak of diseases. Therefore, the responsible authorities concerned with public health and individuals are advised to take appropriate health measures needed to minimize the expected negative impacts on health. Disaster Management Disaster management authorities, humanitarian responders and other stakeholders are advised to take necessary mitigation measures to ensure preparedness for effective response to address potential negative impacts that may result from the expected rains. 6
Media The media are advised to obtain, make regular follow-up and disseminate weather and climate information and warnings including the updates as provided by appropriate weather and climate warning Authority i.e. the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA). Moreover, Media are encouraged to seek and obtain inputs from relevant sectors when preparing and communicating cross cutting issues related to Weather and Climate to the Public. Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) advises all users of weather information including farmers, livestock keepers, wildlife conservation authorities, hydrological and health sectors to continue seeking and utilizing experts advice on their relevant sectors. NB: The current status of seasonal forecasting allows for prediction of spatial and temporal averages over larger areas and may not fully account for all physical and dynamical factors that influence short-term climate variability. Users of this outlook are, therefore urged to make good use of daily, ten day and monthly updates issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency. Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) will continue to monitor developments of the weather systems and issue updates whenever appropriate. Issued by Tanzania Meteorological Agency: Dr. Agnes L. Kijazi DIRECTOR GENERAL 7