Space Engineering International Course, Kyutech, 4 th Quarter Semester 2017 Space Weather and Satellite System Interaction Lecture 2: Space Weather Concept, Reporting and Forecasting Assoc. Prof. Ir. Dr. Mohamad Huzaimy Jusoh huzaimy.uitm@gmail.com
SPACE WEATHER Definition used by the US National Space Weather Plan: Conditions on the Sun and the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life and health.
Space weather sources: The Sun is the main driver of space weather near Earth. Other Sources - Natural Galactic cosmic rays (energetic particles close to the speed of light; 20% reduced during solar max; the solar wind work as a shelter) Meteoroids originate from comets and asteroids snowy, icy, stony or metallic compunds (μ- m). Other Sources - Anthropogenic Gravity waves generated by explosions Nuclear explosion tesing in the 60 s led to aurora and radiation belt enhancements Electromagnetic waves : high power lines, radio and TV emitters, radars, city-light. Gas and debris generated by spacecraft and spacecraft launches. NASA/JPL-Caltech, 2013
Space Weather system CMEs Sunspot Solar wind Geomagnetic storm Ionosphere Solar flares Sun Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnetosphere Geospace Earth Heliosphere Photo courtesy of Prof Yohsuke Kamide 4
Sunspot Number Variation of Solar Cycle Solar cycle (SC) represents the number of sunspot observed on the sun which has 11-year cycle (average). Solar Cycles 11 year cycle SC 18 SC 19 SC 20 SC 21 SC 22 SC 23 Sunspots observed by NASA Source: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 5
Sunspots Sunspots denote regions of strong magnetic fields. They appear dark because they are relatively cooler than the surface. Source: AGU
The 11 year sunspot cycle The amount of magnetic activity on the Sun varies in an 11 year cycle. A regular cycle of sunspot numbers over the past 300 years. Source: AGU
Sunspots appear at different latitudes throughout the solar cycle June 12, 2000 Jan 7, 2004 Source: AGU
The 11 year solar cycle: where are we now?
Space Weather system CMEs Sunspot Solar wind Geomagnetic storm Ionosphere Solar flares Sun Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnetosphere Geospace Earth Heliosphere Photo courtesy of Prof Yohsuke Kamide 10
Interplanetary Space/Magnetic Field Solar Wind Constant outflow from the sun Electrons and protons Disturbances from the sun produce waves and shocks in the solar wind Source of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections? Magnetic field lines poke through the solar surface, producing sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections. Source: AGU
Solar Eruptions Common during the Sun s active periods Huge flare of 28 October 2003 Solar prominence dwarfs Earth in size Source: AGU
CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) in Interplanetary Space While Solar flares send out light (mostly x-rays) CMEs produce Energetic particles Magnetic structures Propagate away from the sun but their paths are modified by the background solar wind and the sun s magnetic field. Image from NASA SOHO Satellite Image from NASA SOHO Satellite Source: Viereck, NOAA
Illustrations of coronal mass ejections http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/gallery/movies/c3may97/c3may97sm.mov http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/gallery/movies/c2prot00/c2prot00.mov
ACE Solar Wind Solar Wind Density 1 to 100 particles per cm 3 Speed 200 to 800 km/sec Source: Viereck, NOAA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
Classifications of solar flare intensity Categories A & B -- Small Category C -- larger but few noticeable consequences to Earth Category M Medium; cause radio blackouts that affect Earth s polar regions Category X major events that can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and severe radiation storms Chart (2 channel) from 2-5 November 2003 shows 4 X-class and many B, C, and M class flares Category X28 flare, largest ever recorded, erupts on November 4, 2003 Source: AGU
Space Weather system CMEs Sunspot Solar wind Geomagnetic storm Ionosphere Solar flares Sun Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnetosphere Geospace Earth Heliosphere Photo courtesy of Prof Yohsuke Kamide 17
Magnetosphere What happens when a CME hits Earth? 1. Solar wind is deflected around Earth 2. Deflected solar wind drags Earth s magnetic field with it 3. Magnetic field lines reconnect and accelerate particles 4. Accelerated particles follow field lines to Earth Aurora is produced when particles hit Earth s atmosphere 2. Deflected solar wind drags Earth s magnetic field with it 4. Accelerated particles follow field lines to Earth 1. Solar wind is deflected around Earth Aurora Inner Belt Outer Radiation Belt Source: Viereck, NOAA 3. Magnetic field lines reconnect and accelerate particles
Space Weather system Sunspot CMEs Solar wind Geomagnetic storm Ionosphere Solar flares Sun Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnetosphere Geospace Earth Heliosphere Photo courtesy of Prof Yohsuke Kamide 19
Ionosphere Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite Formed when extreme ultraviolet light from the sun hits Earth s Atmosphere Strongly affected by changes in the magnetosphere Critical in the reflection and transmission of radio waves The particles collide with the atmosphere and produce the Aurora and currents in the ionosphere As geomagnetic activity increases, the aurora gets brighter, more active, and moves away from the polar regions. Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected Source: Viereck, NOAA
Other Space Weather Terms Solar Flare: An eruption on the sun that emits light (UV and x-rays) and often particles (electrons and protons). CME (Coronal Mass Ejection): A disturbance in the solar wind caused by an eruption on the sun. Solar Wind: The outward flow of electrons, protons, and magnetic field from the sun. Energetic Particles: electrons and protons that have been accelerated to high speeds. Geomagnetic Storm: The disturbance in the near-earth particles and magnetic fields that can upset technological systems and creates aurora. Radiation Storm: A large flux of solar energetic protons as measured near Earth. Radio Blackout: An enhancement in the lower ionosphere as a result of large x-ray flares. Source: Viereck, NOAA
At T = 0, A Flare and CME Erupts on the Sun Space Weather Storms Timing and Consequences 8 Minutes later: First blast of EUV and X- Ray light increases the ionospheric density Radio transmissions are lost 30 min. to 24 hrs. later: Energetic Particles Arrive Astronauts are at risk Satellites are at risk High altitude aircraft crew are at risk 1 to 4 Days Later: CME Arrives and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected Source: Viereck, NOAA NASA SOHO Satellite
Three Types of Space Weather Storms 1.Radio Blackouts Solar Flares send out x-rays Arrive at Earth in 8 minutes Modify the ionosphere Disrupt HF radio communication Impacts: Airline communication HF radio operators DoD Communications Satellite Communications 2.Radiation Storms Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Energetic Particles Arrive at Earth in 15 minutes to 24 hours Modify the high latitude ionosphere Disrupt HF radio communication Impacts: Airline communication HF radio operators DoD Communications Ionizing radiation penetrates into the atmosphere Impacts: Astronauts (radiation) Satellite failures 3.Geomagnetic Storms Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Magnetic Clouds Arrive at Earth in 1-4 days Accelerate particles within the magnetosphere and into the ionosphere Impacts: HF radio communication Radio Navigation (GPS) Electric Power Grids Increased Satellite Drag Aurora Source: Viereck, NOAA
Geomagnetic Storm Effects March 1989 Hydro Quebec Loses Electric Power for 9 Hours Electric Power Transformer Transformer Damage Source: AGU
What Controls the Size a Space Weather Storm? The Size of Flare or CME Big solar events tend to make big storms The Location of the flare site on the SUN If it is directed at Earth, it is more likely to make a storm If it toward the west side of the sun, the particles will arrive sooner The Direction of the Magnetic Field in the CME If the interplanetary magnetic field is southward, then there will likely be a big storm Source: Viereck, NOAA
Space Weather Scales Three Categories Geomagnetic Storms (CMEs) Solar Radiation Storms (Particle Events) Radio Blackouts (Solar Flares) Source: Viereck, NOAA Combs Rabin
Events Per Month Events Per Month Events Per Month How Often Do Space Weather Storms Occur? Solar Cycle is about 11 Years Radiation Storms 1-4 per month at max Geomagnetic Storms 3-5 per month at max Radio Blackouts 50-100 per month at max Sunspot Number 11-year cycle 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Source: Viereck, NOAA
Primary Space Weather Satellites for SEC (SWPC) Events are observed on and near the sun No measurements until the Particles or CMEs are 99% of the way to Earth This provides only 30 minutes lead time for CMEs and no lead time for other events NASA STEREO (Ahead) STEREO CME Direction and Shape Solar wind composition, speed, and direction Magnetic field strength and direction NASA STEREO (Behind) ACE Solar wind composition, speed, and direction Magnetic field strength and direction SOHO Solar EUV Images Solar Corona (CMEs) NASA ACE NASA SOHO POES High Energy Particles Total Energy Deposition Solar UV Flux NOAA GOES GOES Energetic Particles Magnetic Field Solar X-ray Flux Solar X-Ray Images NOAA POES Source: Viereck, NOAA
Summary Space Weather Storms come in three main categories Each category originates from different physical processes Each category arrives at a different speed Each category affects different users and technologies Space Weather Event Radio Blackouts Bursts of X-ray and EUV radiation Radiation Storms Energetic Particles (electrons and protons) Geomagnetic Storms When the CME reaches Earth Arrival 8 minutes 15 min. to 24 hrs. 1 to 4 days Time Systems Radio Comm. Satellites Power Companies Affected Airlines Astronauts Radio Comm. Radio Comm. Navigation (GPS) Satellite Drag Source: Viereck, NOAA
Space weather-induced effects on Earth-orbiting spacecraft. Such effects include single-event upsets (SEUs) due to energetic ions, deep-dielectric charging due to relativistic electrons, and surface charging due to moderate-energy electrons. Courtesy of the Aerospace Corporation. Published in: Daniel N. Baker; Published in: Louis J. Lanzerotti; American Journal of Physics 2016, 84, 166-180. DOI: 10.1119/1.4938403 Copyright 2016 Author(s)
The connected Sun-Earth system, including key regions and space weather drivers. (NASA diagram annotated by the authors.) Published in: Daniel N. Baker; Published in: Louis J. Lanzerotti; American Journal of Physics 2016, 84, 166-180. DOI: 10.1119/1.4938403 Copyright 2016 Author(s)
Signal Intensity Space Weather: A Pervasive Threat Cause Effects ACTUAL PREDICTED Time (min) Single event effects Spacecraft charging Link scintillation Satellite drag AFRL, 2007 72-120 hour prediction of SW needed to be useful Satellite Operation and Earth Observation
Solar Wind Parameters Earth s Coupling SW Input energy High Speed Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ɛ Earth Earth Magnetopause Magnetotail SW Dynamic Pressure, Pdyn Magnetosheath Artistic rendition of Earth s magnetopause 33
Solar Wind Parameters Earth s Coupling High Speed Solar Wind Magnetosphere SW Input energy Ɛ Earth Earth Magnetopause Magnetotail SW Dynamic Pressure, Pdyn Magnetosheath SW Pdyn = 1.6726 * exp-6 * N * Vsw 2 [npa] Where: N = Proton density and Vsw = Solar wind speed Can be extracted directly from OMNI database Artistic rendition of Earth s magnetopause 34
Solar Wind Parameters Earth s Coupling SW Input energy High Speed Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ɛ Magnetopause SW Dynamic Pressure, Pdyn Earth Earth Magnetotail Magnetosheath SW input energy (ε) = Vsw * B 2 * F(θ) * lo 2 [Erg/s] [Akasofu, 1981] Where: Vsw = SW speed, B = IMF magnetic field, F(θ) = function of the angle θ (By/Bz), and lo = 7Re Artistic rendition of Earth s magnetopause 35
Monitoring, forecasting and reporting the Space Weather through Space Weather Report