Public Transportation Infrastructure Study (PTIS) - 2 nd Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Presentation to: Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Presented by: and Team July 8th, 2009
Public Transportation Infrastructure Study (PTIS) 2 nd Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Current Conditions and Trend Analysis (Fregonese Associates) Key findings on current conditions and trend analysis Corridor workshop selection exercise
Existing Conditions Analysis Mapping Database GIS Scenario Planning The Virtual Present The Virtual Future Corridor Planning Small area concept maps Visual examples for communicating ideas Developing prototypes for countywide scenarios Alternative Scenarios
Aerial Photography
City Boundary
Sphere of Influence
Transportation Network
Protected land Environmental Constraints: Open Water Riparian (50 ft buffer around streams and open water) Wetlands and 50ft wetland buffer 100-year floodplain (50% of land can be developed) Steep Slopes (25% and more) In Addition: Federal land
Open Water
Riparian
Wetlands
100 Year Floodplain
Steep Slopes (25% and greater)
Environmental Constraints
Federal Land
Environmental Constraints and Federal Land
Composite Constraints
Land Use Fresno County covers an area of over 6,000 square miles Combination of two sources City of Fresno County of Fresno Newer land use from City of Fresno
Land Use County of Fresno City of Fresno
Land Use
Land Use Vacant Land Analysis City of Fresno land use assumed to be vacant: Vacant parcels Rural residential part vacant (according to City data) Open space/ag RR (can be rural residential or railroad) with parcels that are equal or larger than 1 acre. Assuming that each parcel has one house, rural parcels that have housing on an acre lot or greater are considered vacant Vacant areas of land use categories that are partial vacant were digitized to include vacant parts (new data layer created by FAI) County of Fresno land use assumed to be vacant: Agriculture Vacant Single Family on 10 acres per unit or more County vacant land masked to extent of City of Fresno land use (City data overrode County) 38% of Fresno County is vacant and potentially available for new development (1.4 Mil. Acres) (includes farmland)
Vacant Land Partial Vacant Land use categories from City of Fresno include partial vacant land use Heavy industrial/part vacant Light industrial/part vacant
Vacant Land Rural Residential Issue City of Fresno Issues with capacity: Parcels identified as RR have a capacity of 3,588 units 1,360 HU for parcels between 1 and 2 acres 2,228 HU for parcels more than 2 acres Large Lot Living outside of the City Large Lot Living within the City
Vacant Land Rural Residential Issue Issues with virtual present: Parcels identified as vacant have no housing allocated No housing on rural lands Rural Residential assumed to be vacant
Vacant Land Rural Residential Issue County of Fresno Single Family on 10 acres or more assumed vacant Assumes low density rural if developed further Rural Lands In the mountains
Vacant Land Public Land Public land removed but can have growth potential i.e. California State University is expected to grow Housing Growth University Employment Growth
Vacant Land
Buildable Land Vacant land minus constrained land: Vacant mask includes all environmental constraints and federal land Vacant land in floodplains can be developed to up to 50% Vacant land within floodplains All constraints taken out
Composite Buildable Land
Buildable Land Polygrid
Capacity Analysis The capacity analysis looks at 4 different files: Zoning files from: City of Clovis (zoning.shp) City of Fresno (zoning.shp) County of Fresno (genplan-rev2.shp) General Plan from: County of Fresno (genplan_rev2.shp) For smaller cities based on LUname attribute For Fresno city zoning code (S-L and SPLIT) on PTIS attribute Capacity is assumed to be on vacant land only Accounting for underbuilt 25% for residential zoning types 60% for office and retail zoning types 90% for industrial zoning types
Zoning and General Plan Files are layered: City of Fresno - Zoning County of Fresno - General Plan (PTIS) City of Clovis Zoning County of Fresno - General Plan County of Fresno - Zoning
Zoning and General Plan Multiple components No Gis layer available for smaller towns Using County s general plan No zoning code designation Using County s general plan (PTIS)
Capacity Combined Files
Capacity On Vacant Land Floodplains Buildable Land
Capacity On Vacant Land
Capacity Analysis Results The capacity analysis results: About 112,000 new units The unincorporated areas get majority of housing Only 26,000 units are multi-family About 33,000 units within exiting city boundaries More than 480,000 new jobs County and City of Fresno can accommodate majority of jobs Industrial capacity is highest More capacity for retail jobs than office jobs On a side note: Over 45,000 units of rural/farm housing possible
Capacity Housing
Capacity Employment
Capacity Housing Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Capacity Employment Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Capacity Housing
Forecast Housing
Capacity vs. Forecast
Virtual Present Base year is 2003 Two sources for land use City of Fresno elu.shp County of Fresno land_use.shp Two sources for housing 2000 census blocks TAZ data One source for employment: TAZ data 2003 data information is calculated to fit the geography of the scenario layer (polygrid)
Virtual Present Polygrid The polygrid is a GIS shape file used for scenario building The polygrid has 2 resolutions: Within urban areas the resolution is 5.29 acres Rural areas have a resolution of 21.2 acres Each polygrid cell has a value for: Individual ID (gridcode) Amount of buildable land in acres Names of cities Names of sphere of influences Employment Centers TAZ ID Development type Capacity (units and jobs) Base year (units and jobs) Scenario (units and jobs)
Virtual Present Polygrid
Virtual Present Residential Land Use City of Fresno land use Residential land use types: Residential (low, medium, high, medium low, medium high) Mobile home park Includes partial vacant land use category that is residential County of Fresno land use Residential land use types: Residential (single family, multi family) Land use categories with at least one residential unit
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Residential land use Convert to a raster Census blocks Convert to raster masked/clipped to residential land Calculate amount of housing per raster cell Convert to a floating point grid Summarize on polygrid Adjust 2000 census number by 2003 TAZ numbers Summarize 2000 census number by TAZ Adjust/multiply 2000 numbers to reflect 2003 numbers TAZs with no housing in 2000 have 2003 number evenly dispersed throughout TAZ
Virtual Present Residential Land City of Fresno County of Fresno City of Fresno -part vacant
Virtual Present Residential Land
Virtual Present Residential Land Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Census blocks masked to residential land: Gives true location of residential land Housing located on residential land only 2000 Census Residential raster Census blocks on residential land
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Housing value: Calculate number of housing units per raster cell Census raster Calculated cell value
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Housing value by polygrid cell: Summarize housing units raster cells by polygrid Add results to polygrid Housing cells summarized by polygrid Raster and polygrid
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Housing quantity by polygrid cell: Adjust housing numbers to reflect TAZ 2003 data Adjustment only on polygrid cells that intersect with residential land use Housing 2000 adjusted by TAZ quantity Census 2000 by polygrid
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Unassigned housing : Comparing the adjusted 2003 housing numbers to the actual TAZ numbers, it was obvious that some TAZ had no housing assigned TAZ with housing but no residential acres have housing located equally on each polygrid cell within the assigned TAZ
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Issues Census miscounts: 68 units assigned to a street island Mobile home park count puts all units into front office census block Mobile Home Park Street
Virtual Present Housing Analysis Issues TAZ vs polygrid: Data is calculated on a 900 sqft raster cell Data is assigned to a 5 or 21 acres polygrid cell Polygrid cell has fixed value for taz TAZ 2003 numbers vary from Census 2000 Allocated census housing is 322, TAZ itself assigns no housing
Virtual Present 2003 Housing
Virtual Present 2003 Housing Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Virtual Present Employment Land Use City of Fresno land use Employment land use types: Office types Commercial Industrial Public facilities (schools, airport, etc.) County of Fresno land use Urbanized areas: Attribute employment = Y Excluding agricultural and vacant land use (to avoid thinning of jobs on agricultural land for urban areas) Includes land use identified as unclassified and PTIS_Class = schools Rural areas: Employment number equally dispersed throughout taz
Virtual Present Employment Analysis Employment land use Convert to a raster Avoiding high counts of agricultural employment within cities: Calculating employment density based on employment land within cities (as identified by TAZ coverage) Convert TAZ to raster masked/clipped to employment land Calculate amount of jobs per raster cell Convert to a floating point grid Summarize on polygrid Calculating employment density throughout rural TAZs equally
Virtual Present Employment Land City of Fresno County of Fresno City of Fresno -part vacant
Virtual Present Employment Land Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Virtual Present Employment Analysis TAZ TAZs masked to employment land: Gives true location of employment land TAZs for cities only Employment raster TAZ on employment land
Virtual Present Employment Analysis Employment value: Calculate number of jobs per raster cell TAZ raster Calculated cell value
Virtual Present Employment Analysis Unassigned jobs : Employment land was identified for TAZs within cities only TAZs outside of cities have jobs located equally on each polygrid cell within the assigned TAZ
Virtual Present Employment Analysis Issues TAZ vs polygrid: Data is calculated on a 900 sqft raster cell Data is assigned to a 5 or 21 acres polygrid cell Polygrid cell has fixed value for taz TAZ and polygrid overlap (jobs in TAZ 603 are not assigned to actual location, polygrid cells fall within TAZ 606) TAZs and Employment Land TAZs and Employment Cell
2003 Jobs by TAZ
2035 Jobs by TAZ
Job Gain by TAZ
Virtual Present 2003 Employment
Virtual Future Delta Employment
Virtual Future 2035 Employment
2003 Jobs by TAZ Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
2035 Jobs by TAZ Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Job Gain by TAZ Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Selma Parlier Reedley Orange Cove Kingsburg
Virtual Present 2003 Employment Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Parlier Orange Cove Selma Reedley Kingsburg
Virtual Future Delta Employment Clovis Fresno Sanger Fowler Parlier Orange Cove Selma Reedley Kingsburg