S&P 00 Vlut Th S&P 00 rltvly v bd rtg rg. m Outlk Dmbr 2016 Th yl h rdud muh lwr m grwth. Th vtmt drbd hr r: NOT FDIC INSUD NOT BANK GUAANTD MAY LOS VALU NOT A DPOSIT NOT INSUD BY ANY FDAL O STAT GOVNMNT AGNCY 1 Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt 2 Mur f Umlymt Th lbr mrkt hv mrvd, but g f gft lbr tr rm lvtd. Iflt A lbr mrkt tght, rv flt rg ftr. Dt Currt Lvl Umlymt t Umlyd 27 Wk r Lgr % f th Umlyd CPI = +1.6% CPI Srv Id = +2.9% Wrkg Prt Tm fr m CPI Cmmdty Id = -0.6% Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Th vry Cmrd t Prvu Grwth vr th rvry h b mrkdly lwr th t yl. Brd my Avrg f th Lt S m +.0% r yr +2.1% r yr Currt m Th yl h rdud muh lwr m grwth. 6 1
. 12/16/2016 Pttl m Grwth Ar w l t th lmt fr fltry grwth. Pttl GDP Grwth = Prdutvty + Lbr Fr Grwth = 1.2% Pttl m Grwth Lbr fr rtt h lugd vr th ur f th yl. Lbr fr rtt h drd hrly. Prdutvty Grwth = 0.6% Lbr Fr Grwth = 0.7% Avrg f th Lt S m Currt m Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Dmgrh: Prvdg fr Agg Pult Th umbr f l 6 d ldr rltv t th 2 t 6 wll r drmtlly mg yr. Yrly Dt 12/1/1900-12/1/200 U.S. Pult By Ag ( % f Ttl Pult) rh & Dvlmt d Prdutvty Th rd lvl f &D dg hful g f mrvd rdutvty. 2 1 0 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 29 28 27 26 2 2 2 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 1 1 1 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Ag 2-6 12/1/200 = 7.7% ( ) Sur: U.S. Cu Buru Ag 2 t 6 Ag 0-2 12/1/200 = 2.1% ( ) Ag 6 d ldr.0 : 1 2-6 / 6+ 2010 Ag 6+ 12/1/200 = 20.2% ( ) 2. : 1 2-6 / 6+ 200 2 1 0 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 9 8 7 6 2 1 0 29 28 27 26 2 2 2 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 1 1 1 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 g &D dg ffr h fr mrvg rdutvty. (98) 1900 190 1910 191 1920 192 190 19 190 19 190 19 1960 196 1970 197 1980 198 1990 199 2000 200 2010 201 2020 202 200 20 200 20 200 Cyrght 2012 Nd Dv rh, I. Furthr dtrbut rhbtd wthut rr rm. All ght rvd. S ND Dlmr t www.dr.m/yrght.html. Fr dt vdr dlmr rfr t www.dr.m/vdrf/ 9 Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Cty Utlzt Lw ty utlzt rt hv md my dutr tly mttv. Bu Str U.S. ty utlzt h rdd gftly vr th lt 0 yr. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 11 12 2
Idutrl Prdut Th dwzg f rgy h tk tll dutrl rdut. Bu Sl d Pyrll Grwth Lw ty utlzt rt hv md bu rlutt t d. Dwzg f th rgy Str Avrg f th Lt S m Currt m Wkr yrll grwth Wk d dlg bu l grwth 1 ISM Mufturg Id Mufturg trgth uully wk m yl g. Lbr Ct ltv t Prft Prft wr rtrd ftr 2001 by lwrg lbr t. ISM Mufturg Id Shdd r hw Ntl Buru f m rh r Ut Lbr Ct Ut lbr t hv dld gftly 2001 Bgg t r Ut Nlbr Ct l Hurly Cmt mu Nfrm Prdutvty Hurly mt h trtd rg ftr th rdutvty Ut Prft rft mrvd Cmt ltv t Prdutvty Wg hk ut rur rft wh thy uttr rdutvty g. Wg G vru th S&P 00 Prft Mrg Mrg r t hv kd d r udr rur frm rg wg g. Nfrm rdutvty l Hurly Cmt Prft Mrg Mrg rdg. Alrtg wg. l Hurly Cmt mu Nfrm Prdutvty Hurly mt h trtd rg ftr th rdutvty Wg Grwth 18
Cumr Sdg & Im Grwth Iflt-djutd Md Fmly Im Aftr flt, fmly m hv dld vr th lt 1 yr. Pkd 1999 19 20 Im d Sdg Grwth Im d dg grwth lw by htrl tdrd but h lrtd rtly. Cmt f Prl Im mly Cmt h rdd rtg f Prl Im. Prl Im +.2% y/y mly Cmt Aftr-t Im +.% y/y Prrtr Im mly Cmt h dld gftly rtg f Prl Im tl Im Cumt +.6% y/y t At Nt Trfr t 1980 21 Hlth Cr Sdg d Prl Cumt g hlth r t hv utd fr mt f th r rl umt. A hr f m, umt h rd 6.% 1980. U 6.% 80% rt 7.% luv f hlth r, hwvr, dg h b flt. Flt 66% 66% 1980 200 2 2
rt ltv t Pt vr Slwg wrld grwth d th rg vlu f th dllr h rdd U.S. rt. Glbl Mufturg Id v Prdut Th rg Glbl Mufturg Id uggt glbl rdut wll mrv. rt grwth h lwd gftly vr th lt fv yr. Currt m Th rg vlu f th dllr rdud rt l v mr. Avrg f th Lt S Bu Glbl Purhg Mgr Id (mvd hd tw mth) Idutrl Prdut Th Purhg Mgr Id hw mrvd utlk fr th glbl my 2 CBO Prjt fr th Fdrl Budgt Th dmgrh trd uggt lrgr dft r mg. Gvrmt Sdg Th rg d fr gvrmt brrwg wll r th brrwg t f vtmt rqurd t mlmt futur rdutvty mrvmt. 27 Mrkt Sulr Bull d Br Mrkt Durg Sulr bull yl v th hrtr-trm dl (br mrkt) r muh mldr. Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull qut Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Bd Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Cmmdt Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull 29 0
Dlur Ky Prvt Bk rt f KyBk Ntl At. Trut rv rvdd by KyBk Ntl At. Ivtmt r: NOT FDIC INSUD NOT BANK GUAANTD MAY LOS VALU NOT A DPOSIT NOT INSUD BY ANY FDAL O STAT GOVNMNT AGNCY 1 6