Integrating Climate Adaptation in Hawaii Disaster Risk Management Building Resilient Communities HCPO/HIGICC 2009 Conference September 23-25 Sheraton Waikiki
Introduction What are weather/climate-related events that an emergency manager in the Hawaiian Islands currently responds to? What are the event drivers?; and How might this change in a changing climate and what would be the impact?
Events Hurricanes; Flash-flooding; Strong Winds; Ocean Flooding and Erosion; Drought-related Fires
Drivers Water Level Global and Local Sea Level ENSO Anticyclonic Eddies Tides Storm Surge decreasing space and time scales Extreme Waves and Runup
Historical Patterns and Trends NOAA COOPS Sea Levels Online http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml Hilo ~0.1 cm/yr Kapoho ~ 0.8 to 1.7 cm/yr From 2003 to 2006 - Source Brooks et.al, 2006
Historical Patterns and Trends NOAA COOPS Sea Levels Online http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml Multivariate ENSO Index
Historical Patterns and Trends University of Hawaii Sea Level Center for NOAA IDEA Center
Historical Patterns and Trends Oregon State University for NOAA IDEA Center
Projected Patterns and Trends Oregon State University for NOAA IDEA Center
Projected Patterns and Trends Global Sea Level Rise IPCC 2007 By the end of the 21st century estimates range from an increase of 0.2 to 0.6 meters. With linear increases due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003 the estimates would increase to 0.3 to 0.8 meters. Range of (stable) sea level during development of modern society Ice sheet uncertainty Principally ocean warming and melting glaciers Sea level is currently tracking near the upper 20 th C rise an order of limit of these projections magnitude larger than previous thousand years Independent Analyses An increase on the order of 0.3 to 0.6 meters by 2050 is probably a reasonable estimate. An increase on the order of 1 to 2 meters, and as much as 5m by the end of the 21st century is not inconceivable! (e.g., Rhamstorf, 2007 and the US Climate Change Science Program, 2008) In situ data Satellite data Adapted from WCRP-IOC Sea Level Group
Projected Patterns and Trends Local Sea Level Rise 1 to 2 feet of sea lever rise over the next 30 to 40 years may not appear to be too big a deal. What it means is that water level currently observed only at high tide will be what occurs at midtide, and extreme water levels now observed only once every twenty years or so will then occur about twenty-plus times a year in conjunction with spring and neap tides. Accompanying impacts, while not catastrophic, will be chronic. ELEVATIONS ON STATION DATUM National Ocean Service (NOAA) Station: 1612340 T.M.: 0 W Name: HONOLULU, HONOLULU HARBOR, OAHU ISLAND, HI Units: Feet Datum Value Description --------- -------- -------------------------------------- Maximum 2.66 Highest Water Level on Station Datum MHHW 1.10 Mean Higher-High Water MHW 0.50 Mean High Water MSL 0.00 Mean Sea Level MLW -0.68 Mean Low Water MLLW -0.85 Mean Lower-Low Water Number of Extreme Sea Level Days each Year at Honolulu (Firing and Merrifield, 2004).
Conclusions Many of the events that emergency managers in the Hawaiian Islands currently respond to are weather/climate-related. Such events are commonly associated with well understood patterns and trends. Understanding these patterns and trends, and how they may be expected change in a changing climate will serve as a guide for how to include considerations into disaster risk management. If we wait until we can be certain about what to expect we may find ourselves like the frog in the pot
Mahalo! john.marra@noaa.gov East-West Center John A. Burns Hall (JAB4092) 1601 East-West Road Honolulu, HI 96848 808.944.7453 global science solutions NESDIS/NCDC IDEA Center
Targeted Information Products Historical Storm Event Anatomies Hurricane Iniki central North Pacific Typhoon Chata`an western North Pacific Super Typhoon Pongsona western North Pacific Cyclone Heta central South Pacific Cyclones Meena, Nancy, Olaf, and Percy central South Pacific Extra-Tropical Cyclones? northern North Pacific Extreme Tides, High Summer Surf, Winter Waves central North Pacific These event anatomies include a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular extreme event as well as its historic context climatologically. The intent is to convey the impacts associated with extreme events and the causes of them in way that enable users to easily understand them. The event anatomies are also intended to familiarize users with in-situ and remotely sensed products typically employed to track and forecast weather and climate. The event anatomies employ an advanced portlet-based IT architecture as a means to deliver text and graphics, as well as annotated or animated visualizations. http://www.pricip.org/ea-portal/