Stalagmite records of abrupt climate change in the tropical Pacific

Similar documents
Speleothem records of precipitation in the West Pacific Warm Pool from the LGM to present

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and global warming: new data from old corals

AMOC Impacts on Climate

The Tswaing Impact Crater, South Africa: derivation of a long terrestrial rainfall record for the southern mid-latitudes

Fossil coral snapshots of ENSO and tropical Pacific climate over the late Holocene

Speleothems and Climate Models

Rapid Climate Change: Heinrich/Bolling- Allerod Events and the Thermohaline Circulation. By: Andy Lesage April 13, 2010 Atmos.

Rapid climate change in ice cores

Today s Climate in Perspective: Hendrick Avercamp ( ) ~1608; Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam

Climate of the Past. A. Govin et al.

We re living in the Ice Age!

8. Climate changes Short-term regional variations

Lecture 28: Observed Climate Variability and Change

TROPICAL-EXTRATROPICAL INTERACTIONS

Recent Results with the GFDL High- Resolution Coupled Modeling Systems

The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO

An integrated speleothem proxy and climate modeling study of the last deglacial climate in the Pacific Northwest

A coral-based picture of ENSO from the mid- Holocene tropical Pacific. Helen McGregor, University of Wollongong (LDEO Tharp Scholar)

SE Atlantic SST variability and southern African climate

Contribution of vegetation changes to dust decadal variability and its impact on tropical rainfall asymmetry

6. What has been the most effective erosive agent in the climate system? a. Water b. Ice c. Wind

An integrated speleothem proxy and climate modeling study of the last deglacial climate in the Pacific Northwest

What We ve Learned from the AMOC Modeling Efforts about AMOC Processes and its Role in Weather and Climate

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013

Lessons learned from oxygen isotopes in modern precipitation applied to interpretation of speleothem records of paleoclimate from eastern Asia

Ocean & climate: an introduction and paleoceanographic perspective

Judson W. Partin EDUCATION

Understanding past climate change

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)

Chp Spectral analysis a. Requires that the climate record must be at least 4 times longer than the cycled analyzed

What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

/ Past and Present Climate

ATOC OUR CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013

Deep Ocean Circulation & implications for Earth s climate

ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO and

WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA

Interhemispheric climate connections: What can the atmosphere do?

Lecture 0 A very brief introduction

A multi-proxy study of planktonic foraminifera to identify past millennialscale. climate variability in the East Asian Monsoon and the Western Pacific

Paleoclimatology ATMS/ESS/OCEAN 589. Abrupt Climate Change During the Last Glacial Period

Patterns and impacts of ocean warming and heat uptake

Project Retrograde imagine Earth rotated in the opposite direction

Climate change and variability -

Please be ready for today by:

Introduction to Quaternary Geology (MA-Modul 3223) Prof. C. Breitkreuz, SS2012, TU Freiberg

Name Date Class. growth rings of trees, fossilized pollen, and ocean. in the northern hemisphere.

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017

IMPLICATIONS OF THE VAST PLIOCENE WARMPOOL. Chris Brierley and Alexey Fedorov

Two aspects of moisture origin relevant to analysis of isotope modeling

Earth s Climate Patterns

1.Decadal prediction ( ) 2. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond)

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012

Welcome to ATMS 111 Global Warming.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013

The global response to Younger Dryas boundary conditions in an AGCM simulation

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012

KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT

El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a. TOPEX/Jason Observations

Chapter 15 Millennial Oscillations in Climate

Sensitivity of summer precipitation to tropical sea surface temperatures over East Asia in the GRIMs GMP

Weather & Ocean Currents

How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK

Name: Date: Hour: Comparing the Effects of El Nino & La Nina on the Midwest (E4.2c)

TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND GLACIATION. Chris Brierley & Alexey Fedorov

A community-sourced global database of paleo-water isotopes from the past two millennia

The Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre: Beijing, China

MC-KPP: Efficient, flexible and accurate air-sea coupling

Out of the Ice Age: How Indonesian Stalagmites Trace Changes in the Australasian Monsoon

East-west SST contrast over the tropical oceans and the post El Niño western North Pacific summer monsoon

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?

Similarities and differences in the past, presen and future monsoon

Interannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months

The Earth s Oceans/Climate What We Don t Know. February 20, 2016 Bernie McCune

Centennial-scale Climate Change from Decadally-paced Explosive Volcanism

The Planetary Circulation System

Historical Changes in Climate

Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10

A GCM Reconstruction of the Last Glacial Inception

MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015

An Interconnected Planet

Ruddiman CHAPTER 13. Earth during the LGM ca. 20 ka BP

Has solar forcing been an important influence on climate in the late Holocene?

Match (one-to-one) the following (1 5) from the list (A E) below.

The Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA

Gulf Stream Temperature, Salinity, and Transport during the Last Millennium

The ocean s overall role in climate

Comparison of Convection Characteristics at the Tropical Western Pacific Darwin Site Between Observation and Global Climate Models Simulations

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Early warning of climate tipping points Tim Lenton

Lecture 21: Glaciers and Paleoclimate Read: Chapter 15 Homework due Thursday Nov. 12. What we ll learn today:! Learning Objectives (LO)

How is abrupt (paleo) climate change transmitted to the mid latitude Southern Hemisphere? Connecting the tropics to polar regions

Chapter outline. Reference 12/13/2016

Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?

Selected Presentation from the INSTAAR Monday Noon Seminar Series.

Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

Supplementary Figure 1 Trends of annual mean maximum ocean mixed layer depth. Trends from uninitialized simulations (a) and assimilation simulation

High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes

Transcription:

Stalagmite records of abrupt climate change in the tropical Pacific Kim Cobb Georgia Inst. of Technology Jud Partin UT-Austin Jess Adkins California Inst. of Technology Brian Clark Gunung Mulu National Park Thanks to: Sarawak Forestry Dept. Mulu National Park staff NSF Gary Comer Foundation

West Pacific Warm Pool: the global heat engine Xie and Arkin, 1997!intense convection driven by Walker and Hadley circulations!significant seasonal (monsoon) and interannual (ENSO) variability!evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns under changing boundary conditions??

Climate since the LGM: A tale of two ice cores What was the sequence of events during the last deglaciation? How are the two hemispheres linked climatically? What caused the abrupt climate change events? How was the tropical Pacific involved? Rosenthal et al., 2003

Chinese Stalagmite Wang et al., 2001 1) East Asian monsoon tracks Greenland abrupt climate change events. 2) Large hydrological anomaly during Heinrich 1 event (16ka). 3) Monsoon variability tied to insolation.

Tropical Pacific Marine Sediment Cores!early warming reminiscent of Antarctica!!coarse resolution and poor dating make abrupt climate changes difficult to detect!hint of Younger Dryas in hydrology, but not temperature!heinrich 1 strong cooling in eastern Pacific (Kienast et al., 2006) Rosenthal et al., 2003

How has Warm Pool climate evolved since the Last Glacial Maximum? Stalagmites as climate archives: absolutely-dated (±1%) with U/Th high-resolution (sub-decadal sampling) records of terrestrial precipitation

Research goal: resolve abrupt climate changes in Warm Pool precipitation since the Last Glacial Maximum Approach: 1)! identify accessible site and conduct fieldwork 2)! date stalagmites with U/Th, target time intervals of interest 3)! calibrate paleo-precip proxy (oxygen isotopes,! 18 O) w/ on-site monitoring program 4)! perform multiple reconstructions (reproducibility) 5)! compare with other paleo-records, forcing histories to build mechanistic insights

Rainfall at Gunung Mulu National Park, Malaysian Borneo!seasonal variability low, always under ITCZ!intraseasonal variations important Cobb et al., 2007

!interannual variability large (±50% for DJF)!very sensitive to ENSO variability Dai and Wigley, 2000

Rainfall and! 18 O of rainfall: the tropical amount effect Jayapura, Indonesia!empirical negative correlation between rainfall and the! 18 O of rainfall (Dansgaard, 1964; Rozanski, 1993) nearest long-term rainfall! 18 O measurements Marine Terrestrial

On-site monitoring program: climate controls on local rainfall! 18 O!strong seasonal cycle in rainfall! 18 O (despite lack of rainfall seasonality)!seasonally-varying moisture trajectories fractionate vapor! 18 O!hint of ENSO-related response during 2005/06 La Niña event (more rain=lighter! 18 O)!drip! 18 O is muted version of rainfall! 18 O Cobb et al., 2007

Speleothem Formation 1. rain 2. soil = high pco 2!assumption is that rainfall! 18 O is recorded in stalagmite! 18 O!complex flow regimes, kinetic fractionation can obscure climate-related signals 3. dissolve CaCO 3 4. degas CO 2!strategy: search for common signals observed in multiple stalagmite! 18 O records 5. precipitate CaCO 3

Fieldtrips 2003, 2005, 2008 Rainwater and dripwater monitoring program

Age Distribution and Lengths of Borneo Speleothems Growth rates (1-100!m/yr) easily allow for decadal to centennial resolution. Low U (0.1-1ppm), low 234U (-100 ) and high 232Th (1ppb) make U/Th dating challenging. Use MC-ICPMS. Many stals cover desired interval (LGM to present); allow for REPRODUCIBLITY

BA04 492mm SCH02 296mm SSC01 483mm

Excellent reproducibility of stalagmite! 18 O records back to 27kbyp!climatic interpretation supported WETTER!many dates needed; numerous hiatuses uncovered!slow-growing portions discounted for climate interpretation due to possible unresolved hiatuses DRIER Partin et al., 2007

WPWP rainfall! 18 O during the LGM Observed: -1.3 shift in stalagmite! 18 O from LGM to present Contributions: ice volume! 18 O = -1.0 2-3.5 C warming = -0.4 to -0.7 local seawater! 18 O =? Oppo et al., 2003 KEY: effect of Sunda Shelf on ocean-atmosphere system unconstrained

Abrupt climate change events during the deglaciation GREENLAND!largest excursion a drying event that started ~20kypb and terminated ~16kybp (Heinrich 1 event)!later deglacial records look like Antarctica (northern-most signal of Antarctic Cold Reversal?; no Younger Dryas) CHINA BORNEO ANTARCTICA WARM POOL INSOLATION Partin et al., 2007

What s so special about H1? Observed shut-down of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (McManus et al., 2004) which pushes ITCZs southward and decreases West Pacific Warm Pool precip by changing Walker circulation (Zhang and Delworth, 2005)

Tropical Pacific was involved in H1: trigger or amplifier, or both? BORNEO North Atlantic H1: begins 17kybp ends 14.7 kybp!observed drying in Borneo precedes NA Heinrich expression, MOC shutdown *and* it recovers before the NA recovers from H1!other tropical Pacific records show similar results, but are less well-dated Kienast et al., 2006!did the tropical Pacific force a shutdown of the MOC, and dictate its recovery?

WPWP convection sensitive to spring/fall precessional insolation!china convection linked to JJA (Dykoski et al., 2005)!Brazil convection linked to DJF (Cruz et al., 2005)!if north-to-south march of ITCZ over Holocene, then perhaps a spring/fall sensitivity makes sense?!or does the zonal structure of tropical Pacific convection respond to insolation forcing (Clement et al., 1999)

Global methane budget also linked to spring/fall insolation!atmospheric methane shows mid-holocene low!modern ENSO does perturb global methane budget (Dlugokencky et al., 2001)!need AGCM coupled to global methane model to investigate how changes in precip patterns affect methane budget Chappellaz et al., 1997; Koutavas et al., 2002

Conclusions Malaysian stalagmites provide reproducible! 18 O signals, favoring a climatic interpretation. WPWP convection sensitive to some, but not all, abrupt climate change events. Malaysia hydrology changes lead the North Atlantic into and out of the Heinrich 1 abrupt climate change event driver? Holocene trends driven by spring/fall insolation, match CH 4 records. Future Work Monthly stalagmite! 18 O data for last millennia (D. Lund) New proxies in stalagmites (organic biomarkers, charcoal layers?) Coarse-resolution for last million years (N. Meckler)