Project for Formulation of Comprehensive Development Master Plan in the Mombasa Gate City in Republic of Kenya WG: Land Use (Development Vision, Structure Plan) January 18, 2016 JICA Expert Team
Working Group Topic Recapture of previous activities Finalization of Development Vision How to brush up Proposal of Structure Plan alternatives Structure plan pattern Linkage of Island and Mainland Location of sub-centers Discussion schedule in Jan and Feb 2
1 Project Outline 3
Objective and Target Objective of the Consulting Assignment: Formulate a Comprehensive Master Plan in the Mombasa Gate City including implementation and management program, and prioritize intervention areas/flagship projects through collaborative work with Mombasa city county government and concerned organizations Target Year: The target year of the Comprehensive Master Plan is 2040. Target Area: The Project will cover the area of the Mombasa County, it will be taken into consideration to cover surrounding area that are deeply relevant to the appropriate development of the Mombasa County Project Period: March 2015~ March 2017 Location Map 4
Workflow Important benchmark 2015 2016 2017 Understanding of current situation and development issues (situational analysis) Formulation of development vision Establishment of social and economic framework Formulation of structure plan and land use plan Formulation of strategy of infrastructure development Selection of priority areas and priority projects Conduct of traffic volume survey/household survey Traffic demand projection Development of urban development management Formulation of urban traffic network Development of database of urban transport Implementation of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment)
Workflow (1) Overall Understanding of current situation and issues (situational analysis) Formulation of development vision Establishment of social and economic framework Formulation of structure plan Formulation of land use plan Formulation of strategy of infrastructure development Selection of priority areas and projects Preparation of draft master plan Strategic Environmental Assessment/Stakeholder Meeting 2015 2016 2017 March~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach April~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach Reports ICR PR ITR DFR FR 6
Workflow (2) Transport Sector Conduct of traffic volume survey/household survey Development of future OD Traffic demand projection Formulation of urban traffic network Development of database of urban transport 2015 2016 2017 March~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach April~June July~Sept Oct ~ Dec Jan~Mach 7
Activities Conducted up to Dec 2015 Situational analysis Current situation, identifying issues and development direction for concerned sectors: Socio-economy (education, health), housing, tourism and heritage, urban, land use, informal settlements, transportation, water supply, sewerage/drainage, solid waste management, power, telecommunication, human resources and control. Transport related surveys SEA Traffic volume survey Household survey OD preparation Public Meeting (1) Oct, 2015: Project Outline, SEA contents Scoping Work: waiting for NEMA approval Development vision and structure plan Drafting development vision through working group discussion Examine direction of structure plan through working group discussion Working Group and Lectures Public Meeting Transparent urban management which promotes infrastructure development, urban facility development and land use control Preservation and utilization of heritage through land use management and tourism promotion 8
Deliverables Report Main Contents Timeline 1. Inception Report 2. Progress Report Approach Plan of operation Deliverables Result of current situation and issues Draft development vision Ideas of structure plan Social and economic framework April 2015 November 2015 3. Interim Report 4. Draft Final Report 5. Final Report Structure Plan Progress of traffic demand projection Draft Comprehensive Development Master Plan for Mombasa Gate City Final Comprehensive Development Master Plan for Mombasa Gate City February (March) 2016 January 2017 March 2017 In addition, SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) Report will be prepared separately after Draft Final Report is submitted for MP approval. 9
2 Discussion 10
Formulation of Development Vision Development vision shows uniqueness and direction of Mombasa which can be shared with stakeholders Points: What are the key words for describing Mombasa? How do you want Mombasa to be in 2040? What is the role of Mombasa in achieving Kenya Vision 2030? What is the role of Mombasa in the Northern Economic Corridor (Gate City)? Development Vision Economy Environment Governance Social and Culture Kenya Vision 2030: A globally competitive an prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030 Vision proposed in KMP: A vibrant world class commercial hub of excellence that promotes diversity, natural environment and heritage 11
Development Vision of Mombasa County (Draft) Development Vision: A premier gateway port city that upholds diversity and heritage Pillar 1: Vibrant Economy Pillar 2: High Quality of Life (social & culture) Pillar 3: Good Governance Pillar 4: Environment and energy Development vision of Mombasa is to support achieving Kenya Vision 2030 Mombasa as original gateway to Eastern Africa will be maintained and enhanced Two distinctive characteristics of Mombasa, namely Port/Logistics and Tourism, will be promoted hand in hand Tangible and intangible heritage will be preserved and utilized Wellbeing of people of Mombasa will be promoted and sustained 12
Three Pillars or Strategies Vibrant Economy Commercial/logistics promotion through efficient transport system, land use, infrastructure/urban services that contribute to improve conditions of Mombasa and strengthen Northern Economic Corridor Tourism development through utilization of resources and heritage, developing infrastructure, strengthening services High quality of life (social & culture) Provide social facilities to those needed particularly education and health Improve housing conditions Preserve and utilize tangible and intangible heritage (strengthening island function) Good Governance Transparent urban management which promotes infrastructure development, urban facility development and land use control Preservation and utilization of heritage through land use management and tourism promotion Environment and energy Coastal erosion Degradation of creeks, water contamination Flooding, climate change, solid waste 13
Points for Improvement (Comments from JICA) High quality of life (social & culture) Need to define high quality where aim for housing is for low income group, and basic infrastructure has to be developed high quality implies to provide basic needs for all population, or one step higher than basic, or simple relative comparison 14
STRUCTURE PLAN 15
Urban Issues (1):Regional Characteristics Mvita (Mombasa Island) (10,000 p/km2) highly populated area, little population increase Mixed use (residential, port, industry, administrative, commercial) Need to improve transport network in the island, improve efficiency of land use (avoid congestion in some economic activity) Why re-building of building does not happen? Nyali (South of Kisauni, Kongowea) (8,100 p/km2) Low density, high income residential area Individual houses are changing into high rise buildings (apartments, offices) Need to regulate development to secure comfortable residential area Kisauni (Bamburi) (2,369p/km2) Highly populated area, labor, slum (south), underdeveloped (north) Surrounded by water and hilly geography Planned development is necessary 16
Urban Issues (2):Regional Characteristics Jomvu (Miritini) (3,300p/km2) Connecting point of northern bypass, southern bypass, northern corridor, SCR Industry, CFSs, heavy traffic congestion Urban development and transport/public transport has to be developed together to avoid further congestion Changamwe (8,300p/km2) Industry CFS, airport, logistics facilities Heavily congested area and causing negative impact to transport in island Public transport has to be improved to reduce congestion Likoni (3,872p/km2) Low income resident. Many migrants (half of population) Development is left behind due to poor access Use ferry to commute to island Living environment and access has to be improved SEZ 17
Population trend (Census population) 1979 1989 1999 2009 Island (Mvita) 138,312 127,720 146,344 143,128 30 year average (0.1%) -0.8% 1.4% -0.2% Share 41% 28% 22% 15% Mainland North (Kisauni, Nyali) 80,299 153,324 249,861 380,055 30 year average (5.3%) 3.3% 4.4% 3.7% Share 24% 33% 38% 40% Mainland West (Changamwe, Jomvu) 82,353 113,469 173,930 250,179 30 year average (3.8%) 3.3% 4.4% 3.7% Share 24% 25% 26% 27% Mainland South (Likoni) 40,184 67,240 94,883 166,008 30 year average (4.8%) 5.3% 3.5% 5.8% Share 12% 15% 14% 18% Mombasa 341,148 461,753 665,018 939,370 30 year average (3.4%) 3.1% 3.7% 3.5% Share 100% 100% 100% 100% Kenya 30 year average (3.1%) 15,357,061 38,610,097 Source: Analyzed based on census population 18
Urbanization Trend Urbanization was limited in Island and in mainland Development has been taking place in in Mainland North and Mainland West Undeveloped Area (Urbanized area) in 2015: 101 km2, 45% Urbanization in 1971 Urbanization in 2015 (Prepared from ISUDP) 19
Current Land Use (Land Mass) Island Mainland North Mainland West Mainlnd South Mombasa Movita Kisauni Nyali Changamwe Jomvu Likoni Residential 5.02 16.52 13.01 3.54 6.38 15.44 59.91 Commercial 1.22 2.28 1.29 0.89 1.82 0.68 8.18 Industrial 2.85 0.83 1.34 6.29 0.50 0.52 12.33 Education 0.91 0.86 0.81 0.27 0.05 0.35 3.25 Public Purpose 0.94 4.05 0.80 0.04 3.48 3.55 12.86 Public Utility 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.30 0.12 0.05 0.78 Transportation 2.47 1.15 1.38 3.85 0.43 0.94 10.22 Recreational 0.68 0.54 1.99 0.01 0.06 0.18 3.46 Beach 0.79 0.11 0.47 1.37 Agriculture 3.71 0.01 0.10 2.05 0.47 6.34 Forest 3.39 0.00 3.39 Undeveloped 48.94 2.02 2.81 20.13 27.62 101.52 Total 14.24 83.20 22.78 18.10 35.02 50.27 223.61 (km2) 20
Current Land Use (Land Mass) (%) Island Mainland North Mainland West Mainland South Mombasa Movita Kisauni Nyali Changamwe Jomvu Likoni Residential 35.3% 19.9% 57.1% 19.6% 18.2% 30.7% 26.8% Commercial 8.6% 2.7% 5.7% 4.9% 5.2% 1.4% 3.7% Industrial 20.0% 1.0% 5.9% 34.8% 1.4% 1.0% 5.5% Education 6.4% 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% Public Purpose 6.6% 4.9% 3.5% 0.2% 9.9% 7.1% 5.8% Public Utility 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Transportation 17.3% 1.4% 6.1% 21.3% 1.2% 1.9% 4.6% Recreational 4.8% 0.6% 8.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% Beach 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% Agriculture 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.6% 5.9% 0.9% 2.8% Forest 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Undeveloped 0.0% 58.8% 8.9% 15.5% 57.5% 54.9% 45.4% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 21
Current Land Use (Island) Source: ISUDP 22
Current Land Use (Nyali) Source: ISUDP 23
Current Land Use (Kisauni) Source: ISUDP 24
Current Land Use (Changamwe) Source: ISUDP 25
Current Land Use (Jomvu) Source: ISUDP 26
Current Land Use (Likoni) Source: ISUDP 27
Future Framework Population and Economic Forecast 90,000,000 80,000,000 8,000,000 70,000,000 7,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 6,000,000 40,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2.51% 3.43% 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Population Growth 80,091,000 Population Kenya UN-DESA 2015 Population Kenya Population UN-DESA 2015 Population Mombasa Population: 1 million (2015), 2.7 million (2040) Population share in Kenya: 2.51% (2015) to 3.43% (2040) To contribute for 15% of Economic Share in 2040 (estimated at 7% in 2015), Mombasa needs to earn KES 3.3 billion a year, which is close to Kenya s 2012 GDP. Value addition becomes the key for economic growth. Source: UN-DESA, ISUDP, Mombasa SEZ and JICA Expert Team Billion KES 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Kenya 2040, 22,265 Mombasa (7-15%) 5,000 3,340 Mombasa (7-11%) 2,449 Mombasa (7%) 0 1,559 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Economic Growth 28
Population Framework (Population and Pop dens.) Population Population Density
Existing and Proposed Transportation Use Plan (ISUDP) 30
Proposed Land Use Plan (2035) (ISUDP) 31
Structure Plan/Spatial Pattern (Points of Discussion) Follow the De-Centralized Pattern of development Twin city development Multi core development: multifunction in urban areas (residential, commercial, mix use) Sub-Center with Green Belt Development Where is ideal location of sub-centers: land availability Population allocation by areas Justification of population allocation Related to urban development Transport network Strengthening of existing urban centers and support new sub-center development Linking Islands with mainland Improve urban function Residential and commercial: Nyali, Kisauni, Likoni SEZ: Likoni Logistics: Changamwe (sea port, airport), Jomvu 32
Northern Bypass Development Directions Strengthening of CBD in Island Improve transport network and SGR land use Strengthening of existing urban functions Development of new urban core in suburb (Mainland North, West, South) Link with transport network How many new urban core is necessary Designation of controlled areas SEZ Jomvu Changamwe Island Existing major regional corridor Major Development Factors Bypasses by 2020 SEZ and internal corridor plan
Northern Bypass Transport network Alternative 1: Small Loop Type development Transport network is organized by compilation of SGR small loop which enables transport to circulate efficiently Industrial loop, commercial loop, logistics loop Jomvu Changamwe CBD in Island Existing major urban areas Existing major regional corridor Island Major Development Factors Bypasses by 2020 SEZ SEZ and internal corridor plan
Northern Bypass Transport network Alternative 2: Radial Network Northern Bypass, Southern Bypass, SEZ, Port Improve transport network (Present regional road network, Major pipelined developments in near future: Connect bypass with radial road SGR Jomvu Changamwe Island CBD in Island Existing major urban areas Existing major regional corridor Major Development Factors Bypasses by 2020 SEZ SEZ and internal corridor plan
One of Alternatives of Transport Network (including ring type structure) 2 nd Nyali location As proposed by JST and Likoni Bridge location As proposed by JST SGR Jomvu 6 7 Changamwe 2 1 Northern Bypass 5 1) The Shimanji-Kipevu Link, will divert HVs from Makupa causeway, provide direct connection to Kipevu Link from berth 1-9 area. Try to use the existing bridge in the port. 2) Proposal 2 nd Nyali Bridge, forming a big circular road from Nyali avoiding Kongowea and old city, running along the peripheral of the island. This will give connection from rich Nyali car user to Kipevu link. 3)Proposal of Likoni Bridge (Gateway Bridge), connecting the Nyali- Lumumba ring road to the SEZ arterial, serving Kilifi-Kwale regionwide traffic as well as Nyali-SEZ business traffic. 4) The internal missing ling in the island, connecting industrial area to Moi, and Likoni ferry, to complete ring function in the Island. 3 4 Island 5) The ring road functions in Nyali/ Kisauni districts. The JST does not care about locations and alignments. Proposed major regional corridor With lower priority or Optional Vertically separated SEZ 8 6) The ring road functions in Jomvu/ Changamwe districts. The JST does not care about locations and alignments. 7) Third Nyali bridge function proposal, if neecssary. However, it will cost due to long span of bridge, and need serious feasibility check. 8) The ring road functions in Likoni districts. The JST does not care about locations and alignments.
Types of Structure Plan CBD CBD CBD One core system (mono core) 1970s Suburb development without network formation (present trend) What type of development pattern in suitable? CBD SC CBD CBD Twin city development CBD and suburban development Sub-center system (Multi core development) 37
Image of Structure Plan Twin City Development CBD and suburban development Sub-center system (Multi core development) There is development of two strong nodes [Positive aspect] Strong interconnectivity with high technology transport among the two nodes. [Negative aspect] No other towns develops in the region. Mombasa island Miritini Mombasa island Bamburi There is no dominating single settlement; all nodes of the polycentric network have the same relevance of spatial participation [Positive aspect] Better mobility will be maintained by decentralising the CBD Accelerated growth of subcentres Living condition in CBD will be maintained and more people will live in the suburbs with better living condition and lifestyle CBD: Mombasa Suburb: Miriniti, Likoni, Kongowea, Bamburi, Likoni Development of minor settlements along the transport corridor connecting strong nodes (subcenters). [Positive aspect] Better mobility will be maintained by decentralising the CBD Living condition in CBD will be maintained and more people will live in the suburbs with better living condition and lifestyle Strong axial development with strong polar forms. Multi-function in the sub-centers [Other feature] Multi modal transport along corridors is required CBD: Mombasa Sub-Centers: Minirini, Bamburi, Likoni 38
Northern Bypass Twin City Development CBDs Island-Miritini Island-Bamburi Existing urban function/centers SGR Jomvu Changamwe Existing major regional corridor Island Major Development Factors Bypasses by 2020 SEZ SEZ and internal corridor plan
Northern Bypass Sub-Center Development Sub-centers will be developed outskirts of county boundary (Miritini, SGR Bamburi/Mwembel engeza, Pungu/Vijiweni Supporting urban function is developed between sub-centers Nyali is kept as residential function to avoid commercial development Jomvu Changamwe Island CBD in Island Existing urban function/centers New urban cores in suburb in future Existing major regional corridor Major Development Factors Bypasses by 2020 SEZ SEZ and internal corridor plan
Further Discussion Select 3 alternatives of structure plan Identify urban structure: CBD, Sub-Centers Bring 3 alternatives to public meeting Detail discussion by areas (island, mainland) 41
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