Collaborative researches and activities on water-related disasters in ASEAN countries Anawat Suppasri Fumihiko Imamura Natt Leelawat suppasri@irides.tohoku.ac.jp http://www.tsunami.civil.tohoku.ac.jp/hokusai3/j/people/member/anawatto.html International Research Institute of Disaster Science Tohoku University 22 March 2017 1
About us 2
An example of our integrated research on science and literature 3
Tsunami trace database (Japan) Natural science Evaluation of historical tsunami magnitude Large spatial scale: Country/region The 2011 disaster archive Tsunami numerical simulation(tunami) +HPCI, Two-Layer Tsunami deposit excavation Sediment transport/topographic change simulation Hazard map (Element/composition) Tsunami warning/ tsunami observation information Damage/loss estimation (Human, buildings, boat) (IES)+(OBASAN) Ecosystem (coastal forest) for DRR Big data Disaster damage info. system (Mobile app) Damage/risk map (Element/composition) Countermeasure for Nankai tsunami/ Application of lessons Disaster education/ enlightenment (Schools/residents) Disaster education, system and tool development Planning/ Disaster governance Human/social science Risk cognition/risk communication Disaster/ evacuation information Tsunami evacuation simulation (Multi-agent+TUNAMI Small spatial scale: Individual/group Evacuation behavior (Disaster period) Evacuation framework (Normal period) HPC enhanced Real-time, regional scale simulation
Contents After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami Tsunami warning systems Tsunami evacuation and planning Tsunami fragility functions for buildings Tsunami hazards in Indian Ocean and South China Sea After the 2011 Tohoku tsunami 2012 Jakarta flood 2013 Super typhoon Haiyan and storm surge World Tsunami Awareness Day Disaster reduction class 5
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2011 Great East Japan tsunami M9.3 Rupture = 1,000 km M9.0 Rupture = 500 km The 2011 Great East Japan tsunami Max. tsunami = 50 m with 230,000 deaths Affected 15 Asian and African countries Max. tsunami = 40 m with 19,000 deaths Mainly affected Japan 6
Tsunami warning systems Tsunami Monitoring Area Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Source: Ekmahachai (2013) National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC), Thailand 7
Contents After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami Tsunami warning systems Tsunami evacuation and planning Tsunami fragility functions for buildings Tsunami hazards in Indian Ocean and South China Sea After the 2011 Tohoku tsunami 2012 Jakarta flood 2013 Super typhoon Haiyan and storm surge World Tsunami Awareness Day Disaster reduction class 8
Comparison of fatality ratio with other historical tsunamis Fatality ratio (%) 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 (1) (2) (4) (3) (5) 1771 Meiwa 1896 Meiji 1933 Showa 1944 Tonankai 1946 Nankai 1960 Chile 1993 Okushiri 2011 Tohoku Ria 2011 Tohoku Plain 1 10 100 Maximum tsunami height (m) Tsunamis in Japan 1 240 years ago 2 100 years ago 3 37 years after prior event 4 400 years no tsunami 5 10 years after prior event Tsunamis in Indian Ocean 1 Banda Aceh 2 3 4 5 Java & Mentawai Suppasri et al. (2012) Coastal Engineering Journal Suppasri et al. (2013) Pure and Applied Geophysics Fatality ratio (%) 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 (1) (2) (4) (3) (5) 1771 Meiwa 1896 Meiji 1933 Showa 1960 Chile 1944 Tonankai 1946 Nankai 1993 Okushiri 2004 Indonesia 2004 Thailand 2004 India 2006 Java 2010 Mentawai 1 10 100 9 Maximum tsunami height (m)
Evaluation of the pedestrian bridge as vertical evacuation and its possible enhancement Application to Padang city (Dr. Abdul Muhari) Case 1: Only horizontal evacuation Exit point Case 4: Only horizontal evacuation + 32 tsunami decks Virtual tsunami-deck No land acquisition is needed but less space for evacuee Land acquisition is needed but much space for evacuee 1. Evacuation time : Estimated Tsunami Arrival Time (ETA, 20 min) Tsunami warning dissemination time (5min) Reaction time (5min) = 10 min 2. Average evacuation time: 25.1 min 1. Average evacuation time: 12.25 min 2. Total number of exposed population 1. Daytime : 67,163 2. Nighttime : 60,895 10
Contents After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami Tsunami warning systems Tsunami evacuation and planning Tsunami fragility functions for buildings Tsunami hazards in Indian Ocean and South China Sea After the 2011 Tohoku tsunami 2012 Jakarta flood 2013 Super typhoon Haiyan and storm surge World Tsunami Awareness Day Disaster reduction class 11
Fragility curves based on the 2004 tsunami data Southern Thailand (Ruangrassa mee et al., 2006 and Suppasri et al., 2011) Banda Aceh, Indonesia (Koshimura et al., 2009 and Valencia et al., 2011) Sri Lanka (Murao and Nakazato, 2010) Wood RC with brick wall Wood RC with brick wall Non-solid Solid > 1.5 m: no damage up to damage to secondary members only > 2.5 m: damage to some primary members up to collapse > 3 m: collapse < 1.0 m: no damage 1.0 2.0 m: no damage up to damage to secondary members only 2.0 3.0 m: damage to secondary up to some primary members > 3.0 m: damage to some primary members up to collapse > 7.0 m: collapse < 2.0 m: moderate damage 2.0-3.0 m: important damage > 3.0 m: total destruction < 2.0 m: no damage 2.0-3.0 m: light damage > 3.0 m: moderate damage > 7.0 m: total destruction > 2.0 m: moderate damage > 3.0 m: heavy damage > 4.0 m: Complete damage > 2.5 m: moderate damage 12 > 4.0 m: heavy damage
Indian Ocean Tsunami risk evaluation in Thailand (Contribution to my home country!) Population at risk 250,000 4--9 4--8 4--7 4--6 5--6 5 M9.0 M8.9 M8.7 M8.5 M8.2 M7.6 200,000 150,000 100,000 Ranong Phuket Trang Maximum tsunami height 25 50,000 Phang Nga Krabi Satul 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Arrival time (min) 4--9 5--9 6--9 5--7 5--6 6 Population at risk M9.0 M8.9 M8.7 M8.5 M8.2 M7.6 250,000 20 200,000 15 150,000 10 100,000 50,000 5 0 0 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Return period (year) 2 4 6 8 10 Tsunami amplitude (m) 600 4--9 Tsunami amplitude (m) 5--9 4--7 4--6 5--6 6 8 6 4 2 0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 Arrival time (min)