The Fourth Technical Conference on the Management of Meteorological and Hydrological Services in WMO RA II (Asia) Be relevant and effective thinking beyond accuracy and timeliness C. Y. LAM Hong Kong Observatory February 2007
Hong Kong Observatory = weather forecasting centre
equipment data NMS users forecast
The real picture Many individuals Many sectors Many different requirements A wide range of time scales HKO = meteorological service
Accurate & timely Forecast for tomorrow Website statistics show that. #1 = observations #2 = 3-day forecast #3 = forecast for tomorrow
Observations Accuracy > regional AWS Timeliness > hourly (at least) & within minutes
3-day forecast Timeliness = more days ahead Accuracy = only expecting broad trend HKO: 5-day (2000), 7-day (2004)
Accurate and timely A fluid concept Adapts itself to the context Know the requirements Be relevant
Be relevant now Current readings Now and where people live AWS network Radio and dial-a-weather Internet
HKO automatic weather stations in Hong Kong
Webpage showing regional temperature readings
Network of automated rain-gauges in Hong Kong
03:00, 16/07/2006 Webpage showing a localized rainstorm based on the merging of rain-gauge and radar data
Be relevant days ahead Broad trend More planning options for people Make good use of NWP data JMA & ECMWF Time series Automated worded forecasts
Forecast time series of meteorological parameters generated by HKO based on JMA model outputs
Automated 7-day worded forecasts generated by an algorithm developed by HKO based on JMA and ECMWF model outputs
Be relevant in decades Climate change interest Timeliness - predicting future climate Accuracy - a lower priority Must say something Statistical downscaling
Projected annual number of cold days in winter for Hong Kong Number of cold days in winter Lower Limit Upper Limit Average 4 days 0. 8 days 0 days Decade Projected number of cold days in winter for Hong Kong
Be relevant to people Safety Health Environment Tourism Leisure activities
Health Cold weather warning Criterion 12 C Switching on the society Caring about the old and the weak
Environment Increasing number of days with haze Raising concern about pollution Trend statistics Visibility observations in website Webcam images
Webpage showing visibility readings in Hong Kong
Weather photo webpage in the HKO website
Tourism Automatic weather stations at tourist spots
Leisure activities Marine sports Aviation sports Understanding their needs Dedicated web pages
Building the capacity Relevance model of operation Observations - AWS Forecasts external sources of information
equipment data Give me the best available equipment. NMS NMS users forecast Forecasts must be accurate and timely. The equipment-driven model of operation of national meteorological services
administration technical specifications requirements equipment data NMS requirements users observations analyses products forecasts service The requirement-driven model of operation of national meteorological services
AWS Technological advances: Affordable Solar & wind power Multiple communication means e.g. GPRS, 3G
External info sources RA II pilot project forecast time series for cities from advanced centres via internet [121 cities, 11 Members] Post-processing techniques ECMWF initiative
An example of time series products provided By KMA under the RA II pilot project
An example of time series provided by ECMWF
Accurate and timely = relevant to users Requirement-driver model of operation Common needs > AWS network Several days > forecast time series Diversify into climate change, health, environment, tourism, leisure activities, etc.
Relative strength of two different representations of a national meteorological service
Sustainable NMS Accurate and timely Be relevant and effective
Sit on a stool with many legs!