Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting) Phil Klotzbach 7 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones November 18, 2010 Working Group: Maritza Ballester (INSMET), Tony Barnston (IRI), Gerry Bell (NOAA/CPC), Joanne Camp (UKMET), Johnny Chan (City University of Hong Kong), David Jones (BOM Australia), Yuriy Kuleshov (BOM Australia), Tim LaRow (Florida State University), Mark Saunders (Tropical Storm Risk), O. P. Singh (India BOM), Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
Outline Observations Forecasts
Key Areas of Research (North Atlantic) El Niño Southern Oscillation Atlantic Meridional Mode Relative SST Quasi Biennial Oscillation
Anomalous 200 mb Outflow Associated with El Niño Events Gray (1984)
El Niño Modoki Hypothesized Influence on North Atlantic TCs Kim et al. (2009)
Atlantic Meridional Mode Atlantic TC Relationship Kossin and Vimont (2007)
Relative SST (North Atlantic Tropical SST Tropical SST) Atlantic TC Relationship Cat. 4 5 Hurricane Tracks Vecchi et al. (2008)
Quasi Biennial Oscillation Atlantic TC Relationship Failure in Recent Years Camargo and Sobel (2010, in press)
Key Areas of Research (North Pacific) El Niño Southern Oscillation Northeast Pacific North Atlantic Inverse Relationship Quasi Biennial Oscillation
El Niño La Niña North Pacific Impacts Camargo et al. 2007 a) Genesis, b) Track a) 850 mb Vorticity, b) 200 850 mb Vertical Shear, c) Potential Intensity, d) 600 mb RH
Northeast Pacific North Atlantic Inverse Relationship Correlation between North Atlantic ACE and Vertical Wind Shear Correlation between North Atlantic ACE and East North Pacific ACE Wang and Lee (2010)
QBO Impacts in the North Pacific Correlation Analysis Basin Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes Hurricane Days ACE Northeast Pacific (1953 2008) 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.11 0.10 Northeast Pacific (1953 1982) 0.11 0.04 0.21 0.07 0.11 Northeast Pacific (1983 2008) 0.16 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.02 Central Pacific (1953 2008) 0.19 0.27 0.20 0.25 0.03 Central Pacific (1953 1982) 0.11 0.37 0.34 0.32 0.29 Central Pacific (1983 2008) 0.40 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.26 Northwest Pacific (1953 2008) 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.00 Northwest Pacific (1953 1982) 0.27 0.10 0.20 0.22 0.16 Northwest Pacific (1983 2008) 0.12 0.09 0.02 0.08 0.14 Correlations significant at the 95% level are bold faced Camargo and Sobel (2010)
Key Areas of Research (North Indian) El Niño Southern Oscillation Monsoon Onset Time
El Niño La Niña North Indian Ocean Impacts Camargo et al. 2007 a) Genesis, b) Track a) 850 mb Vorticity, b) 200 850 mb Vertical Shear, c) Potential Intensity, d) 600 mb RH
Arabian Sea Storms Active May Conditions Active June Conditions Evan and Camargo (2010, in press)
Key Areas of Research (South Indian) El Niño Southern Oscillation
South Indian Ocean TC ENSO Relationship November April anomalous 500 mb RH in a) El Niño, b) La Niña Kuleshov et al. (2009)
Key Areas of Research (South Pacific/Australia) El Niño Southern Oscillation
Correlation between Nov Apr Nino 3.4 and a) 200 850 mb vertical shear and b) 850 mb relative vorticity Ramsay et al. (2008)
Camargo et al. (2007) January March Genesis Potential Anomaly a) El Niño, b) La Niña, c) (El Niño La Niña) January March El Niño La Niña Difference for a) 850 mb vorticity, b) 200 850 mb vertical wind shear, c) potential intensity, d) 600 mb relative humidity
Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Statistical Statistical/Dynamical Dynamical
Statistical Forecasting Groups Colorado State University (North Atlantic) Tropical Storm Risk (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Australia) Cuban Institute of Meteorology (North Atlantic) City University of Hong Kong (Northwest Pacific, Australia) Bureau of Meteorology Australia (Australia, South Pacific)
Post 1 August Seasonal Forecast Predictors (CSU) Pre 1 August NSD S of 23.5 N, E of 75 W 3 June July SST 4 June July SST 1 2 EQ. June July SLP
12 10 Colorado State University Predicted vs. Observed Post 31 July North Atlantic Hurricanes (1984 2010) Predicted Observed r = 0.65 8 6 4 2 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Tropical Storm Risk U.S. Landfall Prediction Methodology and Hindcast Skill a) July 925 400 mb vector wind average, b) August October 925 400 mb vector wind average difference between active vs. inactive US landfall ACE seasons Saunders and Lea (2005)
Comparison between estimated probability of at least one hurricane forming and reaching hurricane intensity within the Caribbean Sea and mean annual probability 100 Forecast Update real Clim. Probability (%) 80 60 40 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Forecast: 2nd 4th May Update: 1st August
South China Landfall Forecast 2010 Observation (Canonical Post El Niño Year) Japan/Korea Landfall Forecast City University of Hong Kong Forecasts
BOM Australia Forecast for Australian Region TCs (90 160 E)
Statistical/Dynamical Forecasting Groups National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific) Bureau of Meteorology Australia (Australia, South Pacific) in the near future
Statistical Analysis Dynamical Model Forecasts Climate Forecast System (CFS) ECMWF UKMET European Seasonal to Interannual Prediction ensemble (EUROSIP)
Dynamical Forecasting Groups United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre (North Atlantic) European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific, Northwest Pacific, Southern Hemisphere) International Research Institute for Climate and Society (North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, Australia) Florida State University (North Atlantic)
UK Met Office Dynamical Forecast Forecast Total Number of TCs and ACE Uses GloSea4 system and ECMWF system Count TC like vortices and calculate ACE generated by vortices June Named Storm Forecast Verification (2007 2009) 2007: Predicted 10, Observed 12 2008: Predicted 15, Observed 15 2009: Predicted 6, Observed 9
ECMWF Dynamical Forecast Forecast Total Named Storms, Hurricanes, ACE, and Mean Genesis Location Tracks TCs in the ECMWF atmospheric component using tracking procedure described in Vitart et al. (1997, 2003) Model integrated for seven months
IRI Dynamical Forecast Two Tiered Forecast System: 1) Predict SSTs using combination of statistical and dynamical models, 2) Run ensemble integrations of the ECHAM 4.5 AGCM Track TC like vortices in the ECHAM 4.5 model
FSU Dynamical Forecast Forecast SSTs using the Climate Forecast System (CFS) Track TC like vortices in the FSU/COAPS AGCM Larow et al. (2010)
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future Yogi Berra
Questions???