Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar-2017 1
MSL Analysis/Sat Image (Thursday) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif http://www.bom.gov.au 2
Review of Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-02-Mar-2017 MSL Pressure Analysis 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 3
MSL Analysis/Sat Image (Friday) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif http://www.bom.gov.au 4
Summer Rainfall 5
Summer Rainfall Deciles 6
MSL Analyses : Sat-25-Feb to Thu-02-Mar 7
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases Two Months Back[CENTERED 14-DEC]: Last Week [CENTRED 22-FEB]: 8
Seasonal Outlook (Numerical Model) Mar-May 9
Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.11 (0.21 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -0.38, the average SOI for the past 30 days is -1.71, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is - 0.055. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for FEB/MAR is 0.11. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a very weak El Niño. 10
Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) RAINFALL: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that total APR/MAY/JUN rainfall will be above normal in the WEST GIPPSLAND District, but there is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN overnight temperatures will be above normal in the CENTRAL District, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be below normal in the WESTERN District, there is a very slightly enhanced chance that average APR/MAY/JUN daytime temperatures will be above normal in the MALLEE, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and CENTRAL Districts, but there is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. 11
- & for Melbourne 30 Days(Statistical Model) 12
Jet Streams: Fri-03-Mar-2017 13
MSL Pressure: Fri-03-Mar-2017 14
Jet Streams: Sat-04-Mar-2017 15
MSL Pressure: Sat-04-Mar-2017 16
Jet Streams: Sun-05-Mar-2017 17
Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Feb-2017 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Sun-05-Mar-2017 18
Jet Streams: Mon-06-Mar-2017 19
Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Feb-2017 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Mon-06-Mar-2017 20
Jet Streams: Tue-07-Mar-2017 21
MSL Pressure: Tue-07-Mar-2017 22
Jet Streams: Wed-08-Mar-2017 23
MSL Pressure: Wed-08-Mar-2017 24
Jet Streams: Thu-09-Mar-2017 25
MSL Pressure: Thu-09-Mar-2017 26
Official 7-Day Forecast (Olympic Park) 27
GFS (US-Model) 7-Day Forecast (Olympic Park & Melbourne CBD) 28
ECMWF-Model 7-Day Forecast (Melbourne CBD) 29
Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-09-Mar-2017 168H ACCESS. 168H US GFS - Rapid Update 168H ECMWF - Deterministic 30
ECMWF MSL Pressure (Deterministic): Fri-10-Mar-2017 to Sun-12-Mar-2017 31
Chart Discussion: Fri-03-Mar-2017 Thank You http://www.weather-climate.com/chartdiscussion03mar2017.pdf 32