Occurrence of 1-4 REarth Planets Orbiting Sun-Like Stars Geoff Marcy, Erik Petigura, Andrew Howard Planet Density vs Radius + Collaborators: Lauren Weiss, Howard Isaacson, Rea Kolbl, Lea Hirsch Thanks to: UC Berkeley, Univ. Hawaii, Keck Observatory, NASA 1
Kepler Planets 20 10 Jupiter R p / R e 4 Neptune 1 Earth 1 5 10 50 100 500 1000 Period [days] Rowe et al. (2014)
Kepler Planets 20 10 Jupiter For a given stellar sample: R p / R e 4 Planet Occurrence = N(planets) N(stars) Neptune 1 Earth Rowe et al. (2014) 1 5 10 50 100 500 1000 Period [days] 3
Kepler Planets 20 10 Jupiter R p / R e 4 Planet Occurrence = Neptune N(planets found) + N(planets missed) N(stars) 1 Earth Rowe et al. (2014) 1 5 10 50 100 500 1000 Period [days] 4
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
TERRA In-house photometric Transit Search: Optimized for small planet detection Enables measurement of detection efficiency (completeness) using injection and recovery experiments E.Petigura (2013)
TERRA optimized for small planets Time domain preprocessing - Start with raw photometry - Gaussian process detrending - Calibration - Petigura & Marcy 2012 Earth-size planet found Transit search - Matched filter - Similar to BLS algorithm (Kovcas+ 02) - Leverages Fast-Folding Algorithm (Staelin+ 68; Petigura+ 13, in prep) Data validation SNR = 30 - Significant peaks in periodogram, but inconsistent with exoplanet transit SNR (Kovacs, Zucker, Mazeh 2002) depth = 180 ppm Transit Periodogram P = 10.4 days Transit Period [days] 10 20 30 40
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
Identifying eclipsing binaries using secondary eclipses Flux Primary 7% dimming Flux (ppt) Secondary 0.2% dimming Teff = 2343 K not a planet Time (days)
40,000 bright GK stars Search for significant transits using TERRA photometric pipeline Q1 Q15 2184 TCEs Remove non-astrophysical false positives 836 ekois Remove astrophysical false positives 603 planet candidates Centroid Odd-even Transit shape Secondary eclipse
603 Planet Candidates Planet size (Earth-radii) 20 10 5 4 3 2 574 (95%) KOIs (Nov 2013) 597 (99%) KOIs (Jun 2014) Keck HIRES spectra of 318 ekois 1 0.5 Keck Spectra of all 62 Stars 5 10 20 30 40 50 100 200 300 400 Orbital period (days) Keck spectra of all 62 candidates with P > 100 days 14
Keck HIRES Spectra KIC011415243 Better stellar parameters - R good to 10% (photometry: 40%) KIC006225454 - L good to 25% (photometry: 80%) Find false positives KIC009447166 Flux - Detect second set of lines - Kolbl and Marcy (2014) Wavelength (A) Petigura+ in prep (SpecMatch) 15
False positive vetting G Star + Earth G Star + M Star + Neptune Kolbl and Marcy (2014) 16
1000 500 0-500 Representative Earth-size Candidates -1000-1500 1000 4742.01 KIC-4138008 P 112.30 Rp 1.37 Fp 0.74 KIC-4912650 P 100.35 Rp 1.47 Fp 2.66 5098.01 No KOI KIC-6225454 P 89.34 Rp 1.73 Fp 1.57 Period > 40 days 500 0-500 9/10 are KOIs. -1000-1500 KIC-7877978 P 56.57 Rp 1.87 Fp 2.95 KIC-8183288 P 66.65 Rp 1.43 Fp 1.95 2760.01 3255.01 2931.01 KIC-8611257 P 99.25 Rp 1.65 Fp 1.98 Keck spectra of all. 1000 500 Text Text 0-500 -1000-1500 KIC-9447166 P 62.87 Rp 1.48 Fp 2.93 KIC-11415243 P 168.81 Rp 1.74 Fp 0.80 3296.01 4036.01 2124.01 KIC-11462341 P 42.34 Rp 1.04 Fp 2.28 1000 Flux flux (ppm) 500 0-500 -1000-1500 -2000 2290.01 KIC-12121570 P 91.50 Rp 1.95 Fp 2.16 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 t - t0 [days] Time (days) Figure S15: Phase folded photometry for ten Earth-size HZ candidates. Black point shows show TERRAcalibrated photometry folded on the best fit ephemeris listed in Table S2. The green symbols show the 17
Planet Occurrence =??? N(planets found) + N(planets missed) N(stars)
Earth-size planet dims star by 0.01% Planet detected Brightness Time 1 year Does not transit Star too noisy 19
Injection and Recovery Determination: Pipeline Completeness 20 1. Draw ( RP, P ) randomly from search domain Planet size (Earth-radii) 10 5 4 3 2 1 Injected transit recovered Text not recovered 2. Choose random star from survey (40,000 GK stars) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Survey Completeness (C) % 3. Inject synthetic light curve in photometry (real noise) 4. Execute TERRA pipeline 5. Did we recover the injected planet? 0.5 5 10 20 30 40 50 100 200 300 400 Orbital period (days)
40,000 Injection and Recovery Experiments 40,000 Injection and Recovery Experiments 21
Completeness from Injection and Recovery 20 Planet size (Earth-radii) 10 5 4 3 2 1 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Survey Completeness (C) % 0.5 5 10 20 30 40 50 100 200 300 400 Orbital period (days) Fig. 1 Two-dimensional domain of orbital period and planet size, on a logarithmic scale. Red circles show the 603 22 dete planets in our survey of 42,557 bright, Sun-like stars (Kp =10 15mag,GKspectraltype). Thecolorscaleshowssu
Planet Occurrence = N(planets found) + N(planets missed) N(stars)
Planet Occurrence: Planet Size and Orbital Period 16 74% Planet size (Earth-radii) 8 4 2 1 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Planet Occurrence 0.5 6.25 12.5 25 50 100 200 400 Orbital period (days) 24
26% of GK stars have Planets: Radius: 1-2 R Earth Period: < 100 days
26% of GK stars have Planets: Radius: 1-2 R Earth Period: < 100 days
Batalha 26% of GK stars have Planets: Radius: 1-2 R Earth Period: < 100 days Mullally, Batlaha, Burke, et al: 29% for 1-2 REarth, P < 50 d 60% for 1-2 REarth, P < 300 d Charbonneau et al:
Batalha 26% of GK stars have Planets: Radius: 1-2 R Earth Period: < 100 days Mullally, Batlaha, Burke, et al: 29% for 1-2 REarth, P < 50 d 60% for 1-2 REarth, P < 300 d Charbonneau et al: Our work: Only one planet included per host star. ==> 26% is a Lower limit to occurrence
26% of GK stars have Planets: Radius: 1-2 R Earth Period: < 100 days
Planet Occurrence: Planet Radius and Incident Flux 20 10 Planet size (Earth-radii) 5 4 3 2 1 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Survey Completeness (C) % 0.5 1000 100 10 1 0.1 Stellar Light Intensity (Earth-units) 32
Planet size (Earth-radii) 20 10 5 4 3 2 1 11 ± 4% occurrence FP = 1 4 FE RP = 1 2 RE Spectroscopic Errors 1 2x Size of Earth 0.5 1000 100 10 1 0.1 Stellar Light Intensity (Earth-units) 33
Multi-Planet Sub-Neptunes: Formation Clue Orbital Distance (AU)
Multi-Planet Sub-Neptunes: Formation Clue Not in Mean Motion Resonances Orbital Distance (AU)
Multi-Planet Sub-Neptunes: Formation Clue Not in Mean Motion Resonances Inward migration in lock-step, and parking are both unlikely. Orbital Distance (AU)
Multi-Planet Sub-Neptunes: Formation Clue Not in Mean Motion Resonances Inward migration in lock-step, and parking are both unlikely. Sub-Neptunes formed nearly in situ. Orbital Distance (AU)
Sub-Neptunes: Summary Ü Probably Formed in close - Near where are they are now.