Atlantic Region s Changing Climate Dr. Adam Fenech, University of Prince Edward Island Climate Change and Aquaculture Symposium 11 March 2014
Disclaimer Analysis has not been checked Some analysis uses raw climate data, not quality-controlled homogenized data Work has not been peer-reviewed
Dr. Adam Fenech says: Every Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts or Adaptation study begins with examining the past climate and the future climate
Outline: 1. Atlantic Region s Past Climate 2. Atlantic Region s Future Climate 3. Atlantic Region s Ocean Temperatures 4. Ocean Acidification on the Scotian Shelf
Has the Atlantic Region s Temperatures Changed in the Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past 30 years? Warmer? Colder? No Change? Don t Know! Don t Care! 5
Temperature Normals 6 5 Annual Mean Temperature Climate Normals Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada 5.2 5.3 5.6 degrees Celsius 4 3 2 1 0 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010 degrees Celsius 7 6 5 4 3 2 5.5 Annual Mean Temperature Climate Normals Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada 5.8 6.03 1 0 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010
Trends in PEI s Annual Mean Temperature 8 Annual Mean Temperature Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2011 7 C 6 5 1 C 4 3 1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 Year Temperature Increases Mostly from Winter Night-time Lows 7
Newfoundland s Changing Seasons Annual Mean Temperature St. John's A, Newfoundland 1942-2011 degrees Celsius 7 6 5 4 3 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 Year Season Mean Temperature ( C) Winter +2.1 Spring +0.4 Summer +1.5 Autumn +1.9
PEI s Monthly Temperatures 100 Years Later 1.2 Difference between 1881-1910 and 1981-2010 in the Monthly Mean Temperatures Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 C 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 December November October September August July June May April March February January 9
Temperature Extremes # of days Tmax> 27.5 C 25 20 15 10 5 Extreme Hot Days Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2011 Over previous 138 years 1937 experienced most extreme hot days at 24. 1999 over the past 30 years. 0 1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 Year 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 25 Extreme Cold Days Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2011 1993 the year with the most extreme cold days over the past 30 years # of days Tmin<-20 C 20 15 10 5 Pinatubo 0 1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 Year 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 10
Has Atlantic Region s Precipitation Changed in the Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past 30 years? Wetter? Drier? No Change? Don t Know! Don t Care! 11
Precipitation Normals 1400 1200 1176 Annual Total Precipitation "Normals" Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada 1202 1183 1000 mm/year 800 600 400 200 0 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010
Atlantic Region s Changing Climate Total Precipitation St. John's A, Newfoundland 1942-2010 mm 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Year 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 1900 2005 2008 2011 Ø Over past 70 years +4% past 30 years Annual Total Precipitation Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island 1873 to 2010 1800 1700 Ø mm 1600 1500 1400 Over past 142 years -14% past 30 years 1300 1200 1100 1000 1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 Year 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
Snow Days 60 57 Snow Days "Normal" Truro, Nova Scotia, Canada Days per year with measureable snow 50 40 30 20 50 45 10 0 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010
Frequency of Precipitation 1980 to 2012 Charlottetown, PEI 12% 0.50 0.40 % *100 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year 14 Over previous 32 years raining/snowing less often (# of days decreasing) especially in summer Intensity of Precipitation 1980 to 2012 Charlottetown, PEI Over previous 32 years raining/snowing harder (more per event) especially in the summer and autumn 6% mm/event 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year 15
Looking Into Atlantic Region s Future 16
Atlantic Region s Future Climate Temperature Change by 2050s ( C)
Atlantic Region s Future Climate Precipitation Change by 2050s ( % )
Ocean Temperatures Source: Peter Galbrieth, DFO
Gulf of St. Lawrence Temperatures Source: Peter Galbrieth, DFO
Ocean Acidification Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations leads to increased CO2 concentrations in the surface ocean (i.e., upper 100 200 metres or so) As carbon dioxide dissolves in the surface ocean, a certain proportion reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, which is a weak acid that increases the dissolved hydrogen ion concentration and decreases ph
Ocean Acidification Impacts Altered seawater chemistry Dissolution of corals and calcareous species Changes in benthic invertebrate and fish productivity Changes in species composition and dominance Increased seaweed and sea grass growth Impacted economy and society
ph Changes on the Scotian Shelf Source: DFO, 2009
Conclusions for Atlantic Region Climate is warmer, and wetter/drier (depending on where) over past 100 years (especially past 15-30 years) Future climate projected to be warmer (~3-4 C) and wetter (~6-12%) Ocean temperatures follow ambient air temperatures Gulf of St.Lawrence temperatures increasing Scotian Shelf acidity increasing