Civilization exists by Geologic consent Subject to change without notice. -- Durant EERI SACRAMENTO CHAPTER CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, SACRAMENTO APRIL 27, 2017 California s New Earthquake Early Warning System And Why We Are Different by John G. Parrish, Ph. D., PG
California s Geological Diversity
California Has Largest and Most Diverse Population and Economy
California Earthquakes in the Last 200 Years
75% National Earthquake Risk
What is an Earthquake? Sudden slip between two blocks of crust along a fault Elastic rebound theory Slip releases elastic strain energy Rock stores elastic strain energy
Earthquake Waves The P-wave carries information and the S-wave carries energy. -Kanamori P-wave ~3.5 mi/sec S-wave ~2 mi/sec Seismogram (ground motion) Time P S PGA PGA = Peak Ground Acceleration
CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES (GENERAL) The colors on this California map represent the UCERF probabilities of having a nearby earthquake rupture (within 3 or 4 miles) of magnitude 6.7 or larger in the next 30 years. As shown in the table, the chance of having such an event somewhere in California exceeds 99%. The 30-year probability of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or larger is about 46%.
Earthquake Probabilities Probabilities of an Earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 30 years.
CISN California Integrated Seismic Network Core members USGS (Pasadena & Menlo Park) Caltech UC Berkeley Calif. Geological Survey (CSMIP) CalOES Participating members (real-time data contributors) UC San Diego UC Santa Barbara University of Nevada Reno Calif. Dept. of Water Resources Lawrence Livermore National Labs PG&E EarthScope - US Array/PBO CalEnergy Calpine CICESE And more
CISN Post-Earthquake Products ShakeMap CISN Display ShakeCast Pager ENS ShakeAlert
CISN California Integrated Seismic Network Shake Alert What is earthquake early warning? A warning seconds to minutes prior to shaking
CISN California Integrated Seismic Network Shake Alert What is it for? Allows individuals to duck, cover and hold on before shaking starts Allows automated systems to slow, stop, or switch to a safe mode Allows for situation awareness to reduce cascading failures Reduces the cost of earthquakes Reduces the the recovery time following earthquakes
First proposed by Cooper Earthquake early warning Timeline First proposed earthquake early warning system San Francisco, 1868 J.D. Cooper, MD, proposed: Detectors outside the city Use telegraph wires Earthquake bell Automated Will work for distant shocks
First proposed by Cooper Re-proposed by Tom Heaton Earthquake early warning Timeline +1
First proposed by Cooper Re-proposed by Tom Heaton Mexican warning system Earthquake early warning Timeline Built following the 1985 earthquake Operational since 1991 M7.2 April 18, 2014
First proposed by Cooper Re-proposed by Tom Heaton Mexican warning system Japanese warning system Earthquake early warning Timeline October 2007: Nationwide public warning system launched
First proposed by Cooper Re-proposed by Tom Heaton Mexican warning system Japanese warning system California demo system Earthquake early warning Timeline CISN California Integrated Seismic Network Shake Alert September 2011: First alert before felt shaking
First proposed by Cooper Re-proposed by Tom Heaton Mexican warning system Japanese warning system California demo system California legislation Earthquake early warning Timeline Introduced by Senator Alex Padilla Passed both houses unanimously Signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown September 24, 2013 The law: CalOES to Develop statewide system Develop standards Identify funding (not taxes)
Who in the World is Doing EEW? Public notifications
Main Components of EEW System Dense sensors (seismic & GPS) Reliable field telemetry Fast processing to determine: Location, magnitude Fault extent & slip Fast mass notification End user interaction & education Sensors Field telemetry Processing Notifications Users
Pacific Northwest West Coast Centers EEW is a natural extension of ANSS & CISN core capabilities Northern California Leverage Technical Management Southern California Community engagement
California Integrated Seismic Network EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING APPLICATIONS HUMAN RESPONSES Drop, Cover, Hold On! Brace for Shaking (Surgeons, Dentists, Powerline Workers) Lower/Secure Crane Loads Evacuate Hazardous Areas
EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING APPLICATIONS AUTOMATED RESPONSES Slow or stop trains, traffic Close valves, gates Stop elevators Open firehouse doors Slow or stop machinery Close bridge gates California Integrated Seismic Network 25
M 7.8 Scenario Fault Rupture S-P time P-wave ~ 3.5 mi/sec S-wave ~ 2.0 mi/sec Rupture <2.0 mi/sec
Earthquake Begins M7.8 SoSAFZ Scenario
Stations Sense Shaking
ShakeAlert Detects Event Issues Alert Blind Zone (no warning) Up to 90 sec warning depending on distance.
Rupture Moves Up Fault
Strong Shaking Arrives Palm Springs
Strong Shaking Arrives San Bernardino
Strong Shaking Arrives Orange Co.
Finite Fault Problem P-wave ~ 3.5 mi/sec S-wave ~ 2.0 mi/sec Rupture <2.0 mi/sec
P-wave ~ 3.5 mi/sec S- wave ~ 2.0 mi/sec Rupture <2.0 mi/sec Finite Fault Problem
User Display ShakeOut M7.8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution
User Display ShakeOut M7.8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution
User Display ShakeOut M7.8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution
User Display ShakeOut M7.8 Real-time Finite Fault Solution
Major EEW System Components Sensor Networks Field telemetry Processing Alert Creation Alert Delivery User Actions
Reliable Notification Internet Direct radio, VSAT, etc. Private partner systems FEMA-IPAWS (TV, radio, cell) alert authority RBDS - FM radio project Mass notification companies Partner redistribution Cloud services, phone app Google, Twitter? Sensor Networks Field telemetry Processing Alert Creation Alert Delivery User Actions
Current CISN EEW Status Status: Next three years: Production Prototype Thanks to partnerships Receiving alerts today: >50 scientists CalEMA Google.org BART LA Metro Metrolink San Francisco DEM Amgen So Cal Edison UC Berkeley OEP L.A. City L.A. County Riverside Co. San Bernardino Co. more
Thank You!