Peak Oil: Myth or Not. Does the Free Market Trump Mother Nature? How the late M. King Hubbert applied geology, conservation of mass, and exponential growth to energy resources. What are coming consequences? Question for public discourse: How does scientific analysis become controversial and a subject of widespread skepticism? Modified after a presentation to PHYS 3333 The Scientific Method: Debunking Pseudoscience R.T. Gregory 11/05/2007
Non-renewable Resources A resource is a natural substance that can be exploited for a profit. Resources whose natural replenishment rates are slower than their rates of exploitation are considered to be non-renewable. Minerals (ore deposits), coal, oil and gas are produced by geologic processes and thus are finite and cannot be replenished on human timescales. Naturally-occurring hydrocarbons are sourced from the burial of surface-derived organic matter. A very small fraction of the biosphere is buried each year.
Commerical blue whale hunting ended in 1964 when less than 1000 were left! When a commodity becomes a resource, the rate of production grows exponentially, passes through a peak, and then precipitously declines until the resource is extinct or replaced by something else. Garrison (1995)
Human Relative and Absolute Timescales vs. Population Ever Increasing Domination of the Environment Human Population Date Time Required 1 billion 1850 all of human history 2 billion 1930 80 years 4 billion 1975 45 years 8 billion (projected) 2020 44 years Mackenzie (1998)
M. King Hubbert applied principles derived from mining geology concerning the life cycle of a nonrenewable resource to petroleum geology and scaled the analysis up to continents and the globe. Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
M.K. Hubbert, 1976, Bull. Assoc. Engr. Geol. The history of mining for metal Foster Hewett s, Lifecycle of a Non-renewable Resource. Ore deposits are chemical systems that obey Conservation of Mass.
Rate (10 9 barrels/yr) 18 10 2 P=P o e λt. λ is the growth rate Ln Rate 1880 1930 1980 30 10 1 0.1 0.01 (ln 2)/ λ is the doubling time. Hubbert (1977) Growth rate 7% Doubling time 10 yr 1880 1930 1980 M. King Hubbert plotted world production figures (the rate versus the time) and demonstrated that, on a semilog plot, a linear relationship exists between time and rate of production. This implies exponential growth. The rate X time= amount. The area under the curve on the left is the amount. For a non-renewable resource the amount is finite.
Hubbert s (1974) prediction as reproduced by the Economist Hubbert knew that there was a trade-off between the width of the peak (the sharpness) and the peak production rate. Nevertheless, the area under the curve represents the amount of the recoverable resource. The shape of the peak depends on the doubling time for consumption; the area under the curve must be the amount of the finite resource.
Increasing Q to ~3300 X 10 9, the current US Geological Survey estimate, only shifts the peak of production a decade or so & adds ~ 5 squares beneath the curve! Reserves 3 square difference: (2100-1350 =750) X 10 9 bbls Produced
Campbell & Lherrere (1998) The time from the first commercial oil well (1859) to the peak of domestic U.S. production was only about 110 years. The Age of Oil will last ~200 years!
Campbell & Lherrere (1998) Disruptions to Oil Supply: Arab Oil Embargoes of 1973 &1979 Burning Kuwait Oil Fields (1 st Gulf War)
The peak of US domestic production did not produce the catastrophy envisioned by some in 1970 s. Imports saved the day. Pinet (2003)
Largest Hydrocarbon Basins by Ultimate Potential Wagner, 2005
Global Giant Oil and Gas Fields Gas Oil Wagner, 2005
Naturallyoccurring hydrocarbons are sourced from the burial of surfacederived organic matter. Geology allows us to estimate the amount. Oil is essentially canned energy originally derived from the Sun. Garrison (1995)
Some Energy Terms A barrel of oil upon combustion delivers about 6 gigajoules energy. A joule/sec is a watt. Humans use about 30 billion barrels of oil per year for an energy use at a rate of 6 terawatts. The Sun delivers approximately 1300 W/m 2 compared to the geothermal output of ~60 milliwatts per meter square. The Earth puts out about 30 terawatts. 30,000 gigajoules per sec from geothermal energy. Exploitation of energy on a massive scale to conquer our environment has enabled our species to flourish.
Arab Oil Embargoes Year In 1993, oil supplied about 30% or our energy needs. The peak of U.S. domestic production (~1970) and OPEC pricing drove recession and inflation.
Our dependence on oil did not decrease, our imports did! Realistically, fossil fuels will continue to dominate as an energy source for several more decades. Source: DOE/EIA
Estimates of 21 st Century World Energy Supplies The optimistic view: Increasing the ultimate resource amount from 2100 X 10 9 to 3300 X 10 9 barrels only pushes the peak out a few decades. Petroleum Geoscientist Career Opportunities COAL Natural Gas Crude Oil 1900 2000 2100 YEAR Edwards 2001
Campbell & Lherrere (1998) Estimated from IEA (2007). When global production and demand reaches 30 X 10 9 barrels/yr, watch out!
Global Exploration Opportunities for Future Growth E. Canada GOM Venezuela Peru Brazil Argentina N. Sea Sakhalin Caspian Italy N Africa Vietnam Malaysia Papua New Indonesia Guinea Australia W. Africa W. Siberia Wagner, 2005
Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
Campbell & Lherrere (1998)
The Age of Oil coincides with the massive exponential growth of human population! Mackenzie (1998)
Hubbert s Prediction 1977 Ultimate level Sustainable? Near Extinction!
What s Next? When the peak of production is reached somewhat more half the oil is still in the ground. At best, we have a few decades to figure out the transition away from oil. We must understand the environmental consequences of our success. Exponential growth must be ephemeral. The 21 st century will be the Revenge of the Earth era!