12.març.2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba Cfinanciad pr Cfinanced by Lw grwth, institutins and the need fr a new reginal plicy Andrés Rdríguez-Pse Lndn Schl f Ecnmics 1
Sustained lw grwth 3 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba Sustained lw emplyment grwth 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 4 2
Tendency t underperfrm in the natinal cntext 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 5 Weaker institutins 6 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 3
Exp Statin, Seville Radial mtrways, Madrid AVE Tled-Albacete Castellón Airprt July 17, 20155:38 pm Spanish ghst airprt csting 1bn attracts ffer f just 10,000 Ciudad Real Airprt Tbias Buck in Madrid 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba A1 Mtrway Greece Frm 2000 t 2011, Italy received mre than $60 billin in the Eurpean Unin financing t underwrite a wide array f prgrams, in areas including agriculture and infrastructure, mst f it directed t the suth, with little but a half-cmpleted highway t shw fr it. Spain, which was given a little mre than US$100 billin, at least built a wrld-class high-speed rail netwrk. (Greece received 50 billin, an enrmus amunt in per capita terms, als t a clear effect.) Rachel Dnadi, NYT, Oct. 7, 2012 Mtrway Salern- Reggi Calabria 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 4
The middle incme-trap cnundrum Regins can enjy high grwth rates fr a certain number f years Befre experiencing a lng-term slwdwn Labur csts rise t a pint where ther regins becme mre attractive fr labur-intensive, lw-skill activities But they lack the advantages f richer regins in terms f: Prductivity Organisatins and business ecsystems Inventiveness and skills Stuck between a rck and a hard place And increasingly representing ne f the hardest challenges fr plicy 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba Plitical cnsequences thrugh the ballt bx 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 5
Has nthing been dne fr these areas? N Natinal level Welfare transfers Public emplyment Reginal level Past industrial plicy White elephants The real ecnmic ptential f these areas has nt been mbilised Plicies have ften prmted cllusin, crruptin and pr gvernment Perpetuating the impressin that there is n future This is massively resented 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba Public sectr emplyment 2016 % 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 France 0,00 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 GDP per capita 2015 % Public emplyment Public sectr emplyment 2016 % 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 Germany 0,00 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 GDP per capita 2015 % Spain United Kingdm Public sectr emplyment 2016 % 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP per capita 2015 % Public sectr emplyment 2016 % 40,00 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 GDP per capita 2015 % 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 6
USA Fiscal transfers UK Spain 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 13 Has nthing been dne fr these areas? Plicies fr regins in this middle-incme trap need t mve up the plicy agenda In rder t generate mre pprtunities in middle-incme trap regins T tap int untapped ecnmic ptential at Eurpean level And t preserve and enhance the develpment ptential elsewhere in Eurpe We need mre, nt less plicy But a different plicy Away frm simply prviding welfare Away frm sheltering less develped regins Away frm big, visible white elephants 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 7
Twards a different type f plicy Place-sensitive plicy Strngly based n thery and evidence But sensitive t the different cnditins f clubs f regins Aimed at tapping lcal ptential And enhancing the pprtunities f every territry (entrepreneurship, skills, absrptin f innvatin) Offering prtable skills Tackling institutinal inefficiencies and bttlenecks head n 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba Hw t g abut ding it? 12 març march 2018 Reitria da Universidade Nva de Lisba 8
OBRIGADO THANK YOU Cfinanciad pr Cfinanced by 9