April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 In This Issue: Page 2-5: Enhancing High-Hazard Weather Alerts to Travelers Page 6: Drought Summary Page 7: Southern US Temperature Summary for April Page 8: Southern US Precipitation Summary for April Page 9: Regional Climate Perspective in Pictures Page 10: Climate Perspectives and Station Summaries Page 11: Subtropical Storm Ana Kicks-Off 2015 Hurricane Season The is available at www.srcc.lsu.edu & www.southernclimate.org
Enhancing High-Hazard Weather Alerts to Travelers Putnam E. Reiter, Information Technology Officer at the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management High-hazard weather events present unique challenges when attempting to communicate notice and warnings in advance to the traveling public. The May 2013 tornadoes exemplified this challenge as multiple interstates were impacted by tornadoes on May 19th, May 20th, and May 31st. May 31st saw numerous vehicle related fatalities, with two on I-40 just west of El Reno. While reaching the traveling public is a focus, high-hazard weather notifications to the public at-large are also vital. Finding an appropriate and reliable communication method to reach travelers presents a problem. Traditionally, the main method of reaching travelers was through local broadcast radio. As satellite radio has become more popular, a growing number of travelers no longer listen to local radio. Oklahoma City radio broadcasters were a vital information link during the May 3, 1999, tornado that struck Bridge Creek, Oklahoma City, Moore, and Midwest City. Many local broadcasters carried television audio, thereby providing real-time weather information to travelers. The change in radio listening behavior and popularity of smart phones/tablets has further intensified competition for the public s attention. This is a two-sided issue as the public now has greater access to weather information than ever before. Another important fact to consider is that Oklahoma City is an intersection of three interstates (I-35, I-40 and I-44) and hosts a regional airport (Will Rogers World Airport). Therefore, alerts must reach travelers who are unfamiliar with tornadoes and safety actions. A Unique Messaging Idea The need to reach commuters and out of town travelers resulted in the proposal to make use of outdoor digital messaging signs. Several companies provide this service in Oklahoma City, although for the purposes of a pilot program it was thought that one company should be involved. Lamar Advertising agreed to work with the National Weather Service Office in Norman and the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) to develop the program. The initial concept was to display high-hazard weather alerts on Lamar s network of digital messaging billboards throughout Oklahoma City. There are 24 such billboards currently in operation. These billboards cover a large part of Oklahoma City from the outskirts of Norman, to south Edmond and Midwest City, to far western sections. Agreeing to launch the program was the easy part. The much more difficult decisions were how to formulate the message, when to activate the system, and especially which signs to activate. Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) is the focal point at NWS Office Norman for this project. During the development stages, several messaging concepts were proposed and subsequently sent to Lamar for the creation of mock-ups. These mock-ups were then sent by Rick to social scientists, who were asked to review the messages for clarity, intended public reaction, and, most importantly, likely public reaction. April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 2
After the mock-ups were approved, a policy was created to guide usage of the alerting system. The system is primarily used for high-hazard weather events. Severe weather is the initial focus point, so pre-event notification would focus on significant severe weather days where violent tornadoes are expected. The pre-event notification is divided into Stage 1 and Stage 2. Stage 1 may be used a day or more in advance of a high-hazard weather event. Stage 2 would be used on any given day where high-hazard weather is likely. Finally, Stage 3 would be used when a tornado warning is issued or a confirmed tornado is present in the Oklahoma City area encompassed by the Lamar signs. Figure 1 shows a few of the messages (called creatives by Lamar) that were developed. A numbering system was included to facilitate quick and non-confusing means to activate a given creative. Additionally, a standard color scheme and graphic was adopted, as approved by social scientists. The intended public reaction is to seek additional information through radio. It is well known that travelers will likely use smart phones or other devices, however this will soon be illegal and consequences of such messaging would be significant. Also, the messages are intended to keep the public from exiting the interstate en-masse or blocking the roadway. To prevent these issues from occurring, messages/ creatives are designed to not only get attention but to also prompt the driver to monitor local radio. The messages were also designed to consider travelers that may not be in the warned area and provide enough information to keep them from driving into the warned area. The final component in the project s policy was to determine activation authority. The members agreed that the National Weather Service would have primary activation responsibility for all three stages. However, should a Stage 3 event occur, OEM reserved the right to request system activation. E-Mail coordination among the members was used to ensure appropriate understanding of weather conditions and potential need for system activation. Opening Night March 25, 2015, started as any other day in Oklahoma. Parents dropped their kids off at school and went to work. By late morning, weather conditions started to look bad during Figure 1. Creative Messages and Numbers April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 3
Figure 2. Tornado Warning Message on March 25 the late afternoon and evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center had a moderate risk posted for parts of Oklahoma, and while the focus was on large hail, the potential for tornadoes did exist. Coordination between NWS and OEM yielded that the event did not reach the level of a Stage 2 message. However, if the need arose, a Stage 3 message would be used, assuming the tornado was within Lamar s viewing area. Storms developed west of Oklahoma City during the late afternoon hours as a cold front moved through central Oklahoma. A storm just south of El Reno exhibited supercell characteristics as it moved east into southern parts of Oklahoma City. As it moved into the city, a tornado was reported in western Oklahoma City. At this time, Oklahoma City sounded their outdoor warning sirens. Subsequently a tornado warning was issued for this area. A few minutes later, another tornado developed near SW 119th and Penn, which prompted an additional tornado warning that included Moore. OEM requested activation of Creative 54 when the second tornado warning was issued. During these events, two people within the activation chain were being impacted by the tornadoes. Despite needing to protect families, the creative was displayed on all Lamar signs in Oklahoma City, as shown in Figure 2, which is a web cam picture from that night. The system remained active for approximately two hours, after which the message was removed. Lamar Advertising provided details from each sign s display of the message, called Proof of Play as seen in Figure 3. A typical message is displayed for eight seconds with a rotation of about four to five messages per sign. Here We Go Again Figure 3. Proof of Play Results from March 25, 2015. May 6th was a similar setup where high-hazard weather was not anticipated but could not be ruled out either. Unlike the March 25th event, this day could require activation of a Stage 2 message. As with the first event, NWS and OEM coordinated about needing the signs and at what point they would be activated. As storms April 2014 Volume 5, Issue 4 4
Oklahoma City area. Additional creatives addressing flash flooding, winter weather, and fire weather will need to be developed. On May 8th Stage 1 creative was requested for Saturday by the NWS. This message was displayed until midnight. Weather conditions on Saturday changed significantly overnight and by morning high-hazard weather was no longer expected. NWS, OEM and Lamar all coordinated Saturday morning regarding these details but remained alert in case a Stage 3 message was needed. Conclusion Figure 4. Heads-Up Message on May 6, 2015. developed in southwest Oklahoma and moved towards central sections, NWS requested activation of Stage 2 pre-event message. This message is shown in Figure 4, taken by Jason Reince with Lamar. One of the lessons learned from the first activation was that e-mail is not a good coordination method. As such, a text message group was established connecting Lamar, NWS and OEM. The text message group was used for the first time May 6th to request Stage 2 preevent activation. A tornado struck Bridge Creek a short time later and the storm moved towards the Norman and Moore areas. NWS issued a rarely used Tornado Emergency as the storm approach. Subsequently message 54 was requested at 5:26pm and displayed by 5:37pm. The message remained active until 10:46pm. As the tornado threat persisted across Oklahoma City for several hours, a significant flash flooding threat developed. This prompted the first ever issuance of a Flash Flood Emergency for the While still very new and in the test stage, this pilot program has already shown great utility for reaching travelers. A few lessons learned have allowed for improvements in coordination and message delivery. Future enhancements will focus on additional messages/creatives, expansion of the program to Tulsa, and inclusion of other companies. Program guidelines require that participating companies yield copyright protection in the spirit of collaboration and public warning. This seminal project is a great example of public and private effort to enhance weather messaging to travelers. Project Members Rick Smith - Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Norman, OK. Jason Reince - Lamar Advertising Bill Condon - Lamar Advertising Keli Cain - Public Information Officer, Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management Putnam Reiter - EOC Manager, Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management April 2014 Volume 5, Issue 4 5
Drought Update Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center Drought conditions in the Southern Region improved significantly for the second consecutive month. Anomalously high precipitation has led to a large reduction in the areal coverage of extreme and exceptional drought. As of April 28, 2015, only 6.05 percent of the Southern Region was classified as extreme drought or worse, compared to 12.60 percent on March 31, 2015. Along the central Gulf coast, heavy rains have alleviated all drought conditions in southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Because of the large amount of lows and frontal systems that passed through the region in April, the number of severe weather events was extremely high. In fact, there were only a few days during the month where no severe weather was reported in the Southern Region. The most widespread severe weather occurred on the following days of the month: April 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 24, 26, and 27. On April 24, over a dozen tornadoes were reported covering three states: Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Fortunately no injuries or fatalities were listed. Baseballsized hail was reported in St. Martin, Louisiana, with wind gusts that were estimated at around 65 mph (104.61 kph). On April 27, classes at Louisiana State University were canceled when straight line winds associated with a squall line passed through Baton Rouge. Over 50,000 people were without power. Released Thursday, April 30, 2015 Anthony Artusa, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC Above: Drought conditions in the Southern Region. Map is valid for April 28, 2015. Image is courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center. April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 6
Temperature Summary Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center April was a warmer than normal month for all six states within the Southern Region. With the exception of just a small handful of stations in south western Texas, most stations averaged between 0 to 4 degrees F (0 to 2.22 degrees C). Temperatures averaged a bit higher in southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana, with stations reporting averages that were between 4 to 8 degrees F (2.22 to 4.44 degrees C) above the expected normals. The state-wide average temperatures for the month are as follows: Arkansas averaged 62.40 degrees F (16.89 degrees C), Louisiana averaged 69.90 degrees F (21.06 degrees C), Mississippi averaged 66.90 degrees F (19.39 degrees C), Oklahoma averaged 61.60 degrees F (16.44 degrees C), Tennessee averaged 60.10 degrees F (15.61 degrees C), and Texas averaged 66.60 degrees F (19.22 degrees C). For Louisiana, it was the twelfth warmest April on record (1895-2015), while Mississippi experienced its sixteenth warmest April on record (1895-2015). For Tennessee, it was the twenty-seventh warmest April (1895-2015), while both Oklahoma and Texas reported their twenty-ninth warmest April on record (1895-2015). Arkansas saw its thirty-fifth warmest April (1895-2015). Average April 2015 Temperature across the South Average Temperature Departures from 1971-2000 for April 2015 across the South April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 7
Precipitation Summary Luigi Romolo, Southern Regional Climate Center April was a wetter than normal month for all six states in the Southern Region. Precipitation totals varied spatially with each state showing some dryness in select counties/ parishes. A series of low pressure systems moved across the Gulf coast, bringing anomalous precipitation totals. Most stations in Southern Texas and Louisiana reported over one and a half times the normal allotment. Similar values were also observed in northern and eastern Texas and central Oklahoma. In the case of the latter, precipitation totals of over three times the monthly normal were observed. The state-wide average precipitation totals for the month are as follows with: Arkansas reporting 5.72 inches (145.29 mm), Louisiana reporting 8.21 inches (208.53 mm), Mississippi reporting 6.19 inches (157.23 mm), Oklahoma reporting 4.80 inches (121.92 mm), Tennessee reporting 5.72 inches (145.29 mm), and Texas reporting 3.91 inches (99.31 mm). The state of Louisiana reported its ninth wettest April on record (1895-2015), while for Texas it was their fifteenth wettest April (1895-2015). Oklahoma recorded its nineteenth wettest April, and for Tennessee, it was their twenty-sixth wettest April on record (1895-2015). The remaining state-wide rankings fell within the two middle quartiles. April 2015 Total Precipitation across the South Percent of 1971-2000 normal precipitation totals for April 2015 across the South April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 8
Regional Climate Perspective in Pictures April 2015 Temperature Departure from Normal from 1971-2000 for SCIPP Regional Cities April 2015 Percent of 1971-2000 Normal Precipitation Totals for SCIPP Regional Cities April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 9
Climate Perspective State temperature and precipitation values and rankings for April 2015. Ranks are based on the National Climatic Data Center s Statewide, Regional, and National Dataset over the period 1895-201 1. Station Summaries Across the South Station Summaries Across the South Temperatures Precipitation (inches) Station Name Averages Extremes Totals Max Min Mean Depart High Date Low Date Obs Depart %Norm El Dorado, AR 75.4 54.5 65.0 1.6 87 04/26+ 41 04/05 3.47-0.62 85 Little Rock, AR 74.8 54.7 64.7 2.6 87 04/09 43 04/04 5.43 0.29 106 Baton Rouge, LA 80.1 62.6 71.3 3.2 87 04/08+ 52 04/30+ 8.08 3.62 181 New Orleans, LA 80.8 66.4 73.6 4.5 86 04/10+ 56 04/30 11.97 7.36 260 Shreveport, LA 78.0 58.5 68.2 3.0 90 04/26 46 04/11 5.45 1.26 130 Greenwood, MS 76.3 55.9 66.1 2.7 87 04/08 41 04/05 6.40 1.27 125 Jackson, MS 77.9 58.8 68.3 4.2 88 04/26+ 46 04/05 3.75-1.21 76 Tupelo, MS 74.8 54.1 64.5 2.4 85 04/09 38 04/05 7.74 2.96 162 Gage, OK 73.3 44.9 59.1 2.3 93 04/08 25 04/04 5.60 3.86 322 Oklahoma City, OK 72.9 52.2 62.6 1.6 86 04/07 37 04/04 4.35 1.28 142 Ponca City, OK 73.2 49.9 61.5 3.1 91 04/07 25 04/04 2.20-1.24 64 Tulsa, OK 73.2 52.6 62.9 2.3 87 04/07 36 04/04 4.10 0.31 108 Knoxville, TN 71.2 50.8 61.0 2.2 84 04/09 31 04/05 4.14 0.13 103 Memphis, TN 74.5 55.8 65.2 2.3 85 04/09 44 04/05 3.07-2.43 56 Nashville, TN 72.8 51.4 62.1 3.1 85 04/08 34 04/05 6.33 2.33 158 Abilene, TX 78.0 55.3 66.7 2.1 93 04/02 40 04/29 2.18 0.54 133 Amarillo, TX 73.8 44.3 59.0 2.8 88 04/08 32 04/10 2.97 1.57 212 El Paso, TX 78.6 53.7 66.2 1.6 87 04/10+ 43 04/28+ 0.24 0.01 104 Dallas, TX 74.6 56.9 65.8 0.3 87 04/25 46 04/20 5.56 2.49 181 Houston, TX 80.6 64.3 72.5 3.0 88 04/25+ 52 04/29 6.10 2.79 184 Midland, TX 79.3 52.9 66.1 1.9 91 04/07 38 04/29 1.30 0.65 200 San Antonio, TX 79.8 63.5 71.7 2.4 91 04/25 49 04/29 7.54 5.44 359 Summary of temperature and precipitation information from around the region for April 2015. Data provided by the Applied Climate Information System. On this chart, depart is the average s departure from the normal average, and % norm is the percentage of rainfall received compared with normal amounts of rainfall. Plus signs in the dates column denote that the extremes were reached on multiple wdays. Blueshaded boxes represent cooler than normal temperatures; redshaded boxes denote warmer than normal temperatures; tan shades represent drier than normal conditions; and green shades denote wetter than normal conditions. April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 10
Subtropical Storm Ana Kicks-Off 2015 Hurricane Season Barry Keim, Louisiana State Climatologist, Louisiana State University Last week, the National Hurricane Center named the first storm of the 2015 Hurricane Season and it was called Subtropical Storm Ana (Figure 1). Fortunately, this storm was located a far piece from Da Parish! The storm was called subtropical because it had characteristics common to both tropical storms, and extratropical storms (like Nor easters). What this means is that these storms do not consist entirely of humid tropical air, but rather have a combination of tropical air and some cooler and drier air from the mid-latitudes. This affects the dynamics within the storm, whereby the driving forces in these storms are not entirely driven by evaporation and condensation like that is a pure tropical system. Furthermore, these storms also include some temperature and moisture differences between opposing airmasses e.g., air off of the Gulf vs. that from the Great Plains. The National Hurricane Center recognized the problem of these hybrid storms long ago, and at first they did not know how to classify them. However, they settled in on calling them subtropical storms and began including them in 1972 along with all the other tropical storms in a season. While May storms are not common problems for the National Hurricane Center heck, hurricane season doesn t officially begin until June 1st - they are far from unprecendented. Since 1851, the North Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf, has experienced 44 May tropical and subtropical storms, and even a May hurricane or two. Most recently, in 2012, we had two tropical storms in May Alberto and Beryl! This year, Subtropical Storm Ana certainly represents an early start to the 2015 hurricane, but does it serve as a harbinger of what is yet to come during the rest of the season? To that, I would answer probably not. Only time will tell, but remember that our early season forecast from Philip Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University said that this season should be relatively quiet, and perhaps even historically quiet. If we re lucky, and this storm season actually lives up to the early forecast, this season could be one of the most most quiet experienced in many decades, even despite this early and eerie start. Do I hear an AMEN? If you have any questions, feel free to contact me at keim@lsu.edu. Figure 1. Subtropical Storm Ana on May 8, 2015. Image is from the United States Naval Research Laboratory and can be found at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ tc_home.html. April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 11
Southern Climate Monitor Team Monthly Comic Relief Luigi Romolo, Regional Climatologist Southern Regional Climate Center (LSU) Gina Fujan, Student Assistant SCIPP (OU) Margret Boone, Program Manager SCIPP (OU) Hal Needham, Program Manager SCIPP (LSU) Contact Us To provide feedback or suggestions to improve the content provided in the Monitor, please contact us at monitor@southernclimate.org. We look forward to hearing from you and tailoring the Monitor to better serve you. You can also find us online at www.srcc.lsu.edu & www.southernclimate.org. Copyright 2015 Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma; Louisiana State University For any questions pertaining to historical climate data across the states of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, or Tennessee, please contact the Southern Regional Climate Center at 225-578-5021. For questions or inquiries regarding research, experimental tool development, and engagement activities at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, please contact us at 405-325-7809 or 225-578-8374. April 2015 Volume 5, Issue 4 12