On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães sullyandro@gmail.com Alexandre Araújo Costa Domingo Cassain Sales Universidade Estadual do Ceará
Context and Motivations CORDEX Simulations How to choose the best model or best models? CMIP3 and CMIP5 evaluation over Central America, Amazon, Northeast Brazil and Caribbean
Key question: Why my students would look at CMIP3 and CMIP5 over the Caribbean (but not over the Amazon or other parts of our CORDEX domain)? Few studies over that region? Are they aware of the difficulties in articulating studies among People from the many insular countries? Are they looking for a job (or at least some vacation) over there?
Caribbean climate Hot throughout the year, with a typical Mid Summer Drought (MSD). Tempered by trade winds in local areas. Hurricane season from July to November. Despite greater precipitation during storms and other peak periods, more frequent and longer droughts are expected in parts of the Caribbean this century (Bueno et al 2008).
Climate changes projected for the Caribbean Higher temperatures Sea level rise Increased hurricane intensity
Projected by IPCC (SPECIAL REPORT, 2012) Likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. Likely increase in average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase. Projected sea level rise is expected to further compound tropical cyclone surge impacts.
Model resolution (degrees) LIMITS: LONGITUDE=86W:60W LATITUDE=24N:14N CMIP3 R < 1,25 1,25 < R <3 3 < R MIROC3.2-HR CGCM3.1-HR ECHO-G CGCM3.1-MR GISS-AOM 1 model CNRM-CM3 GISS-EH CSIRO-Mk3.0 GISS-ER FGOALS-g1.0 HadCM3 GFDL-CM2.0 INM-CM3.0 GFDL-CM2.1 IPSL-CM4 HadGEM1 MIROC3.2-MR 7 models MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2 NCCCSM3 NCPCM BCCR-BMC2.0 14 models CMIP5 R < 1,25 1,25 < R <3 3 < R ACCESS1-0 CanCM4 HadCM3 CCSM4 FGOALS-g2 IPSL-CM5A-LR EC-EARTH FGOALS-s2 MIROC4h GFDL-CM3 2 models MRI-CGCM3 GFDL-ESM2G GFDL-ESM2M 5 models HadGEM2-ES HadGEM2-CC IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC5 MIROC-ESM-CHEM MIROC-ESM MPI-ESM-LR CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 CNRM-CM5 CanESM2 Bcc-csm1-1 Inmcm4 16 models
CMIP3 Precipitation 7 6 CORREL: 0,85 to 1 Annual Cycle Caribbean ( 1961-1990 ) Correlation analysis Precipitation (mm/day) 5 4 3 2 1 0 CGMR FGOALS GIER HADCM3 cru gpcp Precipitation (mm/day) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CORREL: LESS THAN 0,6 CNCM3 GFCM21 INCM3 MIHR MIMR cru Precipitation (mm/day) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CORREL: 0,6 to 0,85 BCM2 CGHR CSMK3 ECHOG GFCM20 GIAOM GIEH HADGEM IPCM4 MPEH5 MRCGCM NCCCSM NCPCM cru 0 gpcp 0 gpcp
CMIP5 Precipitation Annual Cycle of Daily Precipitation Caribbean ( 1961-1990 ) Correlation analysis Precipitation (mm/day) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CORREL: 0,85 to 1 CNRM CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 HadCM3 ACCESS1-0 HadCM3 HadGEM2- CC MRI-CGCM3 cru gpcp Precipitation (mm/day) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CORREL: LESS THAN 0,6 MIROC-ESM- CHEM CCSM4 EC-EARTH FGOALS-s2 GFDL-ESM2G GFDL-ESM2M MIROC4h MPI-ESM-LR MIROC-ESM cru gpcp Precipitation (mm/day) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CORREL: 0,6 to 0,85 CanESM2 CanCM4 HadGEM2- ES inmcm4 IPSL-CM5A- LR IPSL-CM5A- MR EC-EARTH FGOALS-g2 MPI-ESM- LR cru gpcp
CMIP3 Temperature Annual Cycle Caribbean ( 1961-1990 ) Correlation analysis GIER ( 0,967 ) MRCGCM ( 0,962 ) GIAOM ( 0,955 ) INCM3 ( 0,935 ) MIHR ( 0,934 ) NCCCSM ( 0,925 ) IPCM4 ( 0,919 ) CSMK3 ( 0,910 ) GFCM20 ( 0,905 ) FGOALS ( 0,902 ) ECHOG ( 0,889 ) BCM2 ( 0,887 ) MPEH5 ( 0,882 ) GFCM21 ( 0,879 ) GIEH ( 0,875 ) HADGEM ( 0,87 ) NCPCM ( 0,869 ) CGHR ( 0,862 ) MIMR ( 0,843 ) CGMR ( 0,829 ) CNCM3 ( 0,822 ) Temperature ( C ) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Temperature ( C ) 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 CORREL: 0,85 to 1 CORREL: 0,6 to 0,85 CGMR CNCM3 MIMR cdc CGHR CSMK3 ECHOG FGOALS GFCM20 GFCM21 GIAOM GIEH GIER HADCM3 HADGEM INCM3 IPCM4 MIHR
CMIP5 Temperature Annual Cycle of Daily Temperature - Caribbean ( 1961-1990 ) Correlation analysis CanESM2 29 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 CORREL: 0,85 to 1 IPSL-CM5A-LR 28 ACCESS1-0 ACCESS1-0 ( 0,951 ) CanCM4 MRI-CGCM3 ( 0,950 ) MIROC4h ( 0,944 ) 27 CCSM4 EC-EARTH HadCM3 ( 0,943 ) EC-EARTH ( 0,929 ) CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 ( 0,928 ) MIROC5 ( 0,911 ) CCSM4 ( 0,908 ) IPSL-CM5A-LR ( 0,898 ) HadGEM2-CC ( 0,897 ) GFDL-ESM2G ( 0,892 ) CanCM4 ( 0,881 ) GFDL-ESM2M ( 0,87854 ) Temperature ( C ) 26 25 24 23 FGOALS-s2 GFDL-ESM2G GFDL-ESM2M HadCM3 HadGEM2-CC IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC4h MIROC5 MIROC-ESM-CHEM MPI-ESM-LR ( 0,87851 ) MIROC-ESM-CHEM ( 0,872 ) 22 MIROC-ESM MPI-ESM-LR IPSL-CM5A-MR ( 0,871 ) CanESM2 ( 0,868 ) MIROC-ESM ( 0,865 ) FGOALS-s2 ( 0,852 ) 21 MRI-CGCM3 cdc
Conclusions Spread among observational datasets in this region. We need better validation data for our models Reasonable representation of major characteristics of precipitation and temperature annual cycle over the Caribbean (including MSD) Improvement of this representation from CMIP3 to CMIP5 (phase errors diminished) No clear relationship between model resolution and model skill for the features we analyzed Also, no clear relationship between model complexity and model skill Future work will include CORDEX regional models in this analysis along with the other WCRP initiatives Based on some of the slide backgrounds, you may think on a good answer for the key question
Referências Bueno, R. et al. 2008 The Caribbean and Climate Change: The costs of inaction. Report prepared by Tufts University and the Stockholm Environment Institute. IPCC - Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation