The Drought of 2012 and Outlook for 2013: A NIDIS Update Roger S. Pulwarty NIDIS NIDIS Implementation Team, NB, KS, CO, CA, AZ, SD, WA NASA, NOAA, USGS, USDA, 1
Three tasks under the NIDIS Act (PL 109-430) (I) Provide an effective drought early warning system: (a) collect and integrate key indicators of drought severity and impacts; and (b) produce timely information that reflect local, regional, and State differences; (II) Coordinate and integrate as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system (III) Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships 2
2012 Jul 62.8 Aug 60.0 Nov 60.0 December 61.8 July 3, 2012 Over 60% of the contiguous United States in early September was suffering moderate to exceptional drought, nearly twice the land the previous year Most expansive drought since1934 YEAR /MONTH % Area DRY 1934 May 73.1 Jun 74.1 Jul 79.9 Aug 77.5 Sep 70.2 Oct 67.7 1939 Dec 62.1 1954 Jul 60.4 Dec 59.5
How did we get here? Status and antecedent conditions 2010 Is this drought like others? Why has it been dry/drier than normal? What are the impacts and where did they occur? 2011 What information is being provided and by whom? How bad might it get and how long will it last? Are information needs being met? 2012 How are we planning for this year and 4 for longer-term risks and opportunities?
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April 11, 2013 6
1930s 1950s October 31, 2012 2002 7
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index 1934 6-month through June 2012 6-month through June 8
Blue 1930s Red 2008-12 The drought has shown farmers the value of the Ogallala Aquifer and the need to make sure it is available into the future. Governor's 2012 water policy legislation...to conserve and extend this vital resource that supports the entire western third of Kansas. Gov. Brownback KS 2012 T. Streeter KS Water Office
Drought Early Warning-Useful monitoring regions for the US Southwest Cold PDO NAO warm AMO Improved monitoring and projections of the ocean will be critical for the future predictions of drought in the semi-arid West. Precipitation 10
NIDIS Regional Early Warning Information Systems 2-3 yrs 30 DAYS (www.drought.gov) 1-4 SEASONS SHORT-TERM- Seasonal >1 YEAR 10 YEARS 30 YEARS DECADE-TO- CENTURY 100 YEARS 11
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/drought_web inar_registration.php 12
Regional Outlooks- NOAA-WGA MoU Montana Chesapeak Missouri e Bay Oklahoma Western Govs-NIDIS Regional Outlook 13
Drought Portal Regional Pages 2012
Landscape changes- Tribal Lands in the Four-Corners Region (USGS, NIDIS) Sand Dune Mobility = W/(P/PE) Stable Sand Dunes = P/PE > 0.31 Partly Active Dunes Fully Active Dunes = P/PE< 0.125 15
California NIDIS Pilot Activities Klamath River Basin: integrated information system for hydroclimate data Russian River: hydrologic extremes with droughts draining reservoirs and precipitation events filling reservoirs Southern California: complexities of urban droughts in a wellplumbed system, reliant on imported water Central Valley: remote sensing to assess extent of fallowed land
Million Gallons 1-May 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May 19-May 20-May 21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 25-May 26-May 27-May 28-May 29-May 30-May 31-May 1-Jun 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun 8-Jun 9-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun Rio Grande Runs Dry May 12, 2012 The fight for water in New Mexico New York Times, 27 March, 2013 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Resources Used May June 2012 Desalination Plant Stored Pond Water El Paso Water Surface Water Groundwater 17 Utilities Board
Thanks to Kevin Grode (USACE) for these slides Missouri River Basin Inter-Agency Proposal for an Expanded Plains Snow and Basin Conditions Network National Water and Climate Center - NRCS Hydrologic Engineering Center
NIDIS Early Warning Pilot for the Missouri Basin 2012 Drought Assessment Causes, Impacts, Service Improvement State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Centers, NDMC and NOAA Draft this summer 2013 for AASC conference (St. Louis) finalized by end of Sept NIDIS and NCDC co-sponsored, NIDIS funded NDMC and NCDC funded the SCs (14 of them) and 2 RCCs Missouri Basin Prediction and 2011 Flood Attribution Studies USACE sponsored done by NOAA ESRL/PSD Final Drafts by September 2013 for USACE review, public by end of 2013 2012 Drought Attribution Study NOAAESRL/PSD this spring Great Plains & Midwest Drought Webinars Presented by State Climate offices Since July 2012 will continue indefinitely WGA, states, governors offices, private interests (ag., commodities, insurance), tribes, academia, water supply folks, media Formal evaluation of effectiveness w/nidis funds (2013) done by NDMC and South Dakota SC
Goals To understand the extent of 2012 drought impacts and response in 2012, and help provide new information and coordination for improving the nations drought readiness for 2013 and in the future Increase public awareness of this year s drought and potential impacts for next year Technical assistance Ensure sustained support for monitoring, streamgages and other data Outreach with impacted communities Conservation plans 20
Time 09:30 AM Location 328A Russell Senate Office Building Witnesses: Dr. Joe Glauber, chief economist, USDA; Dr. Roger Pulwarty, NIDIS, NOAA Leon LaSalle, rancher, Havre, MT; Anngie Steinbarger, farmer, Edinburgh, IN; Jeff Send, cherry farmer, Leelanau, MI. 21
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Drought is forecast to persist for much of the West and expand across northern California and southern Oregon Prospects for improvement decrease further south across the southern high Plains and Texas Persist or develop across the Florida peninsula-likely short-lived as the rainy 24 season typically begins during June
Atmospheric rivers: producing extreme rainfall and flooding These color images represent satellite observations of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans. Warm colors = moist air, Cool colors = dry air ARs can be detected with these data due to their distinctive spatial pattern. In the top panel, the AR hit central California and produced 18 inches of rain in 24 hours. From Ralph et al. 2011, Mon. Wea. Rev. In the bottom panel, the AR hit the Pacific Northwest and stalled, creating over 25 inches of rain in 3 days.
The next few months P T March to April 2013 P T AMJ 2013 26
National Governors Association Meeting 24-27 February, 2013 27
Monitoring, Prediction, Use Improved satellite estimates and in situ measurements of soil moisture (SMAP) and soil moisture netowrk Estimates of Ground water/surface water interactions during drought Near real time attribution of drought Role of the sea surface temperatures in the various ocean basins Improved understanding of how decadal variability (PDO, AMO) are impact year to year droughts-improving forecast reliability Comprehensive assessment of the underlying predictability of surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and stream flow on monthly to decadal time scales Analysis of significant past events 28
Percent Compare your readiness for drought before 2002 with today 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Actions Taken as a Result of NIDIS 29
Are we better off? The number of states and other institutions with improved capacity to inform risk management and reduce exposure to drought and flood risks The number of staff in or working with those institutions trained to develop and communicate local drought information and help reduce impacts The number of research projects that conduct and update drought impacts and user needs assessments in droughtsensitive parts of the US and The percentage of the U.S. population covered by adequate drought risk and early warning information systems
July 24, 2012 Really due to- Bob Rose Texas- LCRA 9/20/2012- S.3584 A bill to reauthorize NIDIS and for other purposes. Sponsor: Sen Pryor, Mark L. [AR], D.Moran (KS) (introduced 9/20/2012) Cosponsors Pryor, Moran Boren (1) Referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Hon. L. Smith, TX)
NIDIS Reauthorization S. 376: Drought Information Act of 2013 113 th Congress, 2013 2015. Feb 25, 2013 (Introduced) Mr. PRYOR (AR), Mr. MORAN (KS), Mr. THUNE (SD), Mr. UDALL (NM), and Mr. UDALL (CO) referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation A BILL To reauthorize the National Integrated Drought Information System, and for other purposes 33
NIDIS Drought Information Partners: (Federal, States, Tribes, Urban, other) Monitoring & Forecasting Drought Impacts Assessments and Scenarios Early Warning Information in support of drought risk management Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation 34
Thank you National and Regional Outlooks Drought.gov 35
Monitoring Improved satellite estimates of snow amount (e.g., SWE) Improved satellite estimates and in situ measurements of soil moisture (SMAP) and soil moisture netowrk Estimates of Ground water/surface water interactions during drought Near real time attribution of drought 36
Prediction Role of the sea surface temperatures in the various ocean basins the strength and nature of the remote connections between SST and regional hydrology how do the impacts of SSTs in the various ocean basins interact to enhance/reduce predictability on regional scales? Improved understanding of how decadal variability (PDO, AMO) are impacting (will impact) year to year droughts-improving forecast reliability Comprehensive assessment of the underlying predictability of surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and stream flow on monthly to decadal time scales Analysis of significant past events 37
Iowa Drought Actions 2012 Coordination between state government and partners in private sector Suspension of state laws to assist agriculture producers Rural water systems monitoring Burn bans issued for 2/3 of Iowa Aflatoxin watch Water allocation statute 38 Photos: Iowa Soybean Association
Grains and oilseeds dominate the southbound traffic, accounting for roughly half of the nearly 80 million metric tons of cargo (22 percent of which is coal) moving southward through this section of the river. Twenty percent of the northbound traffic is coal, 21 percent is from the fertilizer sector The Corps of Engineers - Low water levels December through February for this section of the Mississippi between -6.5 and -7 feet -- well below the level for minimum navigation Some spring snowmelt flooding northern Missouri tributaries...but less than normal Missouri navigation season flows 50% chance- less than 2012 39
Modeling Predictions and Projections Drought Task Force Research Who/What -A multi-agency/multi-institution group of 30-plus MAPP Investigators research involving CTB - Research projects exploring improved methodologies for drought monitoring (e.g. remote sensing) and prediction (e.g. NMME) Roles - Providing focus, coordination and leadership to drought research in support of NIDIS -Extending NOAA s research capability via external collaborations -Improving NOAA operations via CTB -Contributing/leveraging International efforts (GDIS) Drought Task Force Advancing U.S. drought monitoring and prediction Broad Priorities - To define and apply metrics to evaluate advances - A case study approach to assess current monitoring and prediction capability - To incorporate research advances in an experimental drought system
Support cross-regional efforts to assess user needs, test drought-focused decision support tools Identify socio-economic effects of drought, data and info needs of resource managers and policy/decision makers PL109-430 Coping with Drought Research Evaluate and transition drought information products to operations Regional Climate Centers State Climatologists Drought Monitor