Regional climate extremes in Northern Eurasia associated with atmospheric blockings: Interannual variations and tendencies of change I.I. Mokhov 1, M.G. Akperov 1, A.R. Lupo 2, A.V. Chernokulsky 1 and A.V. Timazhev 1,3 1 A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow,Russia 2 University of Missouri Columbia, MO, USA 3 M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia mokhov@ifaran.ru AGU-2011
Surface temperature anomalies in January-2010 and July-2010 (relative to 1951-1980) by GISS data Surface temperature annual-mean trends in Russia (1976-2010) by Roshydromet data
Blocking characteristics (X) from model simulations for different seasons and regions: Ratio X(2CO 2 ) to X(1CO 2 ) Euro-Atlantic region Number Duration Intensity Size Blocking days Total action NH continents Number Duration Intensity Size Blocking days Total action January-March 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 January March 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 4.1 April-June 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 April-June 4.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 4.8 4.6 (Lupo, Oglesby and Mokhov, 1997; Mokhov, 2006)
Interannual variations in May-July for European part of Russia (1891-2010) 60 50 40 30 20 10 y = 0.0625x - 104.35 R 2 = 0.0251 0 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 D y = -0.0226x + 98.279 R 2 = 0.0096 30 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 y = 0.0067x - 13.05 R 2 = 0.0489 Drought Index Precipitation Temperature -3 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 dt Q Drought Index Precipitation Precipitation Normilized precipitation D Q 60 50 40 30 20 10 y = 10.859x + 16.457 R 2 = 0.7036 0-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 dt Temperature y = -4.0398x + 54.713 R 2 = 0.2875 Temperature 30-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 (Mokhov et al., 2005; dt Mokhov et al., 2011) 1.6 European Russia IPSL-CM2 Model IPSL-CM 2 regr. 1.4 Observations Observations Observations regr. 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Temperature middle latitudes May-June-July 1891-1995 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Relative trends (%/100 yrs) in JJA (left column) and DJF (right column) precipitation (upper panels), precipitaion intensity (middle panels) and wet day probability (bottom panels) by simulations for the 21 st century with anthropogenic scenario JJA DJF precipitation Intensity Probability (Semenov, Bengtsson, 2002)
Changes (%) in seasonal precipitation characteristics of precipitation between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000 from multi-model simulations (CMIP3) with SRES- A1B scenario for different river basins in the Northern Eurasia: а) total amount, b) intensity and c) probability (1 Winter, 2 Spring, 3 Summer, 4 - Fall). а) b) Volga Ob Yenisei Lena Amur c) (Mokhov, Khon, 2007)
Methods of blockings identification Method I modified Lejenas-Okland index. LO=Z42.5 0 -Z60.0 0 (LO(1-10 0 )+LO(1)+LO(1+10 0 ))/3<0 Z-500 hpa geopotential height Method II [http://solberg.snr.missouri.edu/gcc/]. Method III The anticyclone area is defined as closed isobar at 500 hpa; Lifetime - more than 5 days. Datasets: 500 hpa geopotential data (6 hour resolution) from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2010) and NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2 (1871-2008) Data for blockings characteristics (1969-2010) [http://solberg.snr.missouri.edu/gcc/].
Interannual variations of blokings number in the Northern Hemisphere obtained with the use of different methods for their detection (II and III) and from different reanalyses data (I, II, III) (normalized on mean values for 1961-1990) 2.0 1.8 1.6 Method I Method III Method II I - NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2 Annual (since 1871) II - NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (since 1948) III - NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (since 1948) 1.4 N/<N> 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year (Akperov et al., 2010)
Blocking-days variations in summer over Euro-Atlantic region from model IPSL CM4 simulations (CMIP3) with different SRES scenarios (AIB and A2) and with different modifications (I and II) of blocking identification method 70 60 2010 Лето I (SRES-AIB and SRES-A2) Δλ=11 o 50 40 30 A1B A2 20 10 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 2062 2065 2068 2071 2074 2077 2080 2083 2086 2089 2092 2095 2098 80 70 2010 Лето II (SRES-A1B and SRES-A2) Δλ=7.5 o 60 50 40 A1B A2 30 20 10 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 2053 2056 2059 2062 2065 2068 2071 2074 2077 2080 2083 2086 2089 2092 2095 2098 (Mokhov et al., 2010; Mokhov et al., 2011)
D, % Interannual 6 0 variation of drought index (D,%) in May-July in the 4 0 2 0 European part of Russia using model simulations for the anthropogenic scenario SRES-A2 for the XXI century 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 1 0 0 Y e a r E a s t e r n E u r o p e 6 0 5 0 4 0 D, % 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 1 0 0 Y e a r (Mokhov et al., 2005)
Forest Fire Risk (Nesterov Index) in Summer from Simulations with MGO Regional Climate Model (1991-2000) Relative changes between (1991-2000) and (2091-2100) (SRES-A2 scenario) (Mokhov, Chernokulsky and Shkolnik, 2006, 2010)
Regional effects associated with El-Nino phenomena a Caspian Sea level changes, m Changes in Caspian Sea basin b а b SOI index anomalies (XII-III) (3-years moving mean) Euro-Atlantic region Blocking days (Arpe, Bengtsson, Golitsyn, Mokhov, Semenov, Sporyshev, 2000) Anomalies in the blocking-days number and total blockings action in Euro-Atlantic region in El-Nino/La-Nina years (like 2010) El-Nino years 1.07 La-Nina years 1.06 (Wiedenmann, Lupo, Mokhov and Tikhonova, 2002) Euro-Atlantic region Total blockings action El-Nino years 1.02-1.04 La-Nina years 1.15-1.19 (Mokhov, 2006)
Coherency of climate variations in European and West Asian Russian regions in May-July: а) temperature, b) precipitation, c) drought index а) b) c) (Mokhov et al., 2011)
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