Severe Weather 2014: Predictions and Best Practices with WDT Mickey'Lee' Meteorologist/Business.Development'' ' David'Gold,'Ph.D.,' Senior.Scien5st/Forecaster' ' WDT. Claudia'Dent' VP,.Product.Management. ' Everbridge'
Agenda What s in store for the upcoming season Best practices for leveraging forecast data Solving severe weather communication challenges Q&A LinkedIn Member? Join our LinkedIn Everbridge Incident Management Professionals Group
Mickey'Lee' Meteorologist/Business# Development## WDT. David'Gold,'Ph.D.' Senior#Scien2st/# Forecaster# WDT. Claudia'Dent' VP#Product# Management# Everbridge.
6. Where WDT is Located Research Campus School of Meteorology. Norman, Oklahoma. Private Industry.
The WDT Team The Intersection of Talents Meteorology Computer Science Who Are We?. 85+ Employees Rapid 2014 Expansion 40+ PhD, Masters 4 Certified Consulting Mets AMS Fellow Leaders in Weather Tech. Business
What we do... Global Weather Analytics - Forecasts - Data.
Nearly 90% of all presidentially declared disasters are weather related, leading to around 500 deaths per year and 14-billion in damage.
At an August 2011 outdoor concert by Sugarland at the Indiana State Fair, a severe thunderstorm wind gust hit the stage's temporary roof structure, causing it to collapse. The structure landed among a crowd of spectators, killing seven people and injuring 58 others.
Ensure your organization is StormReady! WDT is your StormReady implementation-consulting expert. National Weather Service program outlining a detailed plan of the procedures that are to be taken in the event of dangerous weather.
Every year, the National Weather Service (NWS) collects some 76 billion observations and issues approximately 1.5 million forecasts and 50,000 warnings.
The USA has more tornadoes than any other country in the world, averaging around 1200 a year. This is due largely to its unique geography, which forms an area in central USA called Tornado Alley which is frequently hit by tornadoes.
TornadoTra x Expert meteorologists generated Tornado reports utilizing: Damage surveys & assessments NEXRAD Doppler Radar data
Use Case A Business Continuity Solution THE CHALLENGE Monitoring 13,000 store locations worldwide from a Security Operations Center in Chicago. Tornadoes and Severe Weather create large impacts. Concern is employees and customer safety, securing drugs, and refrigeration of $500k of drugs in each store. OUR SOLUTION Provide imap Pro with all store locations on a single interactive map as well as proprietary analytics that provide nowcasts regarding tornadoes and the location of existing damage for their first response efforts. Gives them 30-60 minutes for each store to make decision on closing or not, evacuating or not, and what to do about drugs.
Creating Value Better Guidance through Better Science Applied Meteorology for Business Expert forecasts provide significant value to energy, agriculture and weather derivatives traders and hedgers Day 7 Next Season The Most Advanced Modeling System Days 2-7 Strategic weather decision support for off-shore operations, retail supply chains, business continuity Decision Support by Expert Mets Proprietary Alerting Engine Patented alerting for safe operations, sheltering of people and assets; safety for outdoor events Decision Analytics and Demographics Offering value to first responders, disaster recovery, contractors, insurance, and re-insurance Next 24 Hours Now - 4 Hours Forensics Precise information dissemination that supports evacuation efforts and staging of infrastructure and safety crews
Augmented Warnings Add Threat and Timing Information Phenomena-based Algorithm Only 1 user really threatened No Alert 2210Z 2240Z 2240Z Extreme Tornado Threat NWS Active Warning Expires at 5:45 PM Tornado located 8 miles west of your location, moving east at 27 mph Arrives at 4:57 PM Moderate Tornado Threat NWS Active Warning Expires at 5:45 PM Tornado located 36 miles WNW of your location, moving east at 27 mph Earliest arrival 5:40 PM
WeatherOps Suite of Services imappro: Geo Spatial Business Intelligence 24/7 Met Support Content Layers Feeds
2014 Severe Storm Season An.overview.of.key.factors.
Adjusted tornado counts since 1953 2013.record.low. annual.total highly. anomalous!.
Top and Bottom 8 Recent U.S. Tornado Seasons Year' TOP' Number' (Adj)' BOTTOM' Rank' Year' Number' (Adj)' 1990. 921. 14. 1985. 626. 53. 1991. 1087. 3. 1986. 638. 51. 1998. 1021. 6. 1987. 447. 59. 1999. 898. 15. 1988. 381. 60. 2003. 1074. 4. 2002. 498. 58. 2004. 972. 9. 2005. 646. 49. 2008. 1063. 5. 2006. 655. 48. 2011. 1276. 1. 2012. 549. 57. Adjusted.March[ Note:#Rows#highlighted#in#blue#are#El#Nino#trending#years# June.mean:.791. and#in#red#are#la#nina#trending#years# Rank'
A number of ingredients must come together for big severe weather outbreaks Note:&the& clash&of&the&air& masses &hypothesis&is&a& MYTH!&It s&the&ver<cal& SUPERPOSITION&of&air& masses&that&macers!& 1. Strong.winds.with.westerly. component.aloi,.transpor5ng. cold.air.aloi.over.affected. area. 2. Rich.moisture.at.low[levels. transported.beneath.the.cold. air.aloi. 3. Desert.air.transported.over. the.impacted.region.below. the.cold.air.aloi. 4. These.air.flows.at.the.various. al5tudes.are.highly.sheared,. causing.air.flowing.into.the. storms.that.do.develop.to. rotate.and.result.in.supercell. forma5on.
Some patterns during and preceding most active tornado seasons and compared to March-to-date During:.Strong.low.pressure. center.over.nw.u.s..with. Southeast[centered.high.(more# typical#of#years#with#la#ninaelike# atmospheric#circula2on# characteris2cs). Feb[Mar.prior:.Warm.sea.surface. temperatures.(ssts).gulf.and.nw. Caribbean (BELOW).very.warm.SSTs. presently.exist.across.the.se.gulf[ Caribbean. Feb[Mar.prior:.Strong.subtropical.jet. stream.across.southwest.u.s.so.far.this. March.(BELOW),.nearly.opposite.pacern. aloi.across.pacific.and.u.s.!.note.the. ridge.nr.w.coast. *#SUBTROPICAL#JET#HAS# EMERGED#IN#PAST#WEEK#
Does ENSO have any effect on U.S. tornado activity? As.confirmed.by.several.other.studies,.there. is.no.linear.correla5on;.however.there.is.a. difference.in.mean.adjusted.march[june.u.s.. tornado.numbers.between.la.nina.and.el. Nino.years.(note#different#heights#of#black# lines#for#both#groups). Re[sampling.of.the.two.means.and.es5mate.of. their.sampling.distribu5on. confirms.lower. overall.tornado.numbers.for.el.nino.vs.la.nina. years.
A couple of big events can define a season A.few.days.prior.to.the.most.violent.tornado. period.of.2013.(recall:#this#year#set#the#new#alle 2me#record#for#lowest#adjusted#tornado# ac2vity) jet.stream.extends.across.pacific.to. the.nw.u.s..coast. During.the.period,.the.jet.breaks.down.and.a. strong.migratory.trough.develops.over.the. Rockies,.facilita5ng.emergence.of.highly. explosive.severe.weather.condi5ons.over.the. southern.plains. These&are&the&kind&of&paCern&evolu<ons&that& are¬&generally&predictable&more&than&10o14& days&in&advance!&
2014 Factors Likely trending towards an El Nino (slightly unfavorable?) Warm southern Gulf/Caribbean (slightly favorable) Developing subtropical jet stream (conditionally favorable) An emerging factor: blocking! This shifts the storm track southward into the lower Plains and Deep South but can result in too many frontal passages into the Gulf and not enough time for moisture to recover between storm systems. Making a seasonal tornado prediction is about as hopeless as making an overall hurricane season prediction. On statistical grounds alone, overall numbers/activity not likely to be as low as 2013 s record but present predicted pattern evolution through at least Week 2 is not particularly favorable for early-season high-end severe weather episodes; must monitor intra-seasonal weather patterns to catch big severe weather events.
Severe Weather Forecast: Solving Severe Weather Communication Challenges Claudia.Dent. VP#Product#Management. Everbridge..
Everbridge and WDT: SMART Weather Everbridge s SMART Weather Alerting leverages meteorological resources to enhance and optimize over 150 severe weather alerts Tactical Weather Information: Hazard Prediction/Detection Nowcasting (0-6hrs) Doppler Radar Location-Based Services & Alerting Interactive Mapping & GIS Medium Range Strategic Forecasting SMART Weather: Specific Map-driven Automated Rules-based Targeted Smart, Targeted Communication Empowered Mobile Global Ready Geo-Intelligent Tools Social Integration Flexible Contact Management Powerful Reporting and Analytics
Why Communication Matters: Hurricane Sandy The second-costliest hurricane in United States history Formed October 22, 2012, dissipated October 31, 2012 285 fatalities, 8,100,000 without power $ 25 billion in property damage and lost business Everbridge clients used communication to protect their contacts 25,686 broadcasts / 8.5M messages 5.9M people contacted 8 sec. median time to launch
Why Communication Matters During Severe Weather + Send.messages.for.different.audiences.based.on.role,.loca5on,.etc.. + Automa5cally.trigger.communica5on.that.kicks.off.business.con5nuity.plans. + Save.5me,.improve.produc5vity,.and.prevent.losses. Message'1' Message'2' Message'3' OperaLons' FaciliLes'Managers' Community'&' Employees'
Everbridge Weather Alerts and Notifications Automa5cally.no5fy.contacts.based.on.weather. event.. OR' Select.contacts.interac5vely.in.the.map.. Receive.important.weather.alerts. Automa5cally.trigger.no5fica5ons. Fully.customizable.
Confirm Multiple Contact Paths Target the individual, not the device Some modes may be compromised Familiarity and preference impact response People move around in times of emergency
Focus on Message Construction Focus on message construction: clear, concise, actionable 3-3-30 rule: 3 short sentences, 3 key messages, 30 words SMS messages should be no longer than 120 characters Audio/Video should convey its message in the first 9 seconds Clearly tell recipients what they should do even if they shouldn t do anything.
Assured Response: Two-Way Mobile Communications Communicate with and geo-locate frontline resources even under adverse network conditions like low bandwidth or connectivity Only.dedicated.mobile. recipient.applica5on. with.two[way. communica5on.. Receive'push'noLficaLons' Respond'using'polling' Share'details'&'photos'
Smart Delivery: Social Intelligence Social.Media.
Smart Delivery: Social Intelligence Social.Media.
Everbridge Founded, 2002 Los Angeles, Boston, London, Frankfurt, Beijing EXAMPLES OF EVERBRIDGE IN ACTION Hurricane Sandy: Massive Scale 25,686 broadcasts / 8.5M messages 5.9M people contacted 8 sec. median time to launch Boston Marathon Attack: Dynamic & Tactical Boston, Waltham, Watertown, the MBTA, Boston Public Library, business, universities & hospitals used Everbridge to: CLIENTS GLOBAL DATACENTERS CONTACTS MANAGED ( = 1/8 people in the US) Coordinate emergency response Orchestrate the manhunt Announce service suspensions Staff nurses and doctors Check on employee safety Broadcast shelter in place MESSAGES SENT PER YEAR
Q&A Note:'' Presenta5on.slides.will.be.available.on. our.blog.at.blog.everbridge.com. Contact'Us:'. Everbridge. marke5ng@everbridge.com. 818[230[9700.. WDT. mlee@wd5nc.com. 713[854[4236.. Use.the.Q&A. func5on.to.submit. your.ques5ons..
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