Space Weather @ ICAO Bart Nicolai 1
Contents! Pre-2002! MET DIV Meeting 2002! 2002-2014 IAVWOPSG! MET DIV Meeting 2014! Post 2014 MET Panel! Summary 2
Pre- 2002 3
MET DIV Meeting 2002 POLAR ROUTES WASHINGTON PIRE L 82 N MAGUN ABERI CHICAGO NALIM DEVID RAMEL NIKIN ORVIT BEIJING HONG KONG SHANGHAI TOKYO 4
MET DIV Meeting 2002 5
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! 8 Meetings held (approx every 18 months) between March 2004 and february 2014 http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/iavwopsg/lists/meetings/ AllItems.aspx! 2010: Approval & publication of Space Weather Effects in Regard to International Air Navigation http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/iavwopsg/space %20Weather/Forms/AllItems.aspx 6
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG 7
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! 2011-2013: Development & publication of several versions of CONOPS for Space Weather Information in Suuport of International Air Navigation http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/iavwopsg/space %20Weather/Forms/AllItems.aspx! WMO ICTSW in the loop of reviewing CONOPS 8
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG 9
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! 2014: Conclusion made to develop a Manual on space weather - task not yet completed WMO ICTSW supported the draft ICAO provisions to serve as basis for the provision of operational space weather information Four types of Space Weather events identified as relevant to aviation: > solar radiation storms and solar flares are large scale phenomena which can best be addressed at the global scale > geomagnetic storms and ionospheric disturbances are addressed at the global scale at the predictive stage, but should additionally be addressed at the regional level for alerts and warnings at shorter timescales and for monitoring the observation of the actual event Proposal for amendement to ICAO Annex 3 drafted for discussion at MET DIV meeting 2014 10
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG 11
MET DIV 2014 Conops 12
MET DIV 2014 proposal Annex 3 13
MET DIV 2014 proposal Annex 3 14
MET DIV 2014 proposal Annex 3 15
MET DIV 2014 Outcome 16
MET DIV 2014 Outcome 17
Post 2014 ICAO MET Panel! Set-up of ICAO MET Panel first meeting in April 2015! Space weather services development is part of Working Group on Information & Service Development! Space weather activity is covered by dedicated Job Card on Space Weather systems development http://www.icao.int/airnavigation/metp/pages/default.aspx 18
Post 2014 ICAO MET Panel 19
Summary! ICAO has developed: Draft Guidance material on Space Weather Draft CONOPS for Space Weather Services, including: > Functional & performance requirements > Space weather impact table (based upon NOAA scales) Draft Standards & Recommended Practices (SARPs) for future Space Weather Centers! ICAO activities over the coming years: Finalisation of CONOPS Finalisation of SARPs => for inclusion in Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3 (application date November 2018) Development of a Manual on Space Weather (to replace the Guidance material) 20
Any Questions? 21
Back-up slides - IAVWOPSG 22
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! Meeting 1 (March 2004): Member of US was requested to draft a report on developments related to solar radiation storms for next meeting! Meeting 2 (September 2005): IP presented by US containing information on impact of space weather and on existing products in the US! Meeting 3 (March 2007): Feedback given on a Space Weather workshop conducted in US in November 2006 => US member requested to prepare proposal on how to adress the Space Weather issue 23
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! Meeting 4 (September 2008): Member of US presented report and requested the development of a manual and Training Material => IAVWOPSG concluded to develop Training Material; IATA stated that there is a requirement for space weather information! Meeting 5 (March 2010): Draft training document Space Weather Effects in Regard to International Air Navigation developed by US NWS Space Weather Prediction Centre was reviewed => IAVWOPSG conclusion to publish this document as guidance material on ICAO website http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/iavwopsg/ Space%20Weather/Forms/AllItems.aspx 24
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! Meeting 5 (March 2010) ctd: Second IAVWOPSG conclusion to develop requirements for Space Weather via a dedicated ad-hoc working group! Meeting 6 (September 2011): Report from ad-hoc group presented and reviewed; rather than developing requirements directly, the group had developed a draft concept of operations for space weather which should be used as a basis to define functional requirements and performance metrics => IAVWOPSG conclusion to publish Conops as well as high-level user requirements from IATA on the ICAO website http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/iavwopsg/space %20Weather/Forms/AllItems.aspx 25
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! Meeting 7 (March 2013): Presentation & discussion of a draft set of requirements (in the form of a notice message) => IAVWOPSG conclusion to study the use of colour codes & to review the guidance material (note: updated guidance has never been published) Review of updated conops (v2.2) that included approx. 100 substantive comments from States experts as well as from the WMO ICTSW => Conclusion that ad-hoc group further updates conops 26
2002-2014 - IAVWOPSG! Meeting 8 (February 2014): Review of guidance material should be aligned with ICAO Doc 9691 (Manual on VA, RDOACT material & toxic CHEM clouds) => Conclusion to develop a Manual on space weather - task not yet concluded Proposal for amendement to ICAO Annex 3 drafted for discussion at MET DIV meeting 2014 Conops v3 presented (= version used at MET DIV meeting 2014) additional comments given WMO ICTSW support to draft ICAO provisions to serve as basis for the provision of operational space weather information 27