Senior Leadership Briefing Hurricane Arthur East Coast Thursday, July 3, 2014 (5:00 p.m. EDT) Current Situation At 2pm EDT, Hurricane Arthur was located about 70 miles south/southwest of Cape Fear, NC and moving to the north/northeast at 13 mph. The maximum sustained winds were 90 mph and the minimum central pressure was 980mb. Arthur is forecast to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed today, followed by a further increase in forward speed through tonight and Friday. The core of Arthur is expected to approach the North Carolina coast in the Hurricane Warning area tonight. Some additional strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours. Arthur is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane when it passes over or near the NC coast. Arthur is expected to begin weakening Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Arthur Update, 7/3/14, 2:00pm EDT) Weather Forecast (Graphics are available at the end of this report) Wind Speed Probabilities: City Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities Hurricane Wind Probabilities Wilmington, NC 92% n/a Morehead City, NC 99% 51% Cape Hatteras, NC 99% 72% Norfolk, VA 40% n/a Montauk Point 20% n/a Nantucket, MA 54% n/a Storm Surge: Area Hurricane Warning Area (NC) Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds Southern NC into Northeastern SC Extreme Southeastern VA Storm Surge 3-5 Feet 2-4 Feet 1-3 Feet 1-2 Feet (NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Arthur Update, 7/3/14, 2:00pm EDT) Rainfall: Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches, are expected over coastal areas of NC through Friday. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are possible along the northern coast of SC. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal NC through tonight. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Arthur Update, 7/3/14, 2:00pm EDT) Tornados: A Tornado Watch has been issued for coastal North Carolina, effective until 2:00am EDT (NOAA Spot Report 7/3/14, 2:30pm EDT). Summary of watches and warnings in effect: o A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Surf City, NC northward to NC/VA Border, Pamlico Sound, and Eastern Albemarle Sound. o A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Little River Inlet to south of Surf City, NC. o A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from South Santee River, SC to south of Surf City, NC, NC/VA Border to Cape Charles Light, VA (Including mouth of Chesapeake Bay), and western Albemarle Sound (NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Arthur Update, 7/3/14, 2:00pm EDT)
Impacts/Response: Evacuations and Shelters o The following evacuation orders have been released: County Carteret Area Evacuation Order No Evac Order Dare Hatteras Island Mandatory Hyde Ocracoke Island Voluntary Normal Population (Census) * 67,632 34,573 5,859 (Paper1 Ocracoke Island Evacuations, 7/3/2014, 11:41 am EDT) * (Impacts Estimate: Hurricane Arthur, 7/3/2014, 11:00am EDT) o The North Carolina Department of Transportation is scheduling to suspend Ocracoke Island ferry services as of 5:00pm EDT (Service suspended between Ocracoke Island and Hatteras, Cedar Island, and Swan Quarter). (NC Department of Transportation Spot Report, 7/3/14, 2:00 pm EDT). State Status North Carolina o State Emergency Declaration was issued on July 2, 2014. o Counties declared: Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Columbus, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Duplin, Gates, Hertford, Hyde, Jones, Martin, New Handover, Onslow, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Pender, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington (North Carolina Executive Order 57, 7/2/2014) Response FEMA Headquarters (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:00pm EDT) The National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) activated to Level II July 3, 2014 8:00 am EDT; FEMA Region I (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:00pm EDT) Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) activated to Level III Core IMAT will muster at RRCC, Liaison Officers (LNOs) on alert FEMA Region II (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:00pm EDT) Regional Response Coordination Center at Watch/Steady State FEMA Region III (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:00pm EDT) No impacts expected Summer Peak Pop. (Est.) * Evacuated Population Sheltering Capacity 170,000 No Report 1,780 250,000 No Report 1,001 10,000 No Report 300 FEMA Region IV (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:00pm EDT) RRCC: Activated to Level II (7am-7pm daily) w/ select ESFs; Enhanced Watch (7pm-7am) IMAT 1: Deployed to Raleigh, NC LNO: 1 Deployed to NC and SC EOCs North Carolina EOC activated to Level III; South Carolina EOC activated to Level IV 2
ESF Updates ESF 1 Transportation: The port of Morehead is closed, and the port of Wilmington is closed to inbound traffic (Interagency VTC, 7/3/2014, 12:30pm EDT). ESF 3 Public Works and Engineering: All dredges and vessels have been moved to harbor in Wilmington district. Pre-storm assessments have been conducted, and crews are on standby for immediate response after landfall. (Interagency VTC, 7/3/2014, 12:30pm EDT). o Temporary Power: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has alerted the Savannah District Temporary Power Team and the 249th Engineering Battalion to be prepared to deploy to provide generator support to critical facilities. USACE is also coordinating daily Interagency Temporary Power calls with FEMA and DOE to discuss potential requirements and develop action plans for responding o Coastal Damage Assessments: USACE has identified coast engineering experts that are prepared to provide damage assessment expertise to FEMA following landfall. o USACE Contingency Plan: A contingency plan is in place for alerting and deploying Team Leaders, Planning Response Teams, Deployable Tactical Operation System assets and other resources, if requirements emerge from the hurricane (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 11:55am EDT). ESF 6 Mass Care (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 3:02pm EDT): o American Red Cross North Carolina 4 Shelters open: 2 in Beaufort County (capacity 880) and 2 in Carteret County (capacity 280) 3-4 shelters on standby in Craven County o National Processing Service Centers (NPSCs) A preliminary plan has been developed to address registration intake and call center requirements for Hurricane Arthur. Sufficient staff across the NPSC enterprise to handle the anticipated call volume in the event of a declaration. ESF 8 Public Health: HHS has 7 DMAT teams on standby (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 11:55am EDT). ESF 9 Search and Rescue: FEMA Region IV reports one Type 1 and two Type 2 USAR team on standby. 100 National Guard soldiers and 40 high-rise vehicles are prepared to conduct search and rescue operations (Interagency VTC, 7/3/2014, 12:30pm EDT). ESF 12 Energy: No DOE facilities, inventory, or oil/gas pipelines are in the projected storm path. No nuclear power plants are being taken offline, but the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is monitoring two nuclear generations in the path of the storm in Brunswick, NC and Surry, VA. Region IV reports 600+ electrical workers available to restore power after the storm (Interagency VTC, 7/3/2014, 12:30pm EDT). State Customers w/o Power* Florida 2128 North Carolina 1188 Virginia 873 South Carolina 724 Georgia 236 *As of July 3, 11:00am EDT. (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 11:55am EDT) ESF 15 External Affairs (NRCC Situation Report, 7/3/14, 12:35am EDT): o English Speaking Media: Issued a national news release regarding evacuation and heeding the advice of local officials o Distributed national level talking points this morning o Spanish Speaking Media: Conducting outreach and interviews with preparedness messaging to national and local media in the potentially impacted areas 3
Coast Guard: 3 H-60 helicopters are positioned in Elizabeth City, NC and are ready to conduct search and rescue operations and post-storm assessments (Interagency VTC, 7/3/2014, 12:30pm EDT). Department of Defense (Department of Defense LNO, 7/3/14, 12:30pm EDT). o An Incident Support Base (ISB) has been established at Fort Bragg, NC. o The DCE in Atlanta, GA has been activated. FEMA Resource Support 150,500 liters of water (10 truckloads) and 116,160 meals (5 truckloads) are en route to Fort Bragg, NC from Atlanta, GA. The commodities are expected to arrive in North Carolina by midnight tonight (July 3-4 2014) (ESF 7 Desk, 7/3/2014, 4:00pm EDT) An additional 149,100 liters of water (10 truckloads), 104,544 meals (5 truckloads), 10 Infant/Toddler (I/T) kits, 1 Consumable Medical Supplies (CMS) kit, and 1 Durable Medical Equipment (DME) kit (1 truck), and 1 universal generator pack (16 trucks, includes Bill of Materials (BOM) kit, fuel tank, 54 generators), are en route to Fort Bragg, NC from Atlanta, GA. The commodities are expected to arrive in North Carolina by tomorrow night/saturday morning (July 4-5 2014) (ESF 7 Desk, 7/3/2014, 4:00pm EDT). Impact Estimates BASELINE INFORMATION Carteret Dare Hyde TOTAL Census Population (2012) 67,632 34,573 5,859 108,064 Summer Population Peak (Estimated) ~170,000 ~250,000 ~10,000 ~440,000 Area (Sq. Mi.) 512 383 613 1,508 Total Buildings 42,798 29,978 4,176 76,952 Building Value ($Ms) $4,559 $3,540 $336 $13,144 % of Total Buildings that are Residential 93.41% 94.04% 94.23% 93.89% $2,856,867,00 $6,600,080,00 Residential Exposure $3,486,771,000 $256,442,000 0 0 # of Hospital Beds (total in county) 221 19 0 $240 4
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