Climate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy Forum Parliament House, Canberra 18 March 2010
Opening Comments Prof. Peter Coaldrake Chair Universities Australia
Session 1 Climate change in Australia today: the evidence Chair: Prof. Peter Coaldrake Chair, Universities Australia
Australia s climate has changed the climate record Dr Blair Trewin National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology
Australian Climate: The Past 100 Years of Change Blair Trewin Bureau of Meteorology
Australian Temperatures Temperature has increased by about 0.7 C since 1960 2000 to 2009 was Australia s warmest decade on record 2005 was Australia s warmest year on record, 2009 the second warmest
Warming has occurred throughout Australia
Changes in Maximum Temperature Extremes Distribution of High Maximum Temperatures Number in Each Year 60 50 40 30 20 10 Decadal mean 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Highest daily maximum temperatures tend to occur in recent years More sites recorded highest daily maximum temperatures in 2009 than in any other year
Australian Rainfall Substantial increases in many parts of northern and central Australia Substantial decreases since 1960 across much of southern and eastern Australia
The SE Australian drought in a historical perspective Current 9-year drought on a par with 1937-46 and 1895-1903 Current long-term drought clearly worst on record in much of Victoria and southern MDB
Other changes (and non-changes) Extreme rainfall trends mostly follow means up in N and W, down in S and E Tropical cyclones weak downward trend in total numbers since 1970, no clear trend in intense cyclones Evaporation trends weak Atmospheric moisture (humidity) generally slightly up Increased number of extreme fire weather days in SE Australia
Number of tropical cyclones 1960-2009 20 18 16 All cyclones 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Intense cyclones 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Climate in SE Australia hotter, drier with increased risks Prof. Roger Jones Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University
Climate in SE Australia: hotter, drier, with increased risks Roger Jones March 18, 2010 Acknowledgements Melbourne Water, Rae Moran DSE, Bertrand Timbal CAWCR, Bureau of Meteorology WWW.VU.EDU.AU 14
Since late 1996 SE Australia is drier Rainfall Deciles: Nov 1996 31 Oct 2007 A 15
Average rainfall pre and post 1997 South of the Great Divide Rainfall (mm) 120 100 80 60 40 1910-1996 1997-2008 70 60 50 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall (mm) 40 30 20 1910-1996 1997-2008 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec North of the Great Divide 16
Annual max temp for SE Australia P<0.01 1997 ~1 C 17
Melbourne Water inflows 1913 2008 1400 1200 Inflows (Gigalitres/year) 1000 800 600 400 200-40% 0 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 Inflows 1913-1996 1997-2008 18
Changes compared to projections Melb Water supply system 0 3 Change in rainfall (%) -5-10 -15-20 -25 Change in temperature ( C) 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Projected Rainfall (%) Observed rainfall (1996 2008) Projected max temp ( C) Observed max temp (1996 2008) 0 Change in streamflow (%) -5-10 -15-20 -25-30 -35-40 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Projected flow change Observed flow change 19
Fires to 2007 20
Fires to 2009 21
Subtropical ridge intensification Timbal, CAWCR 22
Climate change plus variability means that we are in for a rough ride 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Single climate model simulation 23
CONTACT DETAILS Roger Jones Centre for Strategic Economic Studies PHONE +61 3 9919 1992 FAX +61 3 9919 1350 EMAIL roger.jones@vu.edu.au http://www.cfses.com/staff/rjones.htm WWW.VU.EDU.AU 24
Plants and animals reveal climate change Dr Marie Keatley Department of Forest and Ecosystem University of Melbourne
The climate change adaptation in Australian Agriculture Prof. Snow Barlow Melbourne School of Land and Environment and Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network NCCARF The University of Melbourne
Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture Australia s primary industries are already living with climate change Temperature Rainfall Extreme events Increasing temperatures are dramatically changing annual harvest events Major Southern Australian irrigation industries, are taking strong adaptation measures as a result of declining water availability Drier climates and more uncertain water supplies may be require new enterprises more resilient to uncertain water supplies to manage the risks Increased CO2 has the capacity to ameliorate only some of these drought effects in the medium term
Climate Change Adaptation Framework Transformational new climate, low carbon production systems Transformational Systems Changed industries New products Different systems New production areas Greater need for new and public RDE investment? Adaptation Actions Adapting Systems New crops New cropping systems New irrigations systems New markets Strategic adaptation and/or mitigation systems programs Adaptive Management Variety, sowing Irrigation mgmt Fertilizer mgmt Pest mgmt Disease Incremental change, current productivity programs Severity of Climate Change - (Temp, Rainfall & Extreme Events)
The Final Word Charles Darwin It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.