Oilfield Breakfast Forum October, 2014 U.S. Shale Gas in 2030 Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology The University of Texas at Austin, Austin
BCF/Day Global Natural Gas Production 350.0 300.0 Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 115 Tcfy 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Global Natural Gas Resources v. Cost Production cost (2008 $/Mbtu) 15 10 5 0 Tight ~5,600 Shale Tcf Sour 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Resources (TcF) LNG QAe980
Marketed Production (Tcf) U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves 30 300 25 Annual U.S. Production 250 20 15 10 5 End-of-Year U.S. Proved Reserves 200 150 100 50 Proved Reserves (Tcf) 0 0 Data: BP World Energy 2012
U.S. Natural Gas Production (TcF) 25 23 TcF 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 14 TcF 9 TcF Shale gas Coalbed methane Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska Associated with oil Non-associated onshore http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/about_shale_gas.cfm
Unconventional Resource Plays Niobrara Fm Cody Bakken Utica Mowry HilliardBaxterMancos-Niobrara Heath Fm Gammon Niobrara- Mowry Niobrara Fm Antrim Antrim Utica- Collingwood Antrim Utica Marcellus Manning Canyon Mancos Kreyenhagen Hermosa Monterey- T emblor Gothic-Hovenweep Lewis Monterey Pierre- Niobrara W oodford New Albany Excello-Mulky Fayetteville Chattanooga Bend A valon-bone Spring W olfberry Cline W olfcamp (Delaware) Barnett- W oodford Barnett W olfcamp (Midland) Chattanooga W oodford-caney Conasauga Floyd-Neal Floyd-Chattanooga Haynesville T uscaloosa Pearsall Eagle Ford Cenozoic Miocene Mesozoic Cretaceous Paleozoic Permian Mississippian-Devonian T ight sands Miocene-Oligocene Jurassic Pennsylvanian Devonian Basins Eocene T rassic Mississippian-Penn Ordovician Mississippian Cambrian Modified from: EIA and National Geographic QAei2915
Unconventional Resource Plays Bakken Marcellus Fayetteville Permian Basin Barnett Haynesville Eagle Ford Cenozoic Miocene Mesozoic Cretaceous Paleozoic Permian Mississippian-Devonian T ight sands Miocene-Oligocene Jurassic Pennsylvanian Devonian Basins Eocene T rassic Mississippian-Penn Ordovician Mississippian Cambrian Modified from: EIA and National Geographic
Bureau of Economic Geology U.S. Shale Gas Integrated Study What is the total resource base in place? What portion is technically recoverable? What potion is economically recoverable? What is the long-term production outlook? BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Relative Frequency Barnett Monte Carlo Production Distribution 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.010 0.005 35 Tcf OGIP 444 TcF 56 Tcf 0.000 29 34 39 44 49 55 60 65 70 Cumulative Production (Tcf) Browning, J. et al. 2013. SPE Econ & Mgmt
Relative Frequency Fayetteville Monte Carlo Production Distribution 0.05 OGIP 80 TcF 0.04 0.03 0.02 13 Tcf 23 Tcf 0.01 0 10 12 14 17 19 21 23 26 28 Cumulative Production (Tcf) BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Relative Frequency Haynesville Monte Carlo Production Distribution 0.055 0.05 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 24 Tcf OGIP 489 TcF 62 Tcf 0 14 24 33 43 52 62 72 81 Cumulative Production (Tcf) BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
Forecast vs. Actual Model: Rice University, Medlock, 2012 EIA
Subsurface Nanosensing
1000s Bbl Day Global Oil Production Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 30.5 BBY 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
Production cost (2008 $) Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost 140 120 EOR Arctic Global Consumption 31 Bby 100 80 60 40 Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Heavy oil & bitumen Oil shales ~1,300 Shale oil Bbo Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 20 Produced MENA 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10,000 Resources (billion barrels) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
Advanced Energy Consortium Founded in 2008, the AEC membership now comprises 8 of the largest international oil and gas production and service companies. The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin serves as the managing organization for the AEC and maintains offices in Austin and Houston. Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
AEC Research Portfolio 1) MOBILITY 2) CONTRAST AGENTS 3) NANOMATERIAL SENSORS 4) MICRO-FABRICATED SENSORS Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Research to Application Pipeline AEC Research Thrust Engine AEC Filtering and Integration of Ideas Member Driven Use Cases Nano Concepts Hydrofrac Research Thrusts Building Blocks Application Ideas EOR Waterflood Pre Competitive Prototypes Experiments and Demos Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Use Cases = Field Applications Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
Summary Shale Gas Will be a contributor to global energy Above ground challenges are real Alternatives are not perfect Won t last forever Subsurface Nanosensors Are getting close to reality Will improve reservoir characterization Should improve recovery
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