GIS in Weather and Society Olga Wilhelmi Institute for the Study of Society and Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research WAS*IS November 8, 2005 Boulder, Colorado
Presentation Outline GIS basic concepts How GIS can be used in weather / society research and applications Current applications Emerging developments / potential use Case Study Front Range flash flood project ArcGIS quick introduction Class exercise Presentation of results and discussion
Geographic Information Systems Capture Store Computer Mapping People Analyze Display Query Software Data Output Database Management Hardware Procedures Spatial Analysis
GIS Industry Commercial (COTS) ESRI, MapInfo, IDRISI, and many other vendors Open Geospatial Consortium Standards, specifications, protocols
Organizing Spatial Data in a GIS A GIS works with thematic layers of spatial data Allows to ask and answer questions by comparing and integrating different layers of data Image courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)
Capturing Data GIS includes methods for inputting geographic (X,Y) and tabular (attribute) data Vast collection of geographically referenced data already exists in digital format Resources on the Web Satellite imagery, photography Coordinates (X, Y) weather station locations Paper Maps
Storing Data Vector formats Discrete representation of reality (points, lines, polygons) Raster formats Use square cells to model reality
Query Identifying specific features Identifying and selecting features based on certain condition
Analysis Proximity Overlay Network Spatial statistics Custom tools
Display Maps Graphs Reports
Output Paper Maps Images Internet
Weather in GIS From static to dynamic Images courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)
Current use of GIS Mapping: visualization of information Data integration: integrating environmental and social data in a single framework allows to address interdisciplinary questions on weather-society interactions Data analysis: exploration of spatial patterns, relationships, networks; spatial statistics Data distribution: disseminating weather and climate science to broader audiences
Impacts Assessments
Vulnerability/Risk Assessments climate soils land use irrigation Agricultural drought vulnerability
Environmental and Societal Impacts Fire fuel characterization Fire Model GIS integration Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme precipitation events Valuation of ecosystem service changes in alpine landscapes
Data Dissemination http://www.gisclimatechange.org http://map.ngdc.noaa.gov/website/nosa/viewer.htm
GIS in Weather and Climate NCAR GIS Strategic Initiative European COST-719 Atmospheric Data Modeling AMS: GIS applications (2003-2005) EGU: GIS in meteorology and climatology (2001-2005)
Ongoing and Emerging Research Themes Spatial Interoperability Data formats Compatible Tools Adding time in GIS Scale Upscaling Downscaling Interpolation methods Standards Investigating coupled systems Impact assessment of earth system changes
Weather Forecasting: OGC web services MM5 weather forecast model displayed with the Open GIS Web Mapping Service in CIDD (visualization software developed at NCAR)
Meteorological Observations Radar mosaic and mobile surface temperature observations
Outputs from GCMs Vulnerability of agricultural production and High Plains aquifer s depleting water resources to predicted climate change in the Great Plains
WRF Forecast of Katrina Wind Speed 08/29-1400
WRF Forecast of Katrina Total Rainfall
Case Study A Flash Flood Risk Assessment of the Colorado Front Range Region Using GIS 2005 SOARS project Braxton Edwards, University of Oklahoma (SOARS protоgо) Olga Wilhelmi and Rebecca Morss, NCAR (SOARS mentors)
Problem Yearly average of $4.5 Billion damage and 98 deaths between 1983 and 2003 Damage due to floods continues to rise as the population and property at risk increases Accurate risk assessments can aid in determining appropriate flood control, mitigation, and response strategies
Study Area - Colorado Front Range
Risk Assessment Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability Exposure takes into account the environmental conditions or hazard Vulnerability is a characteristic of a person or a group to cope with, resist and recover from a hazard What is risk? Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability Coping Proximity Probability Frequency Preparedness Recovery Intensity Duration
Theoretical Basis Vulnerability assessments (e.g., Cutter 1996, Cutter et al. 2000, Wilhelmi et al. 2004) Exposure assessment: AMBER Areal Mean Basin Effective Rainfall method to identify watersheds with flash flood potential (e.g., NWS, Johnson 2002)
Data sources Data type In GIS format Original source Demographics ESRI, Inc U.S. Census 2000 Critical facilities, infrastructure 1997 Fort Collins radar precipitation Front Range watershed boundaries Flash Flood Guidance values ESRI, Inc Converter courtesy of D. Yates (RAL) NWS (courtesy of Treste Hughes) created ESRI, Inc. F.L. Ogden (UCONN) NWS NWS River Forecast Centers
Vulnerability Assessment Identify Vulnerability Factors 65_up Hispanic Female Renter classification Demographic vulnerability Critical Facilities weighting Total Vulnerability
Exposure assessment 6 hour 3 hour Radar rainfall 1 hour Basin average rainfall FFG Basin Average FFG Watersheds Exposure Watershed boundaries
Risk=Exposure*Vulnerability Flood Exposure Urban areas Vulnerability Case 1 Case 2 Fort Collins 1,3, and 6 Hour Rain Accumulation Total Risk Denver 6 Hour Rain Accumulation
Comparing Risk in Fort Collins and Denver
GIS in weather and society GIS is a useful tool to study problems when people matter GIS is a useful tool for integrative research Ongoing research in Atmo-GIS offers new potentials
ArcGIS quick overview and walk through exercise ArcCatalog ArcMap ArcToolbox
Discussion Can we identify research questions and/or problems where GIS can benefit both science and society? Who do you see as primary users of GIS products (datasets, decision-support tools, web services) Any other questions you many have