June 15, 2018 Precipitation and Temperature Trends River Flood Behavior National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS Boston/Norton Providence Street West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10
NWS Boston/Norton New Office Facility NWS Boston/Norton 46 Commerce Way Norton, MA. 508-622-3300
NOAA/NWS s Northeast River Forecast Center Our Mission: To provide our nation with river, flood and water resource forecasts for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy http://www.weather.gov/nerfc
Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models to provide: - River flow and stage forecasts - Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding - Ensemble streamflow predictions - Ice Jam and Dam Break support - Water Supply forecasts - Partner with NOAA Line Offices to address issues relating to Hazard Resiliency, Water Resource Services, Ecosystem Health and Management, and Climate Change River Forecast Center Responsibilities Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at Portland, CT.
NOAA Water Initiative Overarching Goal: Transform water information service delivery to better meet and support evolving societal needs Objectives and Outcomes: Build strategic partnerships for water information services Strengthen water decision support tools and networks Revolutionize water modeling, forecasting, and precipitation prediction Accelerate water information research and development (R&D) Enhance and sustain waterrelated observations http://www.noaa.gov/explainers/noaa-water-initiative-vision-and-five-year-plan
National Water Center A Catalyst to Transform NOAA s Water Prediction Program Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services Initial 14x7 operations by the end of CY19 Successful demonstration of RFC service backup capability FEMA, USGS, USACE participating in activities Partnering with Academia ~ 70 scientific meetings 6
Addressing Stakeholder Needs Multi-Year Strategic Science and Services Plan Office of Water Prediction National Water Center FY 15-19 Core Capability Centralized Water Forecasting National Water Model (NWM) operational [V1.0 July 2016] Street Level water forecasts for 2.7 million stream reaches Expand from only flow/stage forecasts to forecasts of full water budget Forecasts linked to geospatial informational to provide water intelligence FY 16-20 Key Enhancement Flash Flood and Urban Hydrology Enhance NWM with nested hyperresolution zoom capability and urban hydrologic processes Heightened focus on regions of interest (e.g. follow storms) Street level flood inundation forecasts for selected urban demonstration areas NWC increases guidance to NWS field offices to improve consistency and enhance services for flash floods FY 17- Major Integration Integrated Water Prediction Couple NWM with marine models to predict combined effects of storm surge, tide, wave, and riverine More complete picture of coastal storm impacts Summit-to-sea water prediction information linked to geospatial information to assess risk and vulnerability New service delivery model implemented increased stakeholder engagement and integrated information NWC Operations Center opens and provides national decision support services and situational awareness TBD Key Enhancement Dry Side: Drought and Post-Fire Couple NWM with shallow groundwater and transport models to predict low flows, drought and fire impacts Add NWM processes that capture subsurface water movement and storage during dry conditions Add NWM ability to track constituents (e.g. sediment, contaminants, nutrients) through stream network New decision support services for water shortage situations and waterborne transport NWC Operations Center services expand to include drought and postfire decision support services Major Integration Water Quality Integrate enhanced NWM with key water quality data sets, models and tools to begin water quality prediction TBD Incorporate water quality data from federal and State partners into NWM Link NWM output to NOAA ecological forecasting operations New decision support services for predicting water quality issues such as Harmful Algal Blooms New decision support services for emergencies such as chemical spills NWC operations center services expand to include water quality decision support services
National Water Model Initial Operating Capability August 16, 2016 Current NWS River Forecast Points overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches A high spatial and resolution continental scale model of the nation s river and stream network Spatially continuous estimates of major water cycle components (e.g., snowpack, soil moisture, channel flow, major reservoir inflows, flood inundation) Operational forecast streamflow guidance for currently underserved locations: 3,600 forecast points 2.7 million NHDPlus river reaches (700 fold increase in spatial density) Employs an Earth system modeling architecture that permits rapid model evolution of new data, science and technology Building (i.e. WRF Hydro) a Weather-Ready Nation
Precipitation: Frequency Duration NOAA Atlas 14 Vol 10 and NERCC Extreme Precipitation 1961 TP-40 Duration: 30min - 24hrs Return Period: 1yr -100yr 1964 TP-49 Duration: 2-10 days Return Period 2-100 yr 1977 Hydro-35 Duration: 5-30min Return Period: 2-100yr 2010 NERCC Extreme Precipitation http://precip.eas.cornell.edu Duration: 5min 10 days Return Period: 1yr - 500 yr 2015 NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 10 https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ma Duration: 5min 60day Return Period: 2yr 1000yr
NOAA ATLAS 14 24 Hour 100 year return period rainfall 5 6 5 6 8 Much of the state has seen a 1 to nearly 2 inch increase in the 24hr/100 yr storm! 7 7 Thick yellow lines represent 24 hr 100 yr values from TP 40, 1961 http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/index.html
MA Climate Region 1 Annual Precip 1900 2017
MA Climate Region 1 Annual Precip 1967 2017
Local COOP Site Norton MA Annual Precipitation Increasing ***Slightly***
Change in Frequency of Heavy Precipitation Norton - 14 Days per Year of 1 or more rainfall The map shows percent increases regionally in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the top 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012. Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts
Precipitation Extremes Spring of 2010 -- RI
Extreme Rainfall 1000 YR Recurrence Interval or 1/1000 Annual exceedance probability? Aug 2014 LI May 2018 MD July 2016 MD
Norton Ma Rainfall Records A perspective on Intense Heavy Rainfall 4.7
How often can we get a 100 Year flood or a 100 Year storm?
MA Climate Region 1 Annual Temps 1900 2017
MA Climate Region 1 Annual Temps 1967 2017
Seasonal Snowfall Trends Norton, MA.
NESIS Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale Depth Area Population Impacted NOAA Kocin/Uccellini
Winter of 2018 3 NESIS Storms
NESIS by Month and Decade NESIS by Kocin/Uccelini.. Summarized by DeLeo
Bridging One Gap: Coastal Flood Threat and Inundation Mapping Coastal Flood Threat and Inundation Mapping Services WFO Caribou, ME and Boston/Norton, MA are providing this service today WFO Gray, ME will commence services in FY 2019 Forecasts of storm surge, total water level, and during times of high water, static inundation maps along the shoreline
Dune Overwash & Erosion Forecast In partnership with the USGS Links WFO Total water level to potential for Inundation, Overwash and Dune Erosion Example from the March 2-4, 2018 Nor easter
Another Look at Precipitation PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index The Palmer drought index, sometimes called the Palmer drought severity index and often abbreviated PDSI, is a measurement of dryness based on recent precipitation and temperature
Are Flow Characteristics Changing? Yester-year rural-suburban to Today s Urban-Suburban 1960 s Severe Drought 2016 Drought (multi yr) 50 deficit 20 deficit
Teleconnections Affect Precip/Temp Can Have Implications on River Flow El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki El Nino (EMI) Nino 3.4 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Pacific North American Index (PNA) SST Anomalies (SSTA) Pacific/Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multi Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Stratospheric Trends and Temp Anomalies Solar Trends geomagnetic activity, solar flux, sunspots Pattern Persistence Analog Years 29
River Forecast Uncertainty Sources include: 1. The model calibration - if done well this is minimal 2. The model time step - Most locations are modeled on 6 hour time step - Becomes a significant contributor in short duration intense rainfall 3. Accuracy in Precipitation Assimilation - Function of terrain, gage networks 4. Anthropogenic forcings -Dam and Power generation - Flood Control operations - Consumptive use of water 5. Antecedent Conditions soils flows - ET But the biggest one of the bunch: The accuracy in the precipitation forecasts driving the model timing and spatial extent of significant rainfall Building a Weather Ready Nation Schematic of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model @NWS
Is there a common theme to recent events? Several: - Slow moving weather systems a blocked up atmosphere - Multiple events in close succession or 1 or 2 slow movers - Resulted in saturated antecedent conditions - Each fed by a tropical connection - Plumes of deep moisture Atmospheric Water Vapor
A warming planet and shrinking Arctic Sea ice September Minimum Sea Ice Cover 1979-2016 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Summer Minimum This graph shows the average area covered by sea ice during September each year. Minimum sea ice extent has decreased 12% per decade since 1979. Data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Arctic sea ice concentration on the date of the 2016 minimum extent, September 10, 2016. NOAA Climate.gov image based on NOAA and NASA satellite data from NSIDC.
Is there a Plausible Climate Hypothesis? Modest changes in air & sea temperatures = atmosphere can hold more moisture New England is in close proximity to the ocean and the Gulf & Atlantic moisture streams Affected by dual storm tracks and blocking high pressure over Greenland These ingredients offer us more opportunities to latch onto these plumes Reduction of sea ice changes upper level wind flow Blocked up pattern induces slower moving storms or back to back to back events
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Pre and Post 1970 Normalized Number of Floods Comparison of the Normalized Number of Minor, Moderate, and Major Floods per Month Pre-1970 to Post-1970 for Southern New England
0.45 Southern New England River Basin Normalized Number of Minor, Moderate, and Major Floods Per Month Prior to 1970 Data provided by 0.4 0.35 Major Floods Moderate Floods Minor Floods 0.3 Number of Floods 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER Month
0.45 Southern New England River Basin Normalized Number of Minor, Moderate, and Major Floods Per Month Post 1970 Data provided by 0.4 0.35 Major Floods Moderate Floods Minor Floods 0.3 Number of Floods 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER Month
The Northeast has become a hot spot for record floods & heavy rainfall in the past 10 years Noticeable trends include increased yearly rainfall and increased annual temperatures Portions of Massachusetts have experienced a 1 to 2 inch shift upwards in the 100 yr 24 hour rainfall infrastruture design changes from the 60 s TP 40 Smaller watersheds & those with significant urbanization are most vulnerable to increased river & stream flooding Drought episodes have become shorter in duration and of a Flash/Rapid Onset variety Wildly varying seasonal snowfall
Visit Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) NWS Boston/Norton 46 Commerce Way Norton, MA.
Precipitation and Recent Trends National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center Thank you! Edward J Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS Boston/Norton Providence Street West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10