Verification of thermal forecasts with glider flight data

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Vifiaion of hmal foass wih glid fligh daa Olivi Lihi, Swizland Eland Lonzn, Ralf Thhos, Gmany Bn Olofsson, Esbjön Olsson, Swdn OSTIV M Panl Blin 26 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Oulin Rgional hmal foass Moologial fligh planning Vifiaion: Tasks, Flighs Modl inompaison ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Foas Rgions Euop Alps ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Topogaphy Cnal Ialy Pyns ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Ciia fo h Slion of Foas Rgions homognous wah dph of onvion loud bas aliud lif a ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Rgional Foas Saifom Clouds Cumulus Clouds X-ouny ondiions Avg. Lif Clouds Sou: p-m@dwd ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Moologial fligh planning fligh pola spd o fly hoy uising spd ponial fligh disan (PFD) ask sing ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Fligh Pola V Z [m/s] 1 2 3 4 5 [m/s] no ballas -1-2 -3 Sglflugzug Glids Ahaopyx Hänggli Hangglid 124 (1:53, 1 km/h) 114 (1:47, 96 km/h) 1 (1:39, 9 km/h) 84 (1:3, 8 km/h) 77 (1:27, 55 km/h) 51 (1:12, 48 km/h) 39 (1: 5, 3 km/h) Indx (Bs Glizahl, Fah) Handiap (BGR@spd) Glishim Paaglid -4 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 spd Fah [km/h] [km/h] ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Fligh pola in iula fligh 5 Radius [m] 1. -.5 12:1 28 km/h Spp Buzzad 27:1 55 km/h Ahaopyx 53:1 1 km/h 39:1 9 km/h V z [m/s] 3:1 8 km/h -1. 12:1 48 km/h 6:1 3 km/h -1.5 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Radial lif pofil in hmals -2-1 1 Radius [m] 2 5 5 4 hmal lif [m/s] good 4 3 3 2 moda 2 1 wak 1 vaious soas sink a [m/s] -1-1 -2-1 1 2 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

X-ouny Spd X-ouny spd [km/h] 12 1 Handiap (BGR) 124 (1:53) 25 m 114 (1:47) 18 m 1 (1:39) 15 m 8 84 (1:3) 15 m old 6 77 (1:27) Ahaopyx 4 5 (1:12) Hangglid 2 38 (1: 5) Paaglid 1 2 3 Climb Ra [m/s] in Thmals Mils Sign [m/s] in d Thmik ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Ponial Fligh Disan (PFD) ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

26 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

25: Swdn ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D. O. Lihi CH-844 Winhu

Rgional Foass: Lif & Wind Sou: p-m@dwd ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Tmpoal and Spaial Rsoluion of Moologial Infomaion uising spd v = 1 km/h = x / = 3 min x = 5 km i.. A = x* x =2 5km2 Suh soluion is quid fo fligh planning... and i is availabl! ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Fligh Task B A C ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

gimp gimp soaing gimp soaing soaing VZ VZ V dépa gliding limbing dpau limbing limbing Fligh Phass soaing vol hmiqu VZ VZ Z VZ plain plain hillslif moyn mounains hau lif A B C ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Fligh Phass gliding aival soaing finaldsn glid dsn vol hmiqu soaing VZ VZ aivé plain plain A moyn hillslif hau lif mounains B C ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Task Sou: SYou ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

dpau im fo bs spd dpau slo ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Fligh Pola in Cons Soaing 1 2 3 4 5 [m/s] -1-2 Class BGR @ spd Opn 56:1 @ 13 km/h 18m 49:1 @ 12 km/h 15m 46:1 @ 11 km/h Sandad 44:1 @ 11 km/h ballas -3-4 5 1 15 2 25 [km/h] spd [km/h] ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

X-ouny Spd XC spd [km/h] Opn 18m 15m / Sandad 12 houly fligh disan 1 8 6 Class BGR @ spd Opn 56:1 @ 13 km/h 18m 49:1 @ 12 km/h 15m 46:1 @ 11 km/h Sandad 44:1 @ 11 km/h 4 ballas 2 1 2 3 4 o spd [m/s] in ising bubbls 1 wak 2 moda 3 limb a [m/s] of glids good ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Vifiaions Tasks: 24, 25, 26 Flighs: 26 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Swiss Glid 24 187 km 351 km 263 km RC 355 km 59 km 461 km NC 328 km 289 km 531 km NC ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Task Vifiaion @ Swiss Glid 24 Sod (kph) al i gndl i f 12 Couns Opn Class 18m Class Sandad Class 1 12 12 8 8 6 d ou s d ou s 4 8 al i gndl i f 4 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12-4 -3-2 Pdid (kph) -1 1 2 3 4 Eo (%) 54 sod flighs @ Swiss Glid 24 (9 days wih 3 asks, 1. and 2. pla) ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

VikingGlid 25 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.6 2.6 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Task Vifiaion @ Viking Glid 25 14.6. Couns undsimad 2.6. 12 15.6. -2% 12 18.6. 1 19.6. 16.6. 8 23.6. ovsimad 8 6 4 na fons 14 % alignd lif +2% aua Sod (kph) 4 12 8 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 Pdid (kph) -4-2 Eo (%) 2 4 46 sod flighs @ Viking Glid 25 (7 days, 23 asks, 1. and 2. pla) ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Tasks @ Eskilsuna, Rii, Vinon in 26 Task Vifiaion 16 y = 1.1445x 14 Sod spd (kph) fo h sod disan Spaghi Spaghi Rii Rii 26 26 WGC Swdn 26 WGC 26 WGC Swdn Vinon 26 Lina Lina (WGC (WGC Swdn Swdn 26) 26) Lina (Spaghi Rii 26) 26) (WGC Swdn Lina (Spaghi Rii 26) Lina (WGC Vinon 26) y = 1.52x 12 y = 1.2191x 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 TTC pdid spd (kph) fo h s ask ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

TopTask fligh vifiaions 25: Swdn (1 fligh) 26: Fan (1 fligh) 26: Swdn, Ialy, Fan (WGC flighs) ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

fligh simulaion ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

26: Eskilsuna Fligh Vifiaion 16 TTC spd analysis (kph) fo h fligh pah 14 y = 1.1168x WGC Swdn 26 12 Lina (WGC Swdn 26) 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 TTC spd simulaion (kph) fo h fligh pah ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

26: Eskilsuna, Vinon Fligh Vifiaion 16 TTC spd analysis (kph) fo h fligh pah 14 y = 1.3631x y = 1.1168x WGC Swdn 26 WGC Vinon 26 12 Lina (WGC Swdn 26) Lina (WGC Vinon 26) 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 TTC spd simulaion (kph) fo h fligh pah ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

26: Eskilsuna, Vinon, Rii Fligh Vifiaion 16 y = 1.463x TTC spd analysis (kph) fo h fligh pah 14 y = 1.3631x y = 1.1168x WGC Swdn 26 Spaghi Glid 26 WGC Vinon 26 12 Lina (WGC Swdn 26) Lina (Spaghi Glid 26) Lina (WGC Vinon 26) 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 TTC spd simulaion (kph) fo h fligh pah ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Inompaison TOPTHERM @ Viking Glid Sod [km/h] 15 ouns 2 2 Sod 125 TOPTHERM 1 1 1 75 TOPTHERM 5 5 75 1 125 15 Modl [km/h] 5 75 1 125 15 [km/h] ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Inompaison HIRLAM @ Viking Glid Sod [km/h] 15 ouns 2 2 Sod 125 HIRLAM 1 1 1 75 HIRLAM 5 5 75 1 125 15 Modl [km/h] 5 75 1 125 15 [km/h] ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Inompaison of HL and TT ouns 2 HIRLAM [km/h] 15 2 TOPTHERM 125 HIRLAM 1 1 1 75 5 5 75 1 125 15 TOPTHERM [km/h] 5 75 1 125 15 [km/h] ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Vifiaion of HL and TT Sod [km/h] 15 ouns 2 2 Sod 125 TOPTHERM HIRLAM 1 1 1 75 5 5 TOPTHERM HIRLAM 75 1 125 15 Modl [km/h] 5 75 1 125 15 [km/h] 46 sod flighs @ Viking Glid 25 (7 days, 23 asks, 1. and 2. pla) ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Conlusions (1) 5% of h ask spd foass a good o xlln Alignd lif an b psn Timing of moving fons may b iky Lag sizd gions a a limiing fao fo h pision Modl uning wih odd flighs: inas of h TOPTHERM limb as fo Rii and Vinon in 27 ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Conlusions (2) A gliding ompiions h foas TopTask spd is a good sima of h winn sspd Th onp of gionalizd hmal foass povids moologial fligh planning o h soaing ommuniy in usful qualiy. ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu

Oulook Moologial fligh planning an b xpd o b availabl also fo fuu WGC Numial pdiions of alignd lif as and hi us in fligh planning a und dvlopmn Thank you fo you anion! ANALYSEN& KONZEPTE D h i CH844Wi n hu