Country Presentation-Nepal Mt.Everest, Shiva Pd. Nepal, DHM South Asia Drought Monitor Workshop Dhaka Bangladesh 2 th April 215
Overview Brief Climatology Climate activities- DHM PPCR (Pilot Program for Climate Resilience) and BRCH Drought related activities in Nepal
Brief Climatology -General Seasons in Nepal Nepal is strongly Influenced by Monsoon Circulation Based on Monsoon Phenomenon Four Seasons Pre- Monsoon( March-May) Monsoon( June September) Post Monsoon( October- November) Winter ( December- February)
Normal rainfall (mm) % of Normal rainfall Seasonal/Monthly Rainfall Variation 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 79.8 12.5 3.5 4.2 Winter Premonsoon Monsoon Postmonsoon Season 6 Monthly Rainfall Variation 5 4 49 428 3 285 271 2 1 137 22 28 35 59 67 1 15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ju l Au g Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Source: DHM
Normal Monsoon and winter Rainfall Pattern 3 3 Dadeldhura Monsoon Normal precipitation (mm) (1981-21) Jumla Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm) Dadeldhura Dipayal 29 Dhangadhi 29 Dhangadhi Surkhet Nepalgunj Jumla Dipayal Pokhara Surkhet Nepalgunj Dang 28 Pokhara Dang 28 Kathmandu Kathmandu Bhairahawa Bhairahawa Taplejung Okhaldhunga Simara Dhankuta 27 Dhankuta 27 Biratnagar 8 25 5 81 2 1 15 2 25 3 35 82 83 84 85 Taplejung Okhaldhunga Simara 86 87 88 8 81 4 6 8 82 1 12 83 Biratnagar 14 84 85 86 87 88
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Rainfall (mm) Monsoon Trends Onset & Withdrawal Trend of Monsoon Onset 19 18 17 Trend of Monsoon Withdrawal 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 Source: Saraju K Baidya,, M. L. Shrestha Year No trend
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 23 25 25 27 27 Days Rainfall Extremes 12 115 1 11 15 8 1 95 6 9 4 85 8 2 75 7 y =.4161x + 63.581 Number Number of days of with rainy rain days >= 1 mm y = -.1653x + 14.37 R 2 R 2 =.563 =.664 Year Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 1 mm/day) Source : S. Baidya,DHM
1-Jun 12-Jun 23-Jun 4-Jul 15-Jul 26-Jul 6-Aug 17-Aug 28-Aug 8-Sep 19-Sep 3-Sep Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (%) Heavy rainfall of 13-15 th August, 214 Western Nepal flood (13-14 August 214) People Death Missing Injured 96 115 32-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 16 12 8 4 Surkhet Accum. Normal Accum. 214(mm / %) 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Date
Characteristics of Winter Precipitation 3 Fig.2: Winter normal precipitation (mm) Dadeldhura 29 Dhangadhi Surkhet Nepalgunj y = -1.419x + 294.1 y =.69x + 47.48 Jumla Dipayal Pokhara Dang 28 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 83 Biratnagar 14 84 85 86 87 88 Year Winter Fog/ cold wave Winter droughts becoming more frequent Severe Extreme droughts observed in the recent decade 211 82 12 26 1 21 8 1996 81 6 1971 8 4 1991 2 1986 27 1981 Dhankuta 1976 Taplejung Okhaldhunga Simara Rainfall (mm) Kathmandu Bhairahawa
Winter drought SPI in 26 drought SPI in 29 drought -3-2.5-2 -1.5-1. -3-2.5-2 -1.5-1 -.5 SPI in 28 drought SPI Value: Drought Category: 2. and above Extremely wet -2.5-2 -1.5-1 -.5 Source : S. Baidya,DHM Water table decreased Wells, tube-wells, natural water spouts dried Water shortage Energy crisis declared (up to 16 hours of load-shedding/day) 1.5 to 1.99 Very wet 1. to 1.49 Moderately wet -.99 to.99 Near normal -1. to -1.49 Moderately dry -1.5 to -1.99 Severely dry -2. and less Extremely dry
Climate Activities-DHM Extreme Rainfall and Air Temperature Monitoring Daily temperature monitoring and Rainfall monitoring Monsoon Monitoring Weekly, Monthly and Seasonal Climate Reports Year Book publication
1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 2-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 1-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 2-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 1-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep Temperature anomaly ( C) Temperature anomaly ( C) Temperature ( C) Temperature ( C) Daily Temperature Monitoring at Kathmandu Airport 35 Daily Maximum temperature 35 Daily Minimum temperature 3 3 25 25 2 15 2 15 1 1 5 5 Day (Month) Normal 2 12 Day (Month) Nor mal 2 12 8 Daily Maximum temperature anomaly 8 Daily Minimum temperature anomaly 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 -6-8 -8 Day (Month) Day (Month)
1-Jun 12-Jun 23-Jun 4-Jul 15-Jul 26-Jul 6-Aug 17-Aug 28-Aug 8-Sep 19-Sep 3-Sep Source : DHM Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (%) 1-Jun 12-Jun 23-Jun 4-Jul 15-Jul 26-Jul 6-Aug 17-Aug 28-Aug 8-Sep 19-Sep 3-Sep 1-Jun 12-Jun 23-Jun 4-Jul 15-Jul 26-Jul 6-Aug 17-Aug 28-Aug 8-Sep 19-Sep 3-Sep Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (%) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (%) Monsoon 214 Accumulated Rainfall 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Janakpur Accum. Normal Accum. 214(mm / %) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Kathmandu Accum. Normal Accum. 214(mm / %) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Date Date 16 14 12 Simara 1 9 8 7 1 6 8 5 6 4 2 Accum. Normal Accum. 214(mm / %) 4 3 2 1 Date
Source : DHM Nepal Average Monsoon Rainfall in 214 Nearly 87%
Project: Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (BRCH) Main Objectives Increase government capacity to mitigate Climate-related hazards by improving the accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood forecasts. Early Warnings for climate vulnerable communities. Developing agricultural management information system services to help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks.
Under PPCR BRCH project: Establishment of 3 Radio sound Stations ( Vertical profile of Atmosphere). Establishment of 1 AWS (15 Agro met) and 74 Hydrological stations Establishment of 3 Weather Radar Stations to cover whole Nepal. Establishment of GIS Lab Improvement of Forecasting skills 3 to 5 days Improvement of Seasonal forecasting skills. Developing agricultural management information system services to help farmers to mitigate climate-related production risks -Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in 25 pilot districts
AMIS Projects Pilot Districts
Proposed agro call center
Proposed SMS services
Proposed web portal
Drought related activities in Nepal Winter Drought monitoring -few case study using SPI ( DHM) Satellite Remote sensing based Crop Monitoring System (ICIMOD) Agro Advisory and weather based Crop insurance for Formers in 25 Pilot districts in Nepal ( PPCR project ( MoAD/DHM /NARC) Use of Space Technology for Drought Monitoring and Early Warning in Nepal (UNESCAP up coming project )