How the Bureau of Meteorology contributes to the integrated risk picture. Presented by Michael Berechree

How the Bureau of Meteorology contributes to the integrated risk picture Presented by Michael Berechree

Mission Meteorological Service The mission of the Bureau's Aviation Meteorological Service is to enhance the safety, regularity and efficiency of national and international civil aviation operations through the provision of accurate, timely and relevant forecasts, warnings and other information, whilst meeting Australia's obligations under international agreements for the provision of meteorological services for international aviation.

Weather and Impacts Significant weather has the ability to disrupt air traffic flow and generate significant delays across Australian airspace. The effective management and understanding of weather and its impacts on ATM systems and airline flight operations is significant in improving the safety and cost-efficiency of airline operations and the provision of ATM services.

Weather and Impacts (future improvements) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 1hr model runs 10min time steps 1.5km grid

Consultation Process The Bureau of Meteorology works closely with the aviation community to establish work programs and projects designed to improve forecasting and meteorological services that directly improve the safety of flight operations across the Australian FIRs Consultative Process includes topics such as ATM managed through the Bureau/Airservices MOU Major Airport and Regional Services Upper-airspace Volcanic Ash

Meteorological Projects Projects designed to improve aviation meteorological services and products: RAWS Review into Aviation Weather Services TAOCCC - Trial Automation (Canberra, Cairns and Coolangatta) AvCam - Aviation Weather Cameras C-AWIS - Centralised Automated Information Weather System AvGAS - Aviation Graphical Area Forecast, AIRMET and SIGMET VAOIP - Volcanic Ash Operational Improvement

RAWS Project Vision: Enhancing the safety and economy of aviation operations every day through world-class meteorological services and insight

RAWS Changes and Benefits Today Multi-service focus with meteorologists in Statebased offices providing forecasting for both aviation and public weather. Tomorrow Dedicated aviation specialists with a deeper understanding of industry requirements and sensitivities. Staff and ICT distributed across 12 aviation centres- changes to systems or services need extensive planning and coordination. Business improvements swifter due to consolidation of people and ICT. The current service delivery model has been demonstrated to be reliable and promotes a depth of local knowledge. Two aviation centres underpin continuity while structured training and smart technologies will maintain and deepen local aviation knowledge. State-based service limits the Bureau s ability to implement new services efficiently. Operations that can efficiently scale to tactical loads and accommodate service expansion.

RAWS Service Model

Implementation of RAWS

TAOCCC Aim: assess the capability of instrumentation to produce an ICAO compliant automated observation at a major airport Trial Automated Observation Trial fully automated system METAR/SPECI that meets ICAO requirements Failover/failback between primary and back-up systems LIMS - Lightning into METAR/SPECI Provide a solution to integrate global lightning data Produce METAR/SPECI with thunderstorm reports Improve forecaster situational awareness Install additional sensors (Ceilometer & Vismeters) Strategic locations at a distance from the airport Assist forecasting processes

TAOCCC

TAOCCC ICAO Annex 3, Chapter 4, Paragraph 4.6.4.1 Thunderstorms (including in the vicinity) (TS, VCTS) Rain (RA) Drizzle (DZ) Snow & Freezing Precipitation (and their intensity) (-SN, SN, +SN, -FZDZ, FZDZ, +FZDZ, -FZRA, FZRA, +FZRA) Fog (FG) Freezing Fog (FZFG) Haze (HZ) Mist (BR)

TAOCCC (Lightning in SPECI)

TAOCCC (Lightning in SPECI) Automated Thunderstorm Alert Service (ATSAS)

AvCam This system will enable better access to visual assessment of weather at aerodromes with limited or no manual observations coverage or where physical obstructions prevent observers from fully surveying the aerodrome and runway areas.

AvCam Weather cameras are used as an aid for forecasters to support aviation weather services, and key aviation stake holders via password protected services. Enable better access to visual assessment of weather at aerodromes that have limited observations. Full 360 o Updated every minute

AvCam Current and proposed locations. 2017/18 FY to include ARFOR critical locations, Bowral and Mt Victoria (NSW) on AREA 21, Mt Victoria and Murrurundi (NSW) on AREA 20.

AvCam

C-AWIS To develop a Centralised Automated Information Weather System (C-AWIS) data processing system and phone service. As of 25 May 2017 the current AWIS service has been decommissioned and replaced by C-AWIS. The project is also trialing a new proof-of-concept aerodrome text-to-speech (TTS) box known as C-AWIS Aerodrome TTS (CATTS) box replacing the obsolete Aerodrome Weather Information Broadcast (AWIB) unit. Approximately 100 existing AWIS sites where broadcast capability is required

AvGAS The project is designed to: Generate SIGMETs, AIRMETs and Graphical Area Forecasts (GAFs) using a single graphical interface from all MWOs to ensure these products are delivered in the most efficient, consistent and coordinated manner. Have a collaboration tool that will improve coordination between Bureau Forecasting Centres, especially when a single SIGMET event affects multiple MWOs or when a single AIRMET event affect multiple ARFORs or GAFs Provide industry with additional graphical products Allow a simpler transition to generating ICAO meteorological exchange model (IWXXM) format Final implementation expected to be Nov 2017

AvGAS (AIRMET)

AvGAS (SIGMET)

AvGAS (SIGMET) IDV60075 AUSTRALIAN SIGMETS 21:41 UTC, 26/05/2017 -------------------------------------------------------------------- YMMM SIGMET B14 VALID 262203/270203 YMMC- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR EMBD TS OBS WI S0200 E09200 - S0330 E09420 - S0610 E09250 - S0750 E08410 - S0450 E07840 - S0200 E08250 TOP FL500 STNR NC RMK: MW= YMMM SIGMET K01 VALID 262118/270118 YMMC- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR SQL TS OBS WI S3650 E13540 - S3630 E13630 - S4200 E14150 - S4220 E14100 TOP FL220 MOV E 20KT NC RMK: ME= YMMM SIGMET H02 VALID 262100/270100 YMHF- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR SEV TURB FCST WI YSAC - IRONS - YSTH - S4330 E14800 - YMSY SFC/8000FT STNR NC RMK: ME= YMMM SIGMET D08 VALID 262000/270000 YMMC- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR SEV TURB FCST WI S3700 E13000 - S4300 E13700 - S4700 E14100 - S5000 E14200 - S5000 E13600 - S4500 E13600 - S4000 E12900 FL180/300 MOV E 10KT WKN RMK: MM= YMMM SIGMET J01 VALID 262000/270000 YMRF- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR SEV TURB FCST WI YEDE - MCD - S3900 E14400 - S3900 E14240 SFC/6000FT STNR NC RMK: ME= YMMM SIGMET B13 VALID 261803/262203 YMMC- YMMM MELBOURNE FIR EMBD TS OBS WI S0400 E09500 - S0700 E09400 - S0900 E08200 - S0200 E08200 - S0200 E09200 TOP FL500 STNR NC RMK: MW=

AvGAS (GAF)

Volcanic Ash Strength of Evidence Assessment (VASEA) The VASEA is a VAAC Darwin supplementary product which graphically depicts confidence in the observation (T+0) polygon of a Volcanic Ash Advisory. Blue boundaries represent high confidence and; Pink boundaries represent low confidence. Background imagery and forecaster notes relating specifically to the assignment of confidence are incorporated into the product.

VAOIP A high confidence boundary will be issued when the boundary between ash and no ash is sharply discernible E.g. when the distance between a clearly discernible volcanic ash pixel and a pixel which is clearly not discernable as volcanic ash in satellite imagery is less than or equal to 6 km (2-3 pixels in IR).

Volcanic Ash A low confidence boundary will be used when sufficient evidence exists of an eruption, but the edge of the ash is either obscured or not clearly defined e.g. when the distance between a clearly discernible volcanic ash pixel and a pixel which is clearly not discernable as volcanic ash in satellite imagery is greater than 6 km (2-3 pixels in IR).

Part or all of the ash plume is obscured by meteorological cloud. The ash plume cannot be observed in visible imagery at night and the ash cannot be discerned in infrared imagery. When the position of the sun is high enough that the light path length is insufficient to discern the ash plume in the visible satellite imagery. When ash dissipation or change in wind direction creates a plume where the edge of the ash is not distinct. In this case it can be difficult to discern the extent of the ash. Volcanic Ash Factors that influence confidence:

Volcanic Ash Example - shows an ash plume observed on visible satellite imagery. The proximal edges of the plume feature a high contrast between the clearly discernible volcanic ash and the ground, therefore high confidence boundaries has been assigned. The more distant edges are less clear due to the presence of meteorological cloud and low confidence boundaries has been applied. The end of the ash plume has also become diffuse and the ash is more transparent, therefore a low confidence boundary has been applied to the plume extent.

Volcanic Ash

Knowledge Centre The Bureau s Aviation Knowledge Centre has extensive information on: Products and services Hazardous phenomena Reference Material, including aerodrome reference cards

Knowledge Centre Reference Material, including aerodrome reference cards: Noise Abatement Terminal Area (TMA) Airport Acceptance Rates (AAR) Ground Delay Program Nomination Of Runways Forecasting for applicable airport: Thunderstorms Fog Cloud and visibility Wind

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