Stratospheric Processes: Influence on Storm Tracks and the NAO. Mark P. Baldwin

Stratospheric Processes: Influence on Storm Tracks and the NAO Mark P. Baldwin Mark P. Baldwin, University of Exeter Imperial College 12 December 2012

(From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 2001)

60 Days (From Baldwin and Dunkerton, Science 2001)

British Snow Storms

a Observed Average Surface Pressure Anomalies (hpa) 60 days following weak stratospheric winds 60 days following strong stratospheric winds b -1 Strong Vortex Regimes 0 0 4 0 Text 0 2-10 2-1 0 0-1 b From Baldwin and Dunkerton., 2001

westerly phases of the QBO, respectively (Fig. 1). The predictability that derives from the ENSO phenomenon is assessed by repeating the analysis that was performed for the QBO, but for composites based on warm versus cold years of the ENSO cycle, as defined by the eight warmest and eight coldest JFM-mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue region (6 S-6 N, 180 W-90 W). Surface temperature anomalies Days 1-60 following stratospheric anomalies QBO easterly-westerly ENSO (warm-cold) FIG 2. The difference in daily mean surface temperature anomalies between the 60-day interval following the onset of weak and strong vortex conditions at 10-hPa (left panel); between Januarys when the QBO is easterly and westerly (middle panel); and between winters (JanuaryMarch) corresponding to the warm and cold episodes of the ENSO cycle (right panel). The samples used in the analysis are documented in Fig. 1. Contour levels are at 0.5 C. From Thompson et al., J. Climate 2002 4

Observed Average Surface Pressure Anomalies (hpa) Text From Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001

Weather Extremes Related to Stratospheric Variability Severe cold weather at high latitudes is more common during weak vortex events. Winter weather extremes (low temperatures, snow, etc.) are much more common during weak vortex events. Atlantic blocking occurs almost exclusively during weak vortex events. Strong winds and ocean wave events are much more common during strong vortex events.

Baroclinic eddies! Internal tropospheric dynamics! Vertical shear! PV inversion! Wave, mean-flow interaction! Barotropic mode!

Baldwin and Dunkerton (JGR 1999) suggested that the redistribution of mass in the stratosphere, in response to changes in wave driving, may be sufficient to influence the surface pressure significantly, consistent with the theoretical results of Haynes and Shepherd (1989). 10

Wave Driven Pump Wave Drag Anomalous wave drag leads to variations in vortex strength

FIG. 4.Schematicofthebendingofisentropicsurfaces(labeled 0, 1,and 2 )towardapositivepotentialvorticityanomaly.the arrows represent winds associated with the potential vorticity anomaly, becoming weaker away from the anomaly. Diagram from Ambaum and Hoskins J Climate (2002). 12

-0.35 5 0.45 Polar cap PV600K Index ~20-25 hpa Correlation between JFM PV 600K Index and Zonal-Mean PV Anomalies, JFM 800-5 -0.15-0.25-0.35-0.45-0.55 0.55 5 700 Potential Temperature 600 500 0.15-0.15-0.25-0.35-0.45-0.55-0.65-0.25-5 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95 0.75 0.65 400 300 5-5 -5 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Latitude Create an index of vortex strength as defined by PV at 600K (20-25 hpa). -0.15-5 -5-0.15 5 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 5-5 0.55 13

90 Composite of 24 negative events: PV at 600K 80 70 Latitude 60 50 40 30 20-120 -80-40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) 90 80 Composite of 23 positive events: PV at 600K 70 Latitude 60 50 40 30 20-120 -80-40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) 14

850 Composite of 24 negative events: PV at Equivalent Lat 70N Potential Temperature 700 600 530 475 430 395 350 300 265 850-120 -80-40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) Composite of 23 positive events: PV at Equivalent Lat 70N Potential Temperature 700 600 530 475 430 395 350 300 265-120 -80-40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) From Baldwin and Birner, in prep. 15

850 Composite of 24 negative events: PV at Equivalent Lat 70N Potential Temperature 700 600 530 475 430 395 350 300 265 850 Weak Vortex Event -120-80 -40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) Composite of 23 positive events: PV at Equivalent Lat 70N Potential Temperature 700 600 530 475 430 395 350 300 265 Strong Vortex Event -120-80 -40 0 40 80 120 Lag (Days) From Baldwin and Birner, in prep. 15

Composite Anomalous Pressure, 33 Weak Vortex events PV index at 600K Pressure Anomaly, 7 hpa between ticks 330K 320K 315K 310K 305K -90-60 -30 0 30 60 90 Lag (days) 17

10 Correlation: JFM Polar Cap PV600K Index with Tbar 0.2-0.2-0.4 20 0.2 0.4-0.6 600K surface 30 0.4-0.8 50 70 0.2 100 0.4 hpa -0.2 200 300 0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 + PV anom. - PV anom. 500 700-0.2 1000-90 -70-50 -30-10 10 30 50 70 90 Latitude CorrelaAon during winter (JFM) between the 600K PV index and zonal- mean temperature. The JFM daily correlaaon between PV530 and polar cap tropopause T anomalies is 0.90. From Baldwin and Birner, in prep. 18

Effects on baroclinic eddies 19

Effects on baroclinic eddies Papritz and Spengler (2015, QJ) proposed using the slope of isentropic surfaces as a measure for baroclinicity. 19

Effects on baroclinic eddies Papritz and Spengler (2015, QJ) proposed using the slope of isentropic surfaces as a measure for baroclinicity. The larger the slope, the larger the potential for baroclinic disturbances to gain kinetic energy by baroclinic conversion. 19

10 Correlation: JFM Polar Cap PV600K Index with Tbar 0.2-0.2-0.4 20 0.2 0.4-0.6 600K surface 30 0.4-0.8 50 70 0.2 100 0.4 hpa -0.2 200 300 0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 + PV anom. - PV anom. 500 700 1000-90 -70-50 -30-10 10 30 50 70 90 Latitude CorrelaAon during winter (JFM) between the 600K PV index and zonal- mean temperature. The JFM daily correlaaon between PV530 and polar cap tropopause T anomalies is 0.90. From Baldwin and Birner, in prep. -0.2 NAO+ 20

10 Correlation: JFM Polar Cap PV600K Index with Tbar 0.2-0.2-0.4 20 0.2 0.4-0.6 600K surface 30 0.4-0.8 50 70 0.2 100 0.4 hpa -0.2 200 300 0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 + PV anom. - PV anom. 500 700 1000-90 -70-50 -30-10 10 30 50 70 90 Latitude CorrelaAon during winter (JFM) between the 600K PV index and zonal- mean temperature. The JFM daily correlaaon between PV530 and polar cap tropopause T anomalies is 0.90. From Baldwin and Birner, in prep. -0.2 NAO 21

Anomalous Baroclinicity (slope of isentropic surfaces) NAO CorrelaAon during winter (JFM) between the 600K PV index and zonal- mean temperature. The JFM daily correlaaon between PV530 and polar cap tropopause T anomalies is 0.90. 22

Observed Average Surface Pressure Anomalies (hpa) Text From Baldwin and Dunkerton., 2001

a Observed Average Surface Pressure Anomalies (hpa) 60 days following weak stratospheric winds b -1 Strong Vortex Regimes 0 0 4 0 Text 0 2-10 2-1 0 0-1 b From Baldwin and Dunkerton., 2001

Movement of mass by the wave- driven pump wave- driven pump Changing modest the tropospheric depth of the effect? troposphere affects 1) voracity in the column, and 2) surface pressure. 26

DiagnosAc for observaaons or models Regression between PV600K index and Polar Cap p ERA- 40 observaaons 27

DiagnosAc for observaaons or models Regression between PV600K index and Polar Cap p ERA- 40 observaaons Tropospheric amplificaaon 27

Summary 28

Summary The stratospheric wave-driven pump creates PV anomalies corresponding to weak and strong vortex conditions. Equivalently, it moves mass into and out of the polar cap. This is the annular mode pattern. Both PV theory and mass movement explain 1) why the surface pattern looks like the NAO, and why the NAO is the preferred response to stratospheric forcing. Consistent with PV theory, vertical motion in the UTLS displaces isentropic surfaces (and the tropopause) in a north-south dipole. This changes the slopes of isentropic surfaces in the UTLS which should affect eddy growth rates, and enhance N-S movement of mass reinforcing the NAO signal. 28