S2S @ CPC Dan Collins and Emily Becker* NOAA Climate Predic9on Center with slides from Jon Go?schalck and Dave DeWi? * and Innovim
CPC odds and ends Official U.S. NWS S2S climate forecasts Two Branches: 1. Opera9onal Predic9on Branch 2. Opera9onal Monitoring Branch Plus over 40% of CPC are contractor support scien9sts CTB director sits at CPC NCEP co-pi requirement for CTB proposals EMC and CPC directors sign off on R2O transi9on plans
Opera1onal forecasts
CPC Subseasonal to Seasonal Outlooks Outlook Variables Type Frequency Release Date and Time Days 8-14 Temp/Precip Probabilis@c Daily Daily 3 PM ET Week 3/4 Temp/Precip Probabilis@c (2-category) Weekly Friday 3 PM ET Monthly Temp/Precip Probabilis@c 2x per month 3 rd Thurs of month / Last day of month Seasonal Temp/Precip Probabilis@c 1x per month 3 rd Thursday of month Monthly drought Seasonal drought U.S. Hazards Global Tropics, Africa, etc. Drought tendency Drought tendency Temps, precip, winds, etc. Precip, TCs, etc. 8:30 AM, 3 PM ET 8:30 AM ET Categorical 1x per month Last day of month 3 PM ET Categorical 1x per month 3 rd Thursday of month 8:30 AM ET Categorical Daily Monday - Friday 3 PM ET Categorical Weekly Tuesday or Wednesday 12 PM ET
Week-2 Outlooks - Three-category (A/N/B) - Automa9on level: high Forecaster considera9ons: Overall model system agreement Ensemble spread Run-to-run con9nuity, outliers Consistency with tropical forcing? Slowly evolving boundary condi9ons (snow, soil moisture, local SSTs)
Week-2 Outlooks ESRL Reforecast Hindcast Calibra9on NAEFS Recent Condi9ons Calibra9on
Experimental week 3/4 subseasonal forecasts - Two categories: Above/Below - Automa9on level: moderate (?) - Cross-branch ac9vity within CPC with contribu9ons from Scripps/GFDL, ESSIC, and ESRL PSD. Forecaster considera9ons: Dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, JMA, and Environment Canada, and eventually NCEP Global Ensemble Predic9on system. U9lizes sta@s@cal tools including: MJO-ENSO Phase Model (CTB project.) Coupled Linear-Inverse Model (C-LIM). Constructed Analog Addi9onal Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) MME models to provide model guidance, once in real-9me (FY2018)
Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks Three-category (Above/Below; EC) Automa9on level: pre?y low Forecaster considera9ons: 1. ENSO and MJO 2. Snow cover, soil moisture, local SST 3. Sta9s9cal guidance CCA, Constructed analogues, Trends 4. Dynamical guidance NMME, CFSv2, IRI, IMME
Drought Outlooks Drought category tendency outlooks (monthly and seasonal) Range of 9mescales used: --Short-, medium-, extended-and longrange model guidance and forecast tools --CPC extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks Impact of climatological wet and dry seasons also play a role
Hazards US Extremes and hazards Weeks 1-2 only Categorical (right) Experimental Probabilis9c (below)
Hazards global tropical Iden9fica9on and predic9on of coherent tropical subseasonal and seasonal variability are important for S2S TC predic9on MJO and ENSO but also atmospheric Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, etc. Only week 1 and 2 currently
Hazards seasonal hurricane outlooks Annually in late May; update August Forecaster considera9ons: AMO ENSO model guidance CFSv2 NMME CFS tropical cyclone guidance
ENSO Monthly on the second Thursday Consensus forecast from 11 CPC and IRI forecasters, each of whom uses different sources Provides guidance to seasonal forecasters
MJO and other subseasonal climate modes U9lized by forecasters for tropical hazards Forecasts from interna9onal opera9onal centers available this is the product of a 2006 US Clivar Working Group and MJO Task Force. NAO, AO, AAO, PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/clivar/clivar_wh.shtml
Challenges and current events
Forecast communica9on Developed in conjunc@on with the Weather Forecast Office in Pendleton, Oregon
Forecast communica1on Probability of Exceedence NOW Later (soon? Hopefully?)