Weather and climate resilience: a short-term and long-term perspective for European aviation Rachel Burbidge and Christian Faber, EUROCONTROL MOWE-IT Regional Conference, Berlin, 09 September 2014
CG13 Climate Change Risk and Resilience Task Objectives: Is climate change a risk for European aviation? Do we need to take action? What, when, where and whom? 2
Key risks by impact area Impact Area Climate Impact En-route airport operations airport infrastruture Precipitation change disruption to operations e.g. airfield flooding, ground subsidence, reduction in airport throughput drainage system capacity inundation of underground infrastructure e.g. electrical inundation of ground surface access Temperature change Sea-level rise Changes in performance / noise impact heat damage to airport surface (runway, taxiway) increased heating and cooling requirements Impact on en-route capacity due to loss of ground capacity loss of airport capacity loss of airport infrastructure Wind changes convective weather: disruption to operations, route extensions jet stream: increase in en-route turbulence convective weather: disruption to operations local wind patterns: disruption to operations, changes to distribution of noise impact damage to infrastructure Extreme events disruption to operations, route extensions disruption to operations damage to infrastructure Source: based on ACI-EUROPE, AEN, DGAC, EUROCONTROL, LHR, MMU, NATS (2014, forthcoming) 3
Growth and adaptation: a double challenge Projected changes in annual near-surface temperature 2021-2050 (relative 1961-1990 mean) Projected changes in annual precipitation 2021-2050 (relative 1961-1990 mean) Traffic Growth: 2012-2035 by State 4 4
So, are we prepared? Two-stage stakeholder consultation: Stage Survey 1: Survey Objectives: Operational stakeholders: ANSPs, airport What does the European aviation sector think? operators, aircraft operators, industry associations, CAAs Might climate change affect its business and operations? Should we consider taking measures to adapt? Stage What actions 2: Workshop and initiatives are planned or underway? Operational stakeholders, decision-makers, research community 5 5
Number Survey Parameters 1st October to 21 November 2012 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% ANSP Airport operator Aircraft Operator CAA Industry Association ANSP and Airport Operator 35% response rate Respondents All climate zones covered 6 6
Does your organisation... It is not the task of my organisation Risk/opportunity not yet assessed Not yet on the long-term agenda. N = 33 Do not expect climate change to cause us any significant impacts Risk/Opportunity not yet assessed N = 29 Too early Do not have information Do not have financial resources Not aware of need N = 25 7 7
Barriers to adaptation Obstacles that can be overcome with concerted effort, creative management, change of thinking, prioritization, and related shifts in resources, land uses, institutions, etc. Moser and Ekstrom 2010, p.22026 8
Challenge: Climate Resilence Solutions: integrate resilience to climate change as routine part of operational and business planning Identify risks and vulnerabilities (regional,network, local) Identification/implementation of local and network resilience measures Build resilience into current infrastructure and operations planning. No-regrets measures (e.g. SESAR OIs) Cost-effective measures (e.g. training) Increased collaboration with MET (advanced forecasting techniques) Early action is cost-effective 9
London Heathrow Climate Adaptation Plan Study followed 6 steps 1. Model future climate 2. Best practice review 3. Gathering evidence base 4. Risk assessment and adaptation response 5. Report 6. Implement and assure delivery
Example Results Risk ID Risk ID 1 2 3 4 5 A G Moderate Low Excessive Optimal Adequate Inadequate A Action Defines actions that are known and required now to mitigate identified short-term climate related risks E and/or longer-term risks if the solution requires action now Prepare Defines tasks to improve understanding of the cause or solution to a significant short or medium term O P risk. Tasks are therefore predominately research based projections and or Watching Brief Watching brief to be maintained in the short term on the latest climate science developments, A W and the situation on the ground. consequences) I Risk Grading (no adpatation) Existing Control Measures Confidence Business Unit Director/s Risk Climate Variable Threshold (climate projections and Adaptation Response Needed owners Responsible or consequences) Short Term Medium / Long (2020 (to 2020) to 2050s) Summary Adequacy Aviation fuel flash AIRSIDE Prepare: Research into spill clean up options currently used at Flashpoint of aviation fuel exceeded on hot days - Av gas flash point is 38 C. Temperatures during Temp H A R Spill reporting and defined clean up procedures. A potential fire hazard. the summer of 2003 peaked at 37.5C P airports in warmer climates to commence to develop policies robust Airside Airside Director Flashpoint of aviation fuel point is 38 C. to air temperatures exceeding 38 C. Increased incidence of fuel venting from aircraft in warm Prepare: Research into options currently used at airports in Temp Av gas flash point is 38 C. H A A Spill reporting, clean up procedures, PCS. O weather. P Airside Airside Director warmer climates for spill reporting and clean up procedures. exceeded on hot days - Temp Temperatures during H A R Onsite fire brigade, fire water supply and fire mains, Prepare: Ensure that the planned changes and development of the Increased fire risk due to hotter temperatures combined regular drills, smoke and fire detection systems, Temp Uncertain M G A O with increased lightning and drought potential. vegetation management plans, PATS testing of P airport's fire main considers and addresses the potential for Airside Airside Director the summer of 2003 increased fire risk resulting from climate change. electrical equipment. 1 Risks and Control Measures Change in distribution of pests and wildlife species. Potential changes to bird migration patterns and bird strike risk. Reduced lift for departing aircraft due to 'thin air' and reduced engine efficiency in very hot weather. Risk potential fire hazard. Temp Uncertain L G G Temp Aircrfat operate in multiple temp zones, unlikely to be breached Climate Variable H G G R Threshold Significant peaked at 37.5C Confidence (climate PPE, first aid for outdoor workers. Veterinary service, bird management controls. Potential to change load factors, ATM rates, if needed. Existing noise footprint monitoring and mitigation tools. O W E W Risk Grading (no adaptation) Short Term (to 2020) Medium / Long (2020 to 2050s) Watching Brief Airside Airside Director Watching Brief Airside Airside Director 6 Torrential rain creates hazardous conditions for vehicles and planes i.e. airside and landside road vehicles, and taxiing and landing aircraft. Precip. See Strategic Flood Risk Assesment H G A Grooved runway, drainage system, ATC procedures i.e. increased separation distances, runway safety zones, operational guidance for pilots/airside staff, warning signs on motorway network to announce hazardous conditions. O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director 7 Seasonal changes to fog related disruption (increase in winter months, decrease for remainder of year). Fog Low Visibility Procedures when the Runway Visual Range (RVR) is < 600m and/or cloud ceiling is < 200 ft. Projections do not suggest any critical thresholds would be crossed L G G LVPs, operational guidance for pilots and airside vehicles, warning signs on nearby motorway network to alert drivers to hazardous conditions. E W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director 8 Increased risk of schedule interruption from stormy conditions. Storms High wind procedures and cross wind procedures enacted at defined criteria (dependent on aircraft type). L G A ATC procedures i.e. separation distances, contingency plans for disruption. O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director 9 Increased longevity of wing tip vortex effect due to general becalming of surface wind speeds. Wind Wing tip vortex is particularly problematic for small planes taking off in quick succession after large aircraft. L G G Reparation programme to repair affected roofs, ATC procedures i.e. increased separation distances. E W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director 10 11 Change to prevailing wind direction affects runway utilisation and schedules. Disruption to airfield operations from lightning i.e. refuelling suspension, changes to flight routing. Wind speed/ direction Lighting All commercial aircraft are tested to a"demonstrated" maximum crosswind as part of their certification. Large aircraft are better able to handle cross winds than light aircraft. All commercial aircraft are tested for resilience to lightning strike as part of their certification. Planes can withstand lightning strike in the air but during take off and landing instrument loss would be critical hence the diversion of routes and stacks. L Adaptation Response Needed L G A Not able to be assessed due to lack of projection data. W Suspension of refuelling, changes to stack locations and departure routes, diversions. O W Watching Brief Airside Airside Director Watching Brief Airside Airside Director P Prepare: Research into spill clean up options currently used at airports in warmer climates to commence to develop policies robust to air temperatures exceeding 38 C.
What is EUROCONTROL doing? NM Survey of Weather Risk Developing ways to Alert the Network to Severe weather. Anticipation of severe weather provides the time to develop a managed response
Average Daily traffic 14
Delay causes 15
Weather impact on ATFM delay 16
Average daily ATFM delay 17
Delay locations 18
Reasons for Airport Delay 19
Weather tools today 20
The Network WX Resilience Roadmap Each good management starts with anticipation PRE-TACTICAL ANTICIPATION TACTICAL MANAGEMENT SCOPE: WX RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT 3d Information Nat Hazards WX Forecast WX Nowcast Translation: Thresholds Constraints Capacity Risks Impact Assessment Actual Demand Actual Resources Configurations Decision Making Options Simulation Execution Monitoring 70% likelihood for 45 knots wind at 3000ft at EDDF High Risk of Capacity Reduction by 20% Current RWY configuration and resources 5% reduction Can be accommodated without regulation 21
The Architecture of the tool EUROCONTROL NM AND OTHER STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATION Natural Hazards Information IMPACT MODELS INTERFACE FOR NOP INTEGRATION Print Valid Time 10-Oct 2013 16Z Last updated 10-Oct 2013 12Z Next update 10-Oct 2013 18Z Medium Risk High Risk EGLL LFPG TEXT OUTPUTS Weather Forecast PROBABILITY MODELS RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS VOLCANIC ASH HAZARD VALID 052114 ------------ RISK HIGH STAND ALONE HMI DISPLAY Print STAND ALONE HMI Valid Time 10-Oct 2013 16Z Last updated 10-Oct 2013 12Z Next update 10-Oct 2013 18Z Medium Risk High Risk EGLL LFPG Sector1 Hazard: Convection Risk Score: 0.83 Risk Level: High 22
Capacity Reduction Tables for each hazard and each airspace resource Performance reduction for each resource Visibility thresholds Ceiling thresholds Capacity Reduction: Generic Airport Aeronautical Visibility (m) ICAO Visibility Cal IIIC Cat IIIB Cat IIIA Cat II condition 2* IMC VMC (RVR<50) (RVR<200) (RVR<350) (RVR<550) Ceiling (ft) <50 <200 <350 <800 <1500 <5000 > 5,000 Cat IIIB <50 80% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% Cat IIIA <100 80% 60% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Cat II <200 80% 60% 50% 40% 40% 40% 40% VC2* <300 80% 60% 50% 40% 15% 15% 15% IMC <1500 80% 60% 50% 40% 15% 5% 5% VMC > 1500 80% 60% 50% 40% 15% 5% 0% Each cell contains performance reduction estimates (0 100%) provided by EUROCONTROL experts Top 5 Safety Priorities 23
Numerical forecast model 6 hours refresh rate, starting at 0100 Z 48 hours (at least) look-ahead horizon Hourly temporal resolution Top 5 Safety Priorities 24
Weather Resilience: Table view 25
Weather Resilience: Map View 26
Weather Resilience: Map & Table 27
18 months later Some stakeholders carrying out risk assessments. But others are not yet ready to move. Uncertainties remain: changes in demand; noise distribution; quantification of impacts. What do we need? Metrics, guidance, tool kit? 28
Conclusions Diverse range of potential climate impacts identified Many organisations are not yet considering this risk Local and network resilience is required Build awareness/support to address barriers to action Identify no-regrets and cost-effective measures EUROCONTROL NM: already building weather resilience Early action is the key to cost-effective resilience Thank you for your attention Questions? 29 29