2010-2011 Drought Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 20, 2011
Texas Annual Rainfall
Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010
Texas Annual Temperature 1895-2010
Notice Any Trends?
Texas Spring Rainfall 1895-2010 Less Spring rainfall since 1950
Texas Summer Rainfall 1895-2010 Greater summer rainfall since 1960
Texas Fall Rainfall 1895-2010 Greater Fall rainfall since 1960
Texas Winter Rainfall 1895-2010 Less winter rainfall since 1950
Texas Climate Trends Drier winter and spring seasons since 1950 Wetter summer and fall seasons since 1960 Overall Texas annual rainfall has been greater since 1960 compared 1895-1960 Drought was much more common, long term, and severe pre 1960 Annual temperatures have been above average since 1996
2010 Texas Rainfall
2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET
2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10-Sept 11)
2011 Drought Conditions
2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 52 (42 in 1998) Huntsville: 70 (43 in 1980) College Station: 66 (58 in 1917) Dallas: 62 (69 in 1980) Waco: 76 (63 in 1980) Austin Mabry: 84 (69 in 1925) San Antonio: 54 (59 in 2009) Del Rio: 81 (78 in 1953) Most Consecutive 100 degree days: Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980) Austin: 27 (21 in 2001) Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980) Waco: 44 (42 in 1980) Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever: July 2011: 87.2 July 1998: 86.5 July 1980: 86.3 August 1952: 85.7 Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on 8-27-11 Galveston: 100 on 8-27-11 for only the 7 th time ever July 2011 warmest month ever for the state of Texas: 87.2 degrees breaking the previous record of 86.5 degrees in July 1998 Hottest June-August period ever!
Lake Levels and Capacity Sept 19 2011 Drought Conditions Lake Conroe: -5.62 (75%) Lake Houston: -8.07 (61%) Lake Livingston: -3.30 (84%) Lake Somerville: -9.52 (42%) Lake Texana: -11.07ft (46%) Lake Buchanan: -28.24 (41%) Lake Travis: -49.81 (38%) Lake Georgetown: -23.16 (38%) Toledo Bend: -11.18 (61%) Sam Rayburn: -12.45 (58%) Lake Travis Lake Houston Lake Travis
Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB
2011 Drought Conditions Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34 September 9 March 30 Mandatory: 583 Voluntary: 294
Texas Wildfires April 2011 11/15/2010-9/12/2011 3.6 million acres burned 19,855 fires 48,613 structures threatened 4,376 structures burned 49 states responding 4 out of the 10 largest TX fires occurred in April 2011
Texas Wildfires Labor Day Weekend Bastrop Complex: 34,036 acres 2 fatalities 1554 homes lost 5,000 evacuated 1351 ground personnel, 14 aircraft 12 large fires, Labor Day 2011 Tri-County: 18,638 acres 63 homes lost (23 damaged) 8,000 evacuated 698 ground personnel, 16 aircraft
Texas Burn Ban Map: August 2011 251 out of 254 counties under burn bans, old record was 221 in 2006
Current Soil Moisture Conditions AUSTIN 751 GALVESTON 729 BRAZOS 762 BURLESON 775 BASTROP 789 COLORADO 773 FORT BEND 739 GRIMES 761 HARRIS 751 HOUSTON 771 JACKSON 765 LIBERTY 709 MADISON 773 MATAGORDA 738 MONTGOMERY 777 POLK 701 SAN JACINTO 763 TRINITY 745 WALKER 773 WALLER 758 WASHINGTON 774 WHARTON 756 KBDI Index
Top 5 Driest Feb-Sept 15 Periods for Houston: 2011 5.95 in (21.4% of normal) 1917-13.93 in 1930-15.44 in 1965 15.76 in 1956 15.93 in 2010-2011 Drought 7.98 inches of rain required at IAH to move to second place and 7.34 inches at Hobby Top 5 Driest Jan 1-Sep 15 Periods for Houston: 2011-11.00 in 1917-15.22 in 1965-18.38 in 1930 18.96 in 1901 19.06 in Texas Drought Rankings 1.1950-1957 (Sept 1956 peak) 2. 2010-? 3. 1916-1918 (Aug 1918 peak) 4. 1924-1925 (July 1925 peak) 5. 1999-2000 (Sept 2000 peak
2010-2011 Drought Rainfall Deficits (Oct 10 to Sept 15) Bellville: -26.55 Brenham: -26.80 College Station: -24.84 Columbus: -26.82 Conroe: -29.96 Freeport: -30.26 Hobby: -29.81 IAH: -28.87 Katy: -26.59 Livingston: -32.82 Matagorda: -28.28 Huntsville: -29.08 Rainfall Deficits since Hurricane Ike Galveston: -41.52 Houston IAH: -29.02 Houston Hobby: -34.98 College Station: -28.84 Richmond: -41.48 Bay City: -36.51 Wharton: -34.94 Tomball: -35.89 Have been in mild drought since Ike, but the last 8 months have been brutal October 2010 to August 2011: Driest October to August period ever for state of TX
2010-2011 Drought 2 nd worst in SE TX based on rainfall behind 1917-1918 (likely worst in some areas) 2 nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1917/1918 and 1950 s) Driest April ever at Houston (.11 of an inch), driest Spring ever for Houston Driest year to date ever for the City of Houston.32 of an inch of rain at Del Rio Oct 10-April 11 At least 5.1 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy 1.2 million trees lost, estimate 66 million in two years (10% of area canopy)
2010-2011 Drought Most areas would require 15-28 inches of rainfall to bring them to near normal conditions and end the drought
2011-2012 ENSO Forecast Models
La Nina Impacts
La Nina Impacts
2011 Drought Forecast
Rainfall Forecast 8-14 days 1 month 3 months
Questions